Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Announcing, Insider Information, and "Wakeyleaks"

Photo by Marc Lebryk (USA TODAY Sports)
If you're a play by play man, color commentator, or other announcer for a sports team, let's face it: you've got a pretty awesome job. You get paid to watch sports, and in a lot of instances you get a look at a team that most people can only dream of.

Which is why the story out of Wake Forest is just so bizarre. Yesterday the news broke of an investigation into leaked game planning information for the Demon Deacons' football team pinned the release of insider information on the team's radio voice Tommy Elrod. As a background, Elrod played at Wake Forest, then coached there for a number of years. But in 2014 when a new head coach came aboard, he wasn't retained, and instead moved to the broadcast booth.

So what's the motivation here? Money and revenge are the two theories on the table. I don't know how common people with inside access are bribed for this sort of information or if so, how much money would typically be offered. Revenge seems more likely; you lose a job for seemingly no reason other than you aren't a guy known by the new boss, it's not hard to imagine you'd want to get back at him. But leaking information to opponents is unheard of.

Needless to say, Elrod has been fired. I wouldn't be surprised if he's effectively blacklisted from working in college football ever again considering his actions. I hope for his sake his revenge was worth it.

That's what's so puzzling to me. I've got an in at North Central for both the men's and women's basketball teams. Especially on the women's side: Michelle Roof has been very gracious with me about allowing me access to the program. Obviously I don't set foot in the locker room or anything like that, but I've got an open invitation to practices, and I've been a guest at the last three postseason banquets. She's mentioned some things that I'm sure aren't supposed to be public knowledge, and so I do my best to not mention a lot of those things on here or elsewhere online. I know I'm in a favored position, and I'm not going to do anything to jeopardize that.

And even if I had done something like that, what good does revenge by leaking inside information do? It makes me look bad, you could argue it makes the programs that take advantage of it look bad, and you get a whole scandal like what "Wakeyleaks" has turned into, even though the name is fantastic. The lesson to be learned here is that when you have a privileged position, don't do anything to jeopardize it. And if you get snubbed, revenge is probably not the best answer.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 14

We have just four weeks and 64 games to go. I need to get my butt in gear here.

I'm back in the basement after a subpar Week 13. Fortunately for me, Adam and I ended up splitting our disputed games evenly for the second straight week, but I've fallen back down into a tie for last place. Logan remains in first place in our group, holding a four game lead over Adam. Much of this is thanks to his dominance in minority games (games where he and one other person picked a team). You can view a full breakdown of those picks here.

Now that we're back to a full 16 game slate, I have to really break out if I want to avoid last place. This week, Adam and I disagree on eight games. Let's get to it!

Monday, December 5, 2016

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Official Bracket

Ladies and gentlemen, it has all come down to this.

14 weeks and hundreds of games have narrowed down the 128 teams in college football. The ten conferences have crowned their champions. All that remains is to take them, and six deserving at large teams, and put them into a bracket to determine our national champion.

This is the system designed by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan in their classic depicted here: a more equitable college football playoff where everyone gets an opportunity to prove they belong. We also add to the excitement and enhance the regular season by giving home field advantage to the higher seeds for the first three rounds.

In their system, a selection committee still decided the field. I don't have those resources at my disposal, so I instead take a number of metrics and use these to help me in my decision making process: rankings of Non Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), and computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). I organically try to combine all of these to build the fairest playoff bracket that I can.

And so, without further ado, here is your 2016 Death to the BCS Playoff field, seeded from 1-16.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 14

I've got a lot to catch up on.

This was Championship Weekend, with eight conference title games and a de facto title game being played, while two conferences wrapped up their regular seasons. This leaves me with one final batch of Playoff Points to calculate.

Most teams' numbers will end up remaining the same compared to last week; because not every conference has a title game I don't calculate conference championship games in Playoff Points. This means no receiving points for the victory, and no update to the victors' win totals or losers' loss totals. Some of these games may boost teams' scores based on early season matchups though, which is why I have to run the numbers one final time.

If you want one final reminder of how this works, my season introduction post has a primer on this metric. Let's check the stats one final time!


