Thursday, October 18, 2018

2018 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 7

Week 7 was a much better showing for the coalition than Week 6 was, and thus we saunter on in our quest to correctly pick NFL games against the spread.

I redeemed myself following my worst week ever, taking three and a half of the six and a half disputed games between Adam and myself; his refusal to pick the Seahawks-Raiders game in London this past week gave me a free point and now has me up two games on him. Note that in the records below, the game Adam refused to pick is being counted as a loss; it's easier than trying to consider it a tie and means I don't have to refuse to pick a game to try and even things out. Disregard the fact that the ESPN standings have him within one game of me; those are off due to a picking error that is accounted for.

Looking at the rest of the group, Kristen is still hanging onto her narrow lead in the group that she's held since Week 2. Her comment: "You don't need to know anything about football. Also, football is stupid." I agree to an extent with her first comment, seeing as the standings speak for themselves, but I disagree with the second. She has her reasons though, and I fully understand them.

Her brother Joe remains just a game back, and they've got a reasonably comfortable cushion on the rest of us. You can see how we've all picked in relation to each other here. There are a couple fun stats from there that I want to share: collectively the group has gone hero 22 times; Adam's wife Jen has half of those (and got six of them right so far), and Joe remains the only one yet to go hero. But when we all agree... we suck. We have six consensus picks so far this year; we've missed all of them.

Moving on to Week 7, Adam and I disagree on seven games out of 14. Let's get to it!

Thursday Night

Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Denver has allowed almost 600 rushing yards the past two weeks, so I was tempted to take the points. But the Cardinals are only averaging 64 yards rushing a game so far this year, a number I might be able to match if you gave me the 119 touches Cardinals backs have gotten so far this year. Have you seen me run?!
Adam: Cardinals. Lines like this always make me pause, but I do not expect much from this, or any really, Thursday game. DJ is the only positive on the Cards, and that will carry the day.
Lucas note: Again, for reference, because I personally would not consider this a "positive" even though I think it's more an indictment against the Cardinals as a whole than against DJ:

Sunday Morning

Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
Lucas: Chargers. I almost forgot that London games tend to be blowouts. And with a basically nonexistent Titans offense, that should mean the Chargers are poised for another big day. Sorry again, friends across the pond.
Adam: Titans Chargers. Tennessee has played many games tighter than expected. The Chargers can be explosive and have Gordon and Allen. You know what, I’m changing my pick.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Lucas: Colts. I'm assuming this factors in that Josh Allen might not play, in which case they almost can't make this line high enough. HOW DOES NATHAN PETERMAN STILL HAVE A JOB?
Lucas note: Even if Derek Anderson gets named the starter, I stand by this.
Adam: Bills. The Bills clearly have gotten things cleaned up a little after the Week 1 disaster. The Colts don’t give me the warm fuzzies or anything, so taking the points and hoping.
Lucas note: So... hoping no Nathan Peterman?

New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears (+3.5)
Lucas: Patriots. I don't want to get too down on what is a pretty good Bears team, but if you give up 31 points in a losing effort while failing to sack Brock Freaking Osweiler, how do you think you're going to fare against Touchdown Tom? This is still a hot ticket in Chicago, I'm sure, but the hype has to have died down after what happened in South Beach.
Adam: Bears. After last week’s poor showing, not sure I can put much faith in the Bears... but alas, that is the pains of being a fan. The Bears defense should be much better than the Chiefs', and Trubisky is going to be thirsty to prove after an off week.

Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
Lucas: Browns. Yeah, the Browns got curbstomped by the Chargers this past week, but have you seen the Bucs' defense? Taking the points and the probable upset.
Adam: Buccaneers. Listen...do you hear that? Fitz, Fitz, Fitz... bring back the magic. OK, maybe not that bad, but still, I would take the Magic over the crabs any day.

Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins (+0.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. So when Brian Custer said Kenyon Drake was saying "Hallelujah," considering the game was at Hard Rock Stadium, I like to imagine it sounded something like this.
Adam: Lions. After a nice rest week for the Lions, hopefully getting some of those injuries taken care of, I see Stafford blowing up for 400 yards and four touchdowns. Rout is on, Lions by 20.

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Jets (+3.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Sam Darnold? Meet one of your tougher tests of the year so far.
Adam: Vikings. How is it that we live in a world where the Jets, yes the Jets, put up the 2nd most points last week? It is a world I don’t want to live in... it’s a cold, dark place.

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Carolina hasn't really lived up to its billing yet this year, and the Eagles just took advantage of a bad Giants team. I'll lay the points in Philly.
Adam: Eagles. Have to take the home favorite here. The Panthers laid a dud after the prior week’s late heroics, and Wentz is rounding into form.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)
Lucas: Texans. Jacksonville looks broken, so I'll take the points this week with the full knowledge that Blake Bortles is going off next week and the universe will be righted again.
Adam: Texans. I am going with either really low scoring, or Texans blow out. The Jags lost to the other Texas team, the Cowgirls, last week in quite disastrous form. Bortles is just bad, and Fournette is still out.
Lucas note: Adam spelled Fournette as "Fortnette," so I went looking for some sort of Fortnite reference tied to Fournette. Alas, the Internet disappointed me, so here's the closest I could find: a Juju Smith-Schuster template skin or something. I don't even know what's going on. Get off my lawn.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I'm hesitant to bet against Drew Brees, but it's a road game against the top defense in the league... and Joe Flacco hasn't been too bad and thus could probably keep up with what Brees and company can throw at his defense. Laying the points.
Adam: Ravens. Going out a little bit of a limb. I am sure Lucas may have already informed you, but in case not, Brees is just a different QB on the road versus at home. Eagle Man makes a visit and Mancow will watch Brees lay an egg.
Lucas note: Adam asked for a picture. This deserves the actual video in all its glory. And also the original.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-1.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I don't get Dallas. Well, I take that back; I kind of do. They're going to be 8-8 and can't throw for crap, but they can beat teams they're supposed to as well as some they're maybe not supposed to a la this past week. Getting a point makes this even better.
Adam: Redskins. One decent score does not make you a less-than-a-field-goal team.

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (+10.5)
Lucas: 49ers. I'm only a week or two late at this point, but while the Rams are the last remaining unbeaten, they've looked mortal the past few weeks. With a large line in play against a 49ers team that can take advantage of banged up/bad defenses, I'll take the points at home.
Adam: 49ers. I suspect this game may get out of hand early and the Rams can give their starters a little bit of an early second half of the first quarter of the first half the game rest. Then the 49ers come with a last minute backdoor cover.

Sunday Night

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. This pick follows two gambling rules: Don't bet against Patrick Mahomes, and Always bet against Andy Dalton at night. Also for the millionth time, Vontaze Burfict is a thug who needs to be banned from the NFL, especially if his alleged threat towards Juju Smith-Schuster turns out to be true.
Adam: Chiefs. Kermit FTW. Ribbit.

Monday Night

New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Good to see the sentient derp didn't leave with Ben McAdoo.
Adam: Giants. I do NOT like this line. Julio still has yet to find the endzone this year... that’s just terrible management of the game by Atlanta. I still expect the Falcons to win, just by a field goal or less.

Records So Far
Lucas: 40-53 (7-8 last week)
Adam: 38-55 (6-9 last week)
Geoffrey: 39-54 (5-10 last week)
Joe: 46-47 (7-8 last week)
Aiden: 42-51 (9-6 last week)
Kristen: 47-46 (7-8 last week)
Jen: 41-52 (7-8 last week)
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