I didn't have a similar past surge during the Thanksgiving week, but I held my own enough to remain in first place in the group overall, still holding my three game advantage on that front. In column, I did lose some ground though as while I split my four disputed games with Joe, Adam took four of six from both me and Joe to leapfrog him and get his deficit with me down to single digits.
You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here; I had a rough 0-2 week on hero picks, but the group on the whole is 38-26 in those games now and our consensus pick rate is starting to approach 50 percent, though we still have a lot of ground to make up on that front. Adam is continuing to chart how we've done picking based home/road favorites/underdogs, as well as how we've done by day and timeslot.
As we move back into bye season, Adam and I disagree on seven games, Joe and I on seven, and Joe and Adam on four out of 15. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (+5.5)
Lucas: Bills. I think they have a good follow up this week to the dramatic win on Thanksgiving.
Adam: Bills. I like this line, and generally, I like this game. Should be a fun TNF to watch. I find that’s how things work for TNF: The first game includes the prior year’s champ, then Weeks 2-12 are meh at best games; then from 13-17 the games are decent to good.
Joe: Bills.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Hoping the High End TalentTM doesn't come into play here.
Adam: Steelers. Just giving the team with the better offensive playmakers (IMO) the benefit.
Lucas note: I guess Adam is banking on High End TalentTM.
Joe: Steelers.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+2.5)
Lucas: Packers. I might as well enjoy this while I still can.
Adam: Packers. Who know what Green Bay team we will get and who knows what Bears we will get. Just playing the odds of the past decade. On a side note, I love Sad Rodgers.
Joe:: Packers.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions (-1.5)
Lucas: Lions. I could go either way here, honestly, but I'm thinking a bit of a letdown game after the dramatic comeback Sunshine led this past week. Also, we don't have the power of mascot speedos this week.
Adam: Jaguars. Two things. First, who would have thought 2-3 years ago that I would be looking at this game as one I would be excited to watch? And two, The Fanboys in Dallas were playing highlights of touchdowns (they call it Touchdown Tuesday and get some fantastic TD calls from home radio from the weekend) from the Jags game, and noted that Sunshine looked like the quarterback we all expected (I agreed) and then made quite possibly the best comment. They said Sunshine’s NFL balls had dropped!?!?!? Crude, but accurate.
Lucas note: I don't disagree... on either account.
Joe: Lions.
New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Yes, the power of Mike Effing White overpowered the power of The Coin, but I think last year's coin with the Raiders flip flopped a couple results. Naturally, that probably means this game is the flop to get the record back to even.
Adam: Vikings. Many are hailing the game last week as evidence that the Jets are for real... yeah, ok. Now that we cannot trust The Coin any more... in any case Minnesota is a better team IMO.
Joe: Vikings.
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants (+1.5)
Lucas: Commanders. Even though this is a poverty franchise that can't even honor the late Sean Taylor right.
Adam: Giants. How are the Giants dogs against Washington? I mean, the franchise cannot seem to do anything right. They have had scandal after scandal after scandal. G-Men by not one but two touchdowns.
Joe: Giants.
Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Not as worried about a backdoor cover with this one.
Adam: Titans. This looks like a trap game for Philly and the line; 5.5 is just about where I might flip. I think this game comes down to which RB – Henry or Hurts for clarity – runs better. I like the Euphoric Violet Gazelle as Lucas calls him.
Joe: Titans.
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-8.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I'm hesitant to lay this many on a Ravens team that can't put people away, but then again, when they're playing these guys...
Adam: Ravens. How much longer before we can officially call Wilson trash? Never mind, we already reached it. I also see a comeback game for Baltimore after losing to the Jags last week on a last minute two point conversion.
Joe: Ravens.
Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans (+7.5)
Lucas: Texans. Mainly a spite pick against Cleveland for employing a sexual predator. And maybe also for anyone in the Cleveland area who thinks Mount Union got hosed by having to travel to Delaware Valley for the D3 quarterfinals. Y'all have no right to complain after last year.
Adam: Browns. It’s over. Cleveland weathered the storm of starting Brissett for 11 games and came out with a 4-7 record (not as good as I am sure they wanted), but were in several games. Now we get to see how they play the rest of the year. Off-field issues aside, Watson is a massive upgrade and could see the Browns go... dare I say 5-1 or even 6-0 the rest of the way?
Lucas note: Assuming there isn't a ton of rust on Watson, given he hasn't played in almost two years.
Joe: Browns.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (+4.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Not much to say about this game, though the lack of Aaron Donald for this game makes me all the more confident.
Adam: Seattle. McVay got clocked by one of his defensive players as they ran onto the field, quite funny to see. Lost his headset. But the best part, the player didn’t even so much as turnaround, just kept running without looking back. That pretty much sums up how the season has been going for the Rams.
Joe: Rams.
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. I'll be interested to see if the Niners can contain Tua and company.
Adam: Dolphins. Heard that every game that Tua has started AND finished, they have won. I expect that to happen here and Miami takes the W Plus I saw a report that Run CMC may be having- don’t act surprised- knee soreness. That man is always hurt.
Lucas note: Ironic for someone who skipped the bowl game his final college season to avoid injury.
Joe: Dolphins.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Should be an outstanding one; I think the Chiefs just barely cover.
Adam: Bengals. You know what happens after you have a baby? You don’t get sleep. I think we see a tired Mahomie after the birth of his son. OK, in reality probably not, they just pay someone to do that, but I still like Cinncy assuming they actually get Chase and Mixon back. Chase being a late scratch caused me to have to make a last minute sub and lost my FFL game in one of my money leagues.
Joe: Chiefs.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5)
Lucas: Chargers. I still don't think the Raiders are good.
Adam: Chargers. In the same FFL league I noted above, I had a chance but pulled a last second change as well to pull Herbert, so lost out on about 10 points there. Oh and the guy I was playing only had me by 2 or 3 points until his running back, one Josh Jacobs, booked it for 86 and a touchdown in OT. Therefore I cannot support Vegas this week.
Lucas note: Fair.
Joe: Chargers.
Sunday Night
Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
Lucas: Colts. I can't believe I'm going here after... whatever the hell Jeff Saturday was thinking with his clock management on that final drive. So dumb.
Adam: Cowboys. Saturday, Saturday, Saturday... How do you not call timeouts last week? This could be a fast game as both coaches don’t know the first thing about clock management.
Joe: Cowboys.
Monday Night
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. I know, the Saints own the Bucs in the regular season since Brady came to town, but I don't trust this Saints team anymore.
Adam: Buccaneers. TDT to throw the TD's in TB. And don’t tell me you don't fully understand that sentence.
Lucas note: Took me a second, but...
Records So Far
Lucas: 89-91 (8-8 last week)
Adam: 80-100 (10-6 last week)
Joe: 79-101 (8-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 79-101 (6-10 last week)
Jim: 86-94 (8-8 last week)
Tom: 82-98 (9-7 last week)
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