Game Notes: (MBK) Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (12/3/16)

Final Score
NCC 84, IWU 75

Game Summary
This was a game that took a little while to really get going, and while the Cardinals (4-1, 1-0) were able to open the scoring and take an early lead, the Titans (5-1, 0-1) started hitting jumpers to grab the lead and control of this one. With foul trouble plaguing the Cardinals, the Titans were able to build a nine point lead with about five and a half minutes to play. But the Cardinals would not be denied, embarking on a 9-2 run to close the gap and even took the lead late in the half before a three pointer gave the Titans a 35-33 advantage heading to the locker room. The Titans returned to the floor guns blazing, pushing the lead back up to seven a couple times and maintaining control before the Cardinals finally tied the game back up a little over six minutes in. A quick two point lead a minute later was immediately wiped out on a three, and a bit of a back and forth ensued. The Titans seemed poised to control the ending with a three with 4:24 to play, but a conventional three point play sparked an 8-0 Cardinal run, and North Central was able to put the game away from there.
(skip ahead to about the 2:40:00 mark for the men's game)

Key Stats
  • Alex Sorenson (NCC): 9-21 FG (2-7 3PT), 5-6 FT; 25 pts, 5 reb (2 off), 1 stl. This was a pretty quiet 25 for Sorenson, but in terms of minutes it was an efficient 25 points. Sorenson was plagued by bulls*** officiating foul trouble and had to sit for a big chunk of the first half, as well as significant time in the second half, but he hit some key buckets when he did see the floor to help keep the Cardinals in the game.
  • Erwin Henry (NCC): 4-7 FG (1-4 3PT), 8-8 FT; 17 pts, 13 reb (1 off), 5 ast, 1 blk. Erwin definitely rebounds bigger than his size and has shown such this season, but I was flabbergasted when I heard his stat line after the game. 13 rebounds and five assists is an incredible floor game. He hit a few key shots to keep the Cardinals around early in the game, then hit eight straight free throws, including a pair of technical free throws, to ice the game.
  • Trevor Seibring (IWU): 6-13 FG, 4-7 FT; 16 pts, 6 reb (2 off). Seibring is Wesleyan's best player, and was the guy to stop if the Cardinals wanted to win. The Titans got some key contributions from a few of their guards to help their early control in this one, but North Central did a pretty good job overall of containing Seibring, though he did show his skills more than once. He also flopped to draw an offensive foul on Sorenson, which was his second of the game and forced Todd Raridon to pull him out.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • Wheaton 82 (4-2, 1-0), @ Elmhurst 69 (2-4, 0-1)
  • North Park 87 (5-0, 1-0), @ Augustana 78 (5-2, 0-1)
  • @ Carthage 70 (4-2, 1-0), Millikin 59 (0-6, 0-1)
  • BYE: Carroll (4-1, 0-0)
Final Thoughts
I usually don't like to talk about this a ton, especially after a win, but the officiating in this game was awful. Both head coaches were barking at the referees all night, and while I can't recall any specific "NCC got away with that one" calls, the Titans benefited from this as well. I already mentioned the Seibring flop, but Sorenson's third foul was also an iffy one. The team argued about his fourth as well because he was "in the circle" and vertical, but he had also jumped, and I didn't really have any issue with that foul call. Fans on both sides were upset with how the game was called, so maybe it was officiated "fairly," albeit poorly.

Either way, this was a huge win for North Central after a tough loss to Platteville on Tuesday. The slow-developing offense didn't kill them in this one, and Jack Bronec played pretty well in foul trouble relief of Sorenson. Jagger Anderson also came off the bench in this one, but he responded very well to the role. It wasn't North Central's best game, but it was enough. NCC closes out their five game homestand on Wednesday as they welcome in Carthage. I will not be at the mic on Wednesday due to another commitment, but you can catch the game on nctv17.com at 7pm and see the Cardinals back in action.

Game Notes: (WBK) Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (12/3/16)

Final Score
IWU 118, NCC 113 (OT)

Game Summary
This was another instant classic to add to the rivalry's illustrious history, as an early 5-0 run by the Cardinals (3-2, 0-1) gave them a 5-2 lead, but the Titans (4-3, 1-0) responded with six straight, and the seesaw battle was on. The Cardinals led by as many as seven late in the first quarter, but only carried a 24-23 lead into the second quarter. The Cardinals hit three straight threes to give themselves a six point lead, but the Titans would not go away, building a five point lead of their own. North Central stormed back and built a six point lead, but blew a pair of layups in the closing seconds that kept it a 57-51 lead at the break. The Cardinals led for most of the third quarter, going up by as many as eight points, but the Titans exploded for a 13-1 run to flip the script, though the Cardinals kept it close, only trailing 81-79 after three. The Titans remained just out of reach for most of the quarter, possessing an answer for every Cardinal basket and they would lead by as many as six before the Cardinals finally pushed over the hump and were the first to the century mark. The Titans bounced back again, taking a pair of two point leads in the final minute-plus, but the Cardinals forced overtime on a layup with two seconds to go. The Titans opened the scoring with a three almost a minute into the extra session and would lead by as many as five before the Cardinals came back to tie the game at 113 with 1:18 to play. But the Titans got their game-winning bucket with a minute to play, and the Cardinals were unable to mount a final comeback.

