Thursday, September 21, 2017

2017 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 3

The good news is I had a better Week 2 showing than I did in Week 1. The bad news is, other than Adam, so did everyone else.

Adam still had a strong performance last week though, as I blew a 3-1 lead in disputed picks and Adam finished taking four of the seven. Go ahead, make your memes. But don't the fact that I blew a 3-1 lead distract you from the fact that the Cleveland Indians blew a 3-1 lead in the 2016 World Series. So there.

This week as I try to continue my annual tradition of digging early holes before climbing out of them, Adam and I disagree on only five games out of 16. You can view the ESPN standings here, though entry error has Adam two wins under his actual total on there. I've also got them on a spreadsheet here, broken down based on how we picked in relation to each other.

Thursday Night

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) 
Lucas: Rams. These would look better in the old school blue. I hate the Color Rush.
Adam: Rams. What a dumpster fire to start out this week... pass.

