I hope you enjoyed last week's special podcast edition. Adam and I both enjoyed it, and I think it's safe to say we'll plan to bring that format back for future editions. Stay tuned for more details on that.
As for where we stand now, I was correct in that we came pretty close to a split, as I took five of our eight disputed games last week. It should be noted, however, that that margin I won by should probably have an asterisk. Also, Adam was insistent I include the following:
For the record, if you win by 2 or less games, remember the Denver no QB game and the RGIII/Dez Ravens/Pitt game that was played on a Wednesday day. In both cases I absolutely would have picked the other way if I had the information I had at the time we made picks.
I had a feeling that, if we weren't bound by the system we work under, Adam would have gone the other way and we'd have split last week instead (even though he came reasonably close to getting away with it on Wednesday). He still retains the group lead for now, but it's now by the narrowest of margins (bearing in mind that he and I each have one more point there than we should). Correct standings and our picks in relation to each other can be found here.
Following a chaotic week where all 32 teams still played, just all over the place, Adam and I disagree on only five games out of the 15 games spaced pretty far apart. Let's get to it!
Sunday, Early Afternoon
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)
Lucas: Saints. I don't totally trust Taysom Hill, but Jameis is waiting in the wings if need be. I'll lay the field goal.
Adam: Falcons. As a Kamara fantasy owner, I am pissed at Taysom Hill. He is sucking meaningful carries and yards away from him. With Brees out still I see no change in that. Matty Ice to the rescue.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Lucas: Lions. It was a matter of time: the Bears defense finally got tired of carrying the team, and verily Sunday Night Massacre II: Electric Boogaloo came to pass. Not that the Lions are really any better. Here's some Gridiron Heights.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins (-11.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Miami should win this game going away, but I'm not sure I feel comfortable laying this many with the possibility of either a Tua who needs to keep adjusting to the league that's adjusted to him, or Fitzception.
Adam: Bengals. I know the Fins have a solid defense, and I know the Magic is... well... Magic, but 11.5 is too much for me to lay on an "eh" Fins team against a slightly underrated, though now Burrow-less, Bengals squad.
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
Lucas: Titans. This is definitely the part of the cycle where Mayfield struggles, though more likely, the Euphoric Violet Gazelle continues to destroy everyone in his path.
Adam: Titans. A solid line here; it could go either way and may be dependent on the Mayfield we get and the weather. I’ll just give the edge to the home team.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+3.5)
Lucas: Colts. Bounceback game for a defense that just got rocked.
Adam: Texans. Here is a team that has not seemed to catch any breaks early on, exit stage left to coach O’Brien, and now we are starting to see what we all expected out of the Texans. I predict a close game that is back and forth. Colts win, but Texans cover.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets (+8.5)
Lucas: Raiders. If there was a week where the Raiders failed to show up... it was supposed to be this one, not last week. Oh well, I think we all missed that one.
Adam: Jets. Get spanked by the Falcons and now, UPSET ALERT: Jets beat the Raiders straight up. OK, to be fair, Jacobs was knocked out of the game last week and caused Carr to be grossly ineffective. With Jacobs likely out this week, or on an unofficial snap count, I see more of the same. I’m just wondering if the ghosts will stay put for Darnold.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings (-9.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Yeah, the Jags aren't good, but their defense isn't awful. They should not be double digit dogs. Taking the points.
Adam: Jaguars. I swear, the Jags are dogs every week and always seem to cover. *Checks past 12 weeks* OK, so I am way off; they are 5-6 against the spread. Ehhh, I still roll with it.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
Lucas: Rams. Sean McVay is 6-0 in his head coaching career against the Cardinals. Eventually they should break through, but will they this week?
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. If Daniel Jones were playing, I'd probably take the points. But Colt McCoy? Not that confident. Sorry, Joe.
Adam: Seahawks. G-Men going without Jones this week, or so it looks, I don’t see McCoy doing much of anything.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers (-8.5)
Lucas: Packers. Pouring one out for my virtual Madden '11 self that I created about a decade ago in real time, who in my Franchise mode just retired after 15 seasons. Happy trails, me.
Lucas note: Yeah, he only got two snaps. Carson Wentz got 70.
New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
Lucas: Patriots. I can't believe the Chargers are favored in this game. The Pats are looking determined to play spoiler as of late, and the Chargers are the Chargers.
Adam: Chargers. This line just looked off to me. I may be missing something, but 1.5 seems way too low of a line. I would have put it closer to five, so I am going to use reverse psychology on myself and pick the opposite of what I expect.
Sunday Night
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Two touchdowns is a lot to lay, especially in a division game, but the Chiefs romped these guys at Mile High, and who knows what Denver's quarterback situation will be by Sunday night. Chiefs by a billion.
Adam: Chiefs. Will the Broncos have any QBs this week? Whatever, won’t matter. Mahomie and Hill will continue their way. Oh, and I must say as awesome as Hill is as a receiver, he posted over 50 pionts in my fantasy league to hand me the loss when I was like a 75% favorite to win going into the late games. Ridiculous.
Monday, Late Afternoon
Washington Football Team @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5)
Lucas: Washington. On the one hand, I get Eric Ebron's gripe with the league dragging out their game against the Ravens all the way to Wednesday afternoon. But on the other, they were a shell of themselves and should have been clobbered. But this is the Steelers this year: 11-0, yes, but not a convincing team. Taking the points, especially on a fairly short week for Pittsburgh.
Adam: Steelers Washington. Huuuuuuuuuughhh. OK, I am switching. I originally picked Pitt, but the Team has played well. Plus I would love to see Pittsburgh taken down a notch or two.
Monday Night
Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers (+2.5)
Lucas: Bills. The Niners are starting to get healthier, but not enough yet. Their struggles continue.
Adam: Bills. Welcome to the NFL for a few weeks you Arizona 49ers... or would Phoenix 49ers sound better? At the end of the day, it don’t matta, Bills in a rout.
Lucas note:
The San Francisco 49ers will now play a 90 minute flight to the southeast of San Francisco instead of a 90 minute drive to the southeast of San Francisco. https://t.co/OLTWb06Llp
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) November 30, 2020
Tuesday Night
Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. The NFL really screwed the Ravens over. I think it carries over a little bit into this next game. Ravens still win, but it's closer than it should be.
Adam: Cowboys. The Heiferladies last played on thanksgiving, now playing on Tuesday due to the Ravens playing last on Wednesday. So basically, the Heiferladies have had an extra bye and plenty of time to heal and game plan. Plus Lamar may still not be cleared to play.
Records So Far
Lucas: 89-88 (9-7 last week)
Adam: 90-87 (7-9 last week)
Joe: 78-99 (6-10 last week)
Geoffrey: 88-89 (9-7 last week)
Jim: 83-94 (6-10 last week)
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