I had my worst week since Week 4 earlier this year, and as a result, I am no longer leading the coalition as a whole. Somehow I do still lead in the column despite Joe taking six of seven from me while Adam took five of seven; Joe won three of four disputed with Adam. I still have a few games up on them, but Jim has vaulted into the lead after hanging close for a number of weeks.
You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here; I lost a couple of hero games this past week, which explains part of my struggles. Adam has been updating a sheet with home/road favorite/dog splits, as well as splits based on time (which... mine won't look pretty for the late/primetime slots after this week).
So as I attempt to reclaim my long-held lead, Adam and I disagree on three games, Joe and I on four, and Joe and Adam on seven out of 13. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams (+5.5)
Lucas: Raiders. For the first time in about two decades, the defending champ will have a losing record the following year. [expletive] them picks, indeed, Rams. Hope the title was worth it. At least you have Baker Mayfield now though?
Adam: Raiders. With all things pointing toward Stafford having played his last down (for at least this year), the Rams pick up the heavy artillery off waivers after the Panthers released Baker. Yeah, this is an L for the Rams.
Joe: Raiders.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
Lucas: Jets. For a combination of reasons; a high line, some faith in Mike Effing White, and with the evening out of the last couple weeks with The Coin, which called for a Jets win this week.
Adam: Jets. Just playing the line here. I don’t like 9.5 with the way the Jets have been playing. Even with it in Buffalo, I think this is an important AFC East battle. Jets lose but come to play. The Coin's pick of the Jets doesn't matter for my pick, by the way.
Lucas note: Adam asked about The Coin, I just reworded what he wrote to make it fit better.
Joe: Bills.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
Lucas: Bengals. My sub note on Adam's pick about the rust on Deshaun Watson was spot on. Unfortunately for me, the other phases of the game more than made up for it. The Browns though aren't gonna get away with that this week.
Adam: Bengals. Cleveland’s D scored 3 touchdowns last week; felped me take a W in one of my leagues for sure. But Kevin is in full defense mode against the Wet Bandit. Cincy rolls.
Joe: Bengals.
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys (-17.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I'm a little nervous taking this line, but with the way the Cowboys have been able to blow out teams they should, I see more of the same this week, especially against the most splendid of tanks. Just as long as the only team from Texas flipping a switch this weekend is the one from Dallas and not the one from Belton...
After a record-high online viewing audience of 25,566 in its quarterfinal victory, @football_ncc will HOST its first national semifinal Saturday!
— NCC Cardinals (@NCC_Athletics) December 4, 2022
The game at B-W Stadium will be broadcast live on ESPN+.#WeAreNC @NCAADIII #d3fb pic.twitter.com/kma8AtCPKN
Adam: Cowboys. This is just unfair. In Dallas. I cannot believe I am taking this, but Dallas hangs another half century this week.
Joe: Cowboys.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (-0.5)
Lucas: Lions. Yes, the Vikings are 10-2, but nine of those wins have come by one score. Their expected record at this point based on point differential is 6.3-5.7. Looking at a bunch of their rankings through 12 games, this isn't an elite football team by any stretch; they are just incredibly lucky. So I'll call for regression to the mean and say the Lions make a late push for a playoff spot.
Adam: Lions. Goff-St. Brown is a stud combo this year. I like that continuing and will prefer the home team here.
Joe: Vikings.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Given the Titans firing their GM, even with a banged up Sunshine, I'll take the points.
Adam: Jaguars. Sunshine.
Joe: Titans.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (+7.5)
Lucas: Giants. Kind of a lot of points to lay for a division game on the road. Taking the points.
Adam: Giants. Divisional game, in New York, with Philly coming off a blowout win... I like the cover here.
Joe: Eagles.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Get well soon, Lamar.
Adam: Ravens. Baltimore is not having the best of seasons and with Jackson out it could be bad. But I think they rally the troops and eke out a cover, but not necessarily a win.
Joe: Steelers.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (+8.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. I can't decide who last week's Broncos-Ravens game says more about. Probably the Broncos, given that they couldn't put away a Ravens squad that was down Lamar. Mahomes is gonna have a field day, and this Denver offense won't be able to keep up.
Adam: Chiefs. Watch this be the game that Russ decides he wants to cook... but assuming that doesn’t happen (look at his body of work so far this year) then this will become a bloodbath quickly.
Joe: Chiefs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Don't have to worry about not counting out Touchdown Tom if you can close out a game like I figure the Niners will be able to do...
Adam: 49ers. Weird to say this but eww. Tampa has been trash except for the 4th quarter, and San Francisco has lost its second quarterback this year. This is going to be a messy game and I will defer to the home team in this case as I did in a pick or two before.
Lucas note: Been a bit since I brought this up, but you know who the Niners should never have cut?
Joe: 49ers.
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Not much to say here, Seahawks should roll.
Adam: Seahawks. I know Lucas always talks about west coast teams traveling to the east, but what about east coast teams traveling west? I’ll assume the concerns are similar, so by extrapolation Carolina will suck... or maybe it’s their team, but I’ll go with the travel west.
Lucas note: The thing about west coast teams going east is the early start time (10am in their biological clocks), so eastern teams going west would be playing at their normal time slot. I'd have to look at numbers, but I really don't think this is a phenomenon at all.
Joe: Seahawks.
Sunday Night
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers (+2.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. I guess the powers that be want to have the Chargers blow a game on national TV this week?
Adam: Chargers. For my fantasy football teams' sake I hope this is a full-blown aerial assault by both teams and we see loads of scores. This game may just come down to a last second field goal. I seem like a broken record, but I will preference the home team again.
Joe: Dolphins.
Monday Night
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals (+1.5)
Lucas: Patriots. This game sucks. I'm out.
Adam: Cardinals. Now with their bye week, Kyler has gotten all of his COD needs out of his system. Arizona by plenty.
Joe: Patriots.
Records So Far
Lucas: 94-101 (5-10 last week)
Adam: 88-107 (8-7 last week)
Joe: 89-106 (10-5 last week)
Geoffrey: 87-108 (8-7 last week)
Jim: 96-99 (10-5 last week)
Tom: 89-106 (7-8 last week)
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