We all had at least .500 weeks, but the gap at the top is almost as small as you can get. Adam took three of five disputed games last week to open his lead up to three games with 32 to play. He's led wire to wire this season, at least on me, though he's only up two points on Geoffrey Clark for first overall, regardless of what ESPN says. The correct standings (with my and Adam's picks being based on what happens here, adjusting for mistakes on ESPN made by both of us), as well as a breakdown of all our picks in relation to each other, can be found here.
I think it's important to note, in the interest of full disclosure, that Adam and I do not compare picks before entering them in. We each come up with our picks independently, with me making sure to at least get my picks in, though not necessarily my rationales, ahead of Adam. When he sends them to me, I want to make sure I'm not making picks based on what he's doing, or going insane over the final two weeks by looking at his picks, then going contrarian in a desperate effort to supplant him. I know my dad has said he also does his picks first before reading this weekly post so his aren't colored by the same biases. I assume the same is true of Geoff.
With the disclaimer out of the way, let's get to the picks. Adam and I disagree on six games out of 16 this week.
Saturday Afternoon
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I really, REALLY want to take the points on this one. But Baltimore has shown they absolutely abuse terrible offenses, and I see more of the same in this one.
Adam: Ravens. I'll lay the points against this pretty bad Colts team.
Saturday Night
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (+6.5)
Lucas: Vikings. I'm completely behind the shutting down of Aaron Rodgers the rest of the way. No need to risk a serious injury to him, but it's about the only smart decision Packers brass has made in recent years. Fire everyone.
Adam: Vikings. I mean, the celebration is going strong. Lucas, between your sniffles, tell me the last time the fudge Packers did not make the playoffs.
Lucas note: Don't make me go full meatball.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Don't get me wrong; I fully expect that two headed monster of Ingram and Kamara to lead the Saints to victory, but I'm going to take the points. If this were a couple points lower, I'd probably flip to the Saints.
Adam: Saints. Didn't these teams play like 2 weeks ago? Bad scheduling, but Brees at home tho.
Lucas note: Second meeting in 17 days, yep. I'll agree, someone at the league office done goofed. I blame Goodell.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-12.5)
Lucas: Patriots. The lesson, as always:
Adam: Patriots. Not sure how yet, but I suspect Belichick will find a way to cheat no matter what...never count out touchdown tom— Jon Bois (@jon_bois) September 3, 2015
Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears (-6.5)
Lucas: Browns. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA THE BEARS ARE FAVORED HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! But seriously, 0-7 straight up as a favorite under John Fox. Have fun giving the Browns their only win of the year!
Adam: Browns. STRAIGHT UP, B&@r$ Sux.
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5)
Lucas: Lions. Reports of Marvin Lewis' resignation are... what's the opposite of premature? Postmature? Because it sure looked like he quit against the Vikings this past week, considering CBS flexed out of that game at halftime in Chicago.
Adam: Lions. Really, this is a line play. The Lions only give 4.5, I'll take that all day.
Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins (-3.5)
Lucas: Redskins. Beating up on a bad Colts team doesn't mean I'm going to take the points with you against a better Redskins team. That said, I feel dirty taking Washington; Zach Brown is a thug who deserves to be suspended on the basis of this tweet alone.
Adam: Broncos. Going out a little I think on this one. Maybe Denver will put it together one week.Tell him don't play.... cause I'm always headhunting— Zach Brown (@ZachBrown_55) December 18, 2017
Los Angeles Rams @ Tennessee Titans (+6.5)
Lucas: Rams. Let's see, a good Rams team against a Titans team that isn't as good as their record says they are, with a touchdown line and a division title up for grabs? Yeah, why not?
Adam: Rams. Gurley had how many touchdowns?! 4? Wow. Just wow.
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. I can't help but feel that this line is an overreaction to the Chiefs beating up on the Chargers this past week (hold that Chargers thought) and that double digits is way too high, even if it's against a Dolphins team that isn't all that good.
Adam: Dolphins. You know what, I have been hard on old Jay (cannot believe I just said that). ...eff it, Fins.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Jets (+6.5)
Lucas: Jets. I mean, if the Jets can go into the Superdome and cover a too high spread, they can probably cover a touchdown spread over a Chargers team that feels like it should be better than it is... right?
Adam: Jets. They have been playing well all season and I'll take them late in the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-9.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Carolina has made a habit of letting teams back in games the last two weeks, so I'm taking the cushion of the points. Also, Thomas Davis deserved both games of his suspension, and [expletive] the NFL for reducing it on appeal. It's the latest in a line of events that proves the league doesn't give a crap about player safety. They need to institute a version of the college targeting rule, and Goodell needs to be fired.
Adam: Panthers. Greg Olsen is back and I did not play him. FML.Dirty hit by Thomas Davis. Yeesh. pic.twitter.com/tjO7DYJd28— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) December 17, 2017
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (+4.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. So far this season, Garoppolo has beaten the Bears, Texans, and Titans. Not exactly a murderer's row of defenses. Have fun with the Jaguars, bro.
Adam: 49ers. Taking the old Pats backup over the grown a$$ man who cannot seem to give a high 5.
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. BAH GAWD, THAT'S ZEKE ELLIOTT'S MUSIC!
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Tempted as I am to take the points after the Giants gave the Eagles a scare, I can't do it. Rivalry game at home versus a meaningless game on the road? I'll lay the points.
Adam: Giants. Praying for Eli.
Lucas note: ...why?
Monday Afternoon
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans (+9.5)
Lucas: Steelers. I missed the play in real time, but based on the way the catch rule is written... I get why Jesse James got his go-ahead touchdown overturned. I feel like they need to fix this rule, but I'm not sure how you'd go about it and have it be applied consistently everywhere on the field. Fortunately, I don't think they need to worry about anything like this this week.
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Monday Night
Oakland Raiders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
Lucas: Eagles. *checks weather forecast* It's okay, Santa! It's supposed to be like a 40 degree high with no snow in the forecast (following a couple days in the 50s with rain) so you shouldn't get snowballs chucked at you!
Adam: Raiders. Anything but Nick Foles... cannot stand Napoleon.
Records So Far
Lucas: 114-110 (8-8 last week)
Adam: 117-107 (9-7 last week)
Scott: 108-116 (10-6 last week)
Geoffrey: 115-109 (8-8 last week)
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