Thursday, November 16, 2023

2023 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 11

Well, the good news is my strategy kinda worked. The bad news is it didn't really help.

We move onto another week of picking NFL games against the spread, and nothing significant was gained. Adam and I split our six disputed games, but I took three of five from Joe; Adam took two of three from him.

You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here. If nothing else, I managed to double my hero win output for the season.

As we move into Week 11, Adam and I disagree on five games, Joe and I on seven, and Joe and Adam on six games out of 14. Let's get to it!

Thursday Night

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Baltimore makes no sense. They're world beaters against the elite, then proceed to lose to the Browns at home. Getting points here makes this pick a little bit easier for me.
Adam: Bengals. This looks to be a rare decent Thursday night game. I like a close game that goes back and forth, but I like the Bengals to pull it out. For fantasy purposes I'm hoping Mixon get a little more usage; not that he has been unused, I just don’t recall any blowout games from him yet.
Joe: Ravens.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
Lucas: Steelers.

Adam: Browns. Could pull a mulligan on this if Watson is not able to go, but assume he suits up, which he is currently trending to do so, I like the Browns at home. Welp that escalated quickly, apparently he goes from “likely to play” to having season ending surgery in the 24 hours since I initially wrote this. But I’ll stick with my pick.
Joe: Browns.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-9.5)
Lucas: Lions. Even with Fields coming back, I don't see this being close.
Adam: Lions. This line does not give me the warm fuzzies. I wonder when the last time the Lions were this much of a favorite against the Bears? It’s been a while, I'm sure, but the Lions are legit, and I will defer the extra few points to them for the home game.
Joe: Lions.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Green Bay Packers (+2,5)
Lucas: Chargers. Ah yes, the every eight years tradition of the Packers wearing their throwbacks against the Bolts. Last time the Chargers, who were still in San Diego, covered, I'll take that, combined with the fact that Austin Ekeler is gonna go bonkers because Green Bay can't play run defense. Can we fire Joe Barry yet?
Adam: Packers. Bucking the pick percentage and going with my gut. Love is hit or miss, and the Chargers are, well, the Chargers. Both teams have played well and both have played piss poor. I see a bounce here by the Chargers coming off the tough game vs the Lions. Green Bay covers at very least and likely wins.
Joe: Chargers.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-11.5)
Lucas: Raiders. I just... yes, Miami can beat the truly crappy teams, and if I were picking straight up I'd probably take the Dolphins, but by this many? I'll take the points, thanks.
Adam: Dolphins. At home and coming off the bye, easy.
Joe: Raiders.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-10.5)
Lucas: Giants. Sam Howell as a double digit favorite? I don't care if it's against the Sentient Derp, no thanks.
Adam: Commanders. Have to give a shout out to my alma mater's recent grad and third backup, now starting quarterback for the G-Men Danny Tommy DeVito. But alas, there is a reason you are an undrafted free agent 3rd sting: you came of power hour (read with oozing sarcasm) University of Illinois.
Joe: Commanders.

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers (+10.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Okay, now this one makes sense. I look forward to the updated meme.
Adam: Cowboys. How is this fair? They are 16.5 point favorites vs New York and now only 10.5 against a lesser Panthers squad. This game is over by half unless Dak finds a way to mess it up. He is due, its been a few weeks.
Joe: Cowboys.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
Lucas: Titans. I have way more faith in Will Levis than I probably should. God help me.
Adam: Jaguars. This looks ripe for a bounceback game for the Jags. After a really ugly loss last week, they find a softer spot here against Tennessee at home. Playing the line a little like I did last week, I think the right line is 7, so playing that a late touchdown can win it.
Joe: Jaguars.

Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans (-5.5)
Lucas: Texans. I can only pick one Cardinal team this weekend, and I'm gonna pick the pissed off one.


Adam: Texans. Cannot believe I am going to say this considering this is a game in the early season I would have quickly dismissed as a tank bowl, but this should be an entertaining one. Plus, whoever decided to record the sky tracker cam, he best be getting a raise. I want that all the time.
Joe: Texans.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)
Lucas: Buccanneers. Yes, the Niners looked phenomenal as I screwed my last minute change last week. Part of me wonders if this is an overreaction to that. I'm not willing to stick with them until I know they're fully back, give me the points.
Adam: Buccaneers. Total gut play. McCaffery failed to find the endzone for the first time in 17 games. Purdy played well, but Tampa has been feisty this year. They probably don’t win, but I like the cover, even if it is a backdoor.
Joe: Buccaneers.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Lucas: Jets. ..the hell is wrong with Josh Allen? This game is gonna be a dumpster fire.
Adam: Jets. *Breaking news* No look pass himself A A Ron reported to be eyeing December return. Crazy if true. Just needs MILF Hunter 4000 to keep them in contention.
Joe: Bills.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. This is one they should take care of business in, I would think.
Adam: Seahawks. Meh.
Lucas note: Agreed.
Joe: Seahawks.

Sunday Night

Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Can't lose in primetime if you've got Josh Freaking Dobbs.
Adam: Vikings. We are about due for a Russell flop game again. Plus Minnesota has been through some heavy adversity and seems to be coming out on top.
Joe: Broncos.

Monday Night

Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. In the Super Bowl rematch I'll take the winner. I bet we see all of the points in this game.
Adam: Chiefs. Purely a home team gets the edge play. These are two evenly matched teams that I could see both hangin’ half a hundred on the board. So this may come to do who has the ball last...
Joe: Eagles.

Records So Far
Lucas: 66-86 (6-8 last week)
Adam: 84-66 (6-8 last week)
Joe: 71-79 (5-9 last week)
Geoffrey: 83-67 (8-6 last week)
Jim: 76-74 (7-7 last week) 

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