This past week was kind of a mixed bag. Joe was tied for the week's best mark in the group as he took three of four from me and three of five from Adam, Adam took four of seven from me. As a result, Adam moves a tiny bit further ahead of me while Joe pulls into what is now a three way tie for second, with the rest of the group just one game behind us.
You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. The status quo of the group remaining just a hair above .500 on consensus picks continues; meanwhile it was a good week for hero picks, with four of the five from last week hitting, raising the group's record when going hero to 17-11 through six weeks. Geoffrey is the only one below .500 in such games, and Adam's lead is largely based on his usual nonsense of picking the most hero games and winning more often than not.
As we look ahead to Week 7, Joe and I disagree on just two games, while Adam is more in his usual range of six disputed with me and eight with Joe out of 15. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Gahnta.
Adam: Bengals. At home, with Old Man Flacco getting a full week to prep I like the cover. Maybe... MAYBE a back door win. Also I wonder if A A Ron and Old Man Flacco ever met before, if the did it would have been like 15 years ago.
Adam note: For the record I looked this up: three times prior, 2019, 2013 and 2009, so 16 years ago.
Lucas note: I probably could have told you "Yes, they've met" without the lookup, but I wouldn't have known the exact number or years.
Joe: Steelers.
Sunday Morning
Los Angeles Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. At first I took the Rams, but I had a memory stir about Sunshine and London games. If I interpret the data from Pro Football Reference correctly and take his six "morning" games to be games in London (probably a safe bet), he's a better quarterback overseas than he is on the whole.
| Game | Game | Game | Game | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Rush | Rush | Rush | Rush | Rush | Rush | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split | Value | G | W | L | T | Cmp | Att | Inc | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate | Sk | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | A/G | Y/G | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | A/G | Y/G |
| League | NFL | 66 | 26 | 40 | 0 | 1417 | 2245 | 828 | 63.12 | 15139 | 77 | 51 | 84.7 | 125 | 868 | 6.74 | 6.41 | 34.0 | 229.4 | 259 | 1178 | 4.55 | 16 | 3.9 | 17.8 |
| Split | Value | G | W | L | T | Cmp | Att | Inc | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate | Sk | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | A/G | Y/G | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | A/G | Y/G |
| Time | Morning | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 129 | 194 | 65 | 66.49 | 1401 | 7 | 3 | 93.2 | 14 | 95 | 7.22 | 7.25 | 32.3 | 233.5 | 26 | 129 | 4.96 | 0 | 4.3 | 21.5 |
Lucas note: I left the "at home" part in even though it's technically misleading, because London has more or less become the Jags' second home.
Joe: Rams.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears (-5.5)
Lucas: Bears. I'm taking their Monday night result as the football gods rewarding them for dealing with, at least from what I was seeing on social media, absolutely awful officiating. Hopefully for their sake they won't need to worry about that again this week as they get an actively tanking team at home. It also helps that Bears fans won't have to hear Troy Aikman be an idiot.
Adam: Bears. Even with trash calls and a blocked field goal, the Bears were able to prevail in an MNF thriller... Ok, maybe not "thriller" but a Win is a Win. They're getting a much softer spot here at home. Bears should roll.Ben Johnson calls out Troy Aikman for overly negative Caleb Williams commentary https://t.co/q3ZId29WaP pic.twitter.com/NlemK2H8ow
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) October 14, 2025
Joe: Bears.
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Lucas: Browns. Only because Mike McDaniel somehow still hasn't been fired yet and this is a line that says these teams are dead even. Which is... maybe fair?
Adam: Dolphins. Tough game, and at the beginning of the season this would be an easy pick for the Fins. But even on the road I trust more in anything Miami even with their injuries than anything Browns.
Joe: Browns.
New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans (+7.5)
Lucas: Patriots. To quote Cam Ward, even with Brian Callahan being told to eff off, "I'ma keep it 100, we ass." Doesn't help that this is a Mike Vrabel Revenge Game candidate.
Adam: Titans. I hate this pick. It will either be a close game (like 3 or fewer points) or an absolute blowout. But the Titans did the right thing and fired their coach, so this is a win one for the skipper type of game.
Joe: Patriots.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)
Lucas: Raiders. Good to see the league is back on its BS with questionable calls favoring its golden team. Gotta get them back in playoff position somehow, after all. This game is really just me taking the points because I could see the Raiders either keeping it close or back door covering.
Adam: Chiefs. You know KC will get all the calls especially at home.
Joe: Raiders.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings (+1.5)
Lucas: Eagles. With a week and a half to prep I bet they bounce back.
