The first full fall after I'd started COAS, I'd had the idea of picking NFL games against the spread. After a couple seasons of a partnership for that, I went somewhat solo in that every pick appears here, but it's never been something I've wanted to do alone. And so for the 14th season, I'll be picking games with a coalition.
Returning once again are good friends Adam Quinn and Joe Klecka. Adam won the column last year by a fairly narrow margin, ending my run of Even Year Magic. Just four games separated the three of us in total, and we all finished above .500. I can't complain.
So as we've done in years past, after ESPN announces its initial lines on Tuesday afternoons, the three of us will make our picks independently. Adam and I will provide a rationale, whether it be based on on-field observations, statistics, hatred of throwback uniforms, or the moon (no, really).
In addition to the three of us, we are once again joined by 2024 group champion and my co-host from Then There Were Two: A History of the World Series Geoffrey Clark, along with Joe's uncle Jim. My son Matthew opted out for this season despite having a pretty good 2024.
As we get back to it, Joe disagrees with Adam and I on seven games apiece, while Adam and I dispute six out of the first 16. Let's get back to it!
Thursday Night
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Even more so in the aftermath of Jerrah doing Jerrah things. Please live forever, sir.
Adam: Eagles. Lol Jerra gonna Jerra like it’s *checks watch* the past 20 years.
Joe: Cowboys.
Friday Night
Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Hopefully the turf will be better than last year. Even if it's not (or maybe even because it's potentially not), the BS is real.
Adam: Chargers. Originally had KC here, but Week 1 is always so unpredictable. If Herbert can rebound after a mid 2024, this should be a good game. And getting points, thank you.
Joe: Chiefs.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Because I don't trust this dude... yet.
Joe: Buccaneers.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Don't need to worry about your crappy defense (Trey Hendrickson aside, anyway) when the Browns have like five quarterbacks and none of them are all that good. I look forward to Joe Flacco returning to Elite status to shut me up.
Adam: Bengals. Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls of all ages: step right up for the Battle of S***sville USA! [ehm]... I was just informed its called Ohio. Cincy by a mile, Burrow for MVP.
Joe: Browns.
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts (-0.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. Seriously, Indy? Daniel Jones?
Adam: Dolphins. It's tempting to take Daniel “Giraffe Neck” Jones. But even with Tua “If I Only Had a Brain” Tagovailoa on the other side, this seems like a pretty good bet.
Joe: Dolphins.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots (-3.5)
Lucas: Raiders. This one's honestly more of a line play. Maybe I'm underestimating the Pats this early (and let's be honest, this bit me last year too), but I'll take the points this time.
Adam: Patriots. I have no sense of this game. I don’t know much about either team other than I think they like the Pats on GMFB, so I’ll go with them.
Joe: Raiders.
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints (+3.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. When's the heavy armor gonna start rolling down Bourbon Street? The Saints are like half a decade overdue for a tear down/rebuild.
Adam: Cardinals. NoLa, more like No One. Arizona in an easy road win. Also, Arizona is my points survivor pick this week. (Before you yell, it’s not a standard survivor; most points wins and you get points based on the reverse of the 1st round draft order.)
Lucas note: Why would I yell at you? Seemed like a good pick to me even without the context.
Joe: Saints.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets (+2.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Because the 9-8 Super Bowl is inevitable, especially with Aaron Rodgers.
Adam: Steelers. Because the Jets have Fields. Oh eff, but Pittsburgh has A A Ron... even an old and decrepit Rodgers is better than the best version of Fields.
Joe: Steelers.
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-6.5)
Lucas: Commanders. I don't think really anyone expected the Commanders to make the leap they did last year. A repeat of getting to the NFC title game is certainly in the cards if Jayden Daniels can make a leap in his sophomore year.
Adam: Giants. I am calling this my upset special of the week. I like Wilson to find his kitchen and start cookin’ again. In a divisional match up, G-Men Lets Stomp!?!? We can work on that.
Joe: Giants.
Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Going with the home one and moving on. I trust both of these teams less than I do Derpy from K-Pop Demon Hunters.
Adam: Panthers. Here are another two teams I don’t know much about. I know Sunshine is in Jacksonville and had a meh year last year, and the Panthers were worse than the Jags, but I am seeing a fair bit about the Carolina run game at least that could make them interesting. So I’ll roll the dice with them here.
Joe: Jaguars.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos (-6.5)
Lucas: Broncos. RIP Will Levis Memes. We hardly knew ye.
Adam: Broncos. Who is the Titans' QB, Levis is not there right? *Checking my phone* nope, Cam Ward. Another rookie making his debut, I’ll lay the points a mile high. Heh heh, get it?
Lucas note:
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (+1.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Law of Averages dictates that the Niners have to not be injured to hell this year (even though it seems to happen every year).
Adam: 49ers. Sammy D taking his ghost hunt to the west coast, but not today. I like San Francisco on the road in a close and exciting game.
Joe: 49ers.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (+0.5)
Lucas: Packers. I was prepared to go the other way with this because Dan Campbell owns the Packers except on Thanksgiving under a waxing gibbous moon. But much like I did in Green Bay's 2018 opener, I flipped with the news of a trade involving a highly touted pass rusher. This time it benefits my team and I am giddy for Micah Parsons. Let's effing go.
Joe: Lions.
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Lucas: Texans. I'm not betting against the dude who's hosting the Scriptwriter (albeit unwillingly now maybe).
Joe: Rams.
Sunday Night
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (-1.5)
Lucas: Bills. In the "Can't Get Past the Chiefs" Bowl, I'll take the team that seems to have the upper hand in this rivalry.
Adam: Bills. Man, some good divisional games this week and ones that could be playoff or final week contenders. This is just a first week, home field play. Both teams will be good this year and just don’t have much to go on, so home team it is.
Joe: Bills.
Monday Night
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-0.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Yeah, sorry, I'm betting against His Holiness.
Adam: Bears. Interestingly, this is one of the lowest first week MNF over-under's in years (so I heard, sitting at 43.5 per ESPN Bet as of writing). I have seen some analysis suggesting J.J. is going to come out flying, something I tend to find does not happen for rookie QBs. And with Williams starting with Johnson, I can see a lower scoring game. But at home, with the hype and skill players, I like the Bears by 6.
Joe: Bears.
Records Last Year
Lucas: 139-133
Adam: 142-130
Joe: 138-134
Geoffrey: 151-121
Jim: 149-123
Matthew: 133-139
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