Key Stats
  • NCC 2nd Half: 13-23 FT (56.5%). I talked to Michelle Roof after the game briefly, and we lamented letting this one get away. The Cardinals got a little sloppy in the second half, but this stat was the one that killed me. In fairness, the Titans missed seven free throws of their own in that half, but with the Cardinals controlling the game for much of the third quarter and being unable to take advantage of free opportunities, this is a loss that might linger a little bit.
  • Molly McGraw (IWU): 13-29 FG (4-8 3PT), 7-9 FT; 37 pts, 6 reb (2 off), 4 ast, 3 blk, 3 stl. McGraw is probably the Titans' best player, and she showed why Saturday night. Usually with The System it's forwards who do most of the scoring damage (and to be fair, this did happen too), but once in a while a guard will have the game of her life against the Cardinals. McGraw had hers, hitting the three to get the Titans started in overtime after scoring 20 points in the second half. The fact that she also filled the rest of the stat sheet speaks to how great a player she is.
  • Mayson Whipple (NCC): 12-22 FG (3-9 3PT), 2-4 FT; 29 pts, 5 reb (2 off), 8 ast. Mayson all but keyed North Central's comeback in this one, as she went into attack mode as the game went on. Her eight assists are a season high, and mark the sixth time in the past two seasons she's reached at least eight in a single game. Mayson also hit the clutch floater to force overtime.
North Central System Watch
  • IWU Turnovers: 28. The Titans are one of the most disciplined teams in the country, so their turnover numbers against The System are going to be a little bit lower than most teams the Cardinals face. But North Central forced 21 of those turnovers in the first 20 minutes, so credit Mia Smith for making adjustments at halftime and to her players for executing as the game went on. Of the 28 assists, 19 of those came off Cardinal steals, led by four for Paula Zerante, while four other players registered two apiece.
  • NCC 3PT: 14-51 (27.5%). This is about the normal pace North Central ends up on, though it ended up about a point and half lower than the season mark to date. North Central had stretches of relatively hot shooting, but not like the five in a row they hit to put Piedmont away a couple weeks ago.
  • NCC Charges Drawn: 2. Anita Sterling picked up one late in the game, but someone else drew an offensive foul earlier on, and I didn't quite catch who. But it was good to see Anita get back to her usual self.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • Wheaton 71 (5-1, 1-0), @ Elmhurst 53 (6-1, 0-1)
  • @ Carthage 96 (4-3, 1-0), Millikin 80 (4-2, 0-1)
  • @ Augustana 88 (6-0, 1-0), North Park 85 (3-2, 0-1)
  • UW-Oshkosh 84, @ Carroll 51 (0-7, 0-0)
Final Thoughts
I mentioned it already, but this one hurt. North Central always seems to match up well with Illinois Wesleyan, as the Cardinals had won four of the last six matchups going into Saturday, and the prior few games at Merner against the team in green had been phenomenal. This one gets added to the lore, but with the wrong outcome. Hopefully though, going blow for blow for 45 minutes with one of the country's best teams will bode well going forward.


Over on the Wesleyan side, my best wishes go out to guard Gabrielle Holness, who suffered an injury to her right leg in the second quarter. She had to be helped back to the bench and was on crutches the rest of the evening. I made a point to go over and wish her well before I left for the evening, and she seemed to be in decent spirits (though in fairness, a win probably helps). It's my sincere hope that she'll be able to see the court again before season's end.


Back to North Central, things don't get any easier, as they head up Naper Boulevard to take on Wheaton College on Wednesday and try to snap Wheaton's current win streak in the rivalry at 14.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 13

Thanksgiving was largely kind to the coalition, as we chug along to the conclusion of the third quarter of our season. We like our group, Logan is our leader in the clubhouse, and we have a lot of football left to play.

I continue to be fascinated by the breakdown of our group's picks so far. Adam has had tremendous success in hero picks, but he finds himself three games out of the lead at this stage. Last week he had Aiden pick for him, and the kid came through pretty well: of our record 12 disputed games, we split those evenly down the middle. Aiden also went hero five times, winning three games. You should be very proud of your son, Adam.

We get our final byes this week, which makes sense because the number of games played is odd. I also had taken a game out of Grant's picks last week because he forgot to pick the Thursday night game in Week 11. Logan did that with the Detroit-Minnesota game last week, but the rest of us were split between the two teams. So I took my dad's advice and counted those as losses.

This week, Adam and I disagree on only six games out of the 15 being played. Let's see if I can climb out of this fourth place hole.