Adam: Eagles. Another line I hate. I can see Minnesota winning outright coming off the bye after their 2 week jaunt in Ireland/Engalnd. But Philly can play Filthy. They tush pushed four times in a row and they will win.
Joe: Eagles.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets (+1.5)
Lucas: Panthers. Mainly because Adam, Joe, and I all had more net passing yards in our pajamas on Sunday morning that Justin Fields did for the Jets.
Adam: Panthers. Riding high on the Panthers after beating the Heiferladies. Oh so glorious.
Joe: Panthers.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
New York Giants @ Denver Broncos (-7.5)
Lucas: Giants.
Adam: Giants. The 7.5 line scares me. New York has showed up against above average opponents and got a win against Filthy last Thursday. I say they keep it close and cover.
Joe: Giants.
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
Lucas: Colts. Almost thought about going with LA to harken back to the day of Mike Scifres: Champion Punter of the Universe, but the Chargers are too much of pain at this point.
Adam: Chargers. This should be a good game, but with the exception of their early win vs the Broncos, Indy hasn't beaten anyone of consequence. You could argue the same for the Chargers, but at home I’ll give them the nod.
Joe: Colts.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys (+1.5)
Lucas: Commanders.
Adam: Commanders. Easy, next. You should have heard the FAN boyz crying about losing to the Panthers. Maybe it's because you are not very good.
Joe: Cowboys.
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (+6.5)
Lucas: Packers. Maybe a bit of a risk laying a touchdown, but can we really take the points with a team that prompted UrinatingTree to pull a deep cut from a 90's cult British TV phenomenon starring, of all people, Sean Bean?
Sunday Night
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Mainly because the Niners can't stay healthy.
Adam: Falcons. I heard a question on the FAN on Wednesday. They have a segment called NFL Fact or Fiction. Basically, someone asks a question and the other hosts say if they buy into the statement or not. The question Wednesday about Atlanta was if Bijan singlehandedly carries them to the playoffs. I say fiction. They are gelling as a team and they all contribute.
Lucas note: Almost sounds like "Shot or No Shot" on Kap and J-Hood on ESPN 1000 out here. But to answer the question, I'd agree with Fiction. Between Michael Penix playing competently at quarterback and the Falcons defense *checks notes* being really, really good?
| Tot | Tot | Tot | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Rush | Rush | Rush | Rush | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | PF | Yds | Ply | Y/P | TO | FL | 1stD | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | NY/A | 1stD | Att | Yds | TD | Y/A |
| Opp. Stats | 100 | 1267 | 262 | 4.8 | 8 | 3 | 75 | 75 | 130 | 697 | 7 | 5 | 4.8 | 40 | 118 | 570 | 2 | 4.8 |
| Lg Rank Defense | 7 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 27 |
Monday Night
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions (-5.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. I remember like a decade ago my semi-hot NFL take was that the Lions had a thuggish culture perpetuated by Jim Schwartz's time as head coach (see prime example: Ndamukong Suh being Ndamukong Suh) and I remember saying something at the end of Jim Caldwell and his vacant expression's first season in the Motor City about his failure to do away with that culture. Too much time has passed for that culture to still be around, because Dan Campbell is good at what he does, but I saw the Brian Branch debacle and I couldn't help but think back to those days. He deserves his suspension and they deserve to lose this game to MVP Baker Mayfield. Also, the fact that the suspension was upheld by Jordy Nelson just warms the cockles of my heart.
Adam: Lions. I know everyone is high on Baker, and I get it, maybe an argument for MVP. But the Lions are going to come in hot after the loss to KC last week. I think Campbell has them studying their biting the knees drill and take the Bucs down.The 1-game suspension for #Lions DB Brian Branch was upheld by hearing officer Jordy Nelson (yes, that Jordy Nelson).
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 16, 2025
He’s out Monday night vs. Tampa. https://t.co/Mp4j0z20MQ
Joe: Buccaneers.
Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. If I've said it once, I've said it a million times: shady [expletive] happens on Monday nights in Seattle. No, I'm still not over it.
Adam: Seahawks. Not much to say here. Seattle is rocking and got to roll with the home town player, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is from my area. He went to the competing high school to where my kids go, but hometown guy none the less.
Lucas note: Rockwall represent! Speaking of, let's hear from the guy who lives there.
Joe: Seahawks.
Records So Far
Lucas: 45-48 (6-9 last week)
Adam: 51-42 (7-8 last week)
Joe: 45-48 (8-7 last week)
Geoffrey: 44-49 (5-10 last week)
Jim: 44-49 (4-11 last week)
Tom: 45-48 (8-7 last week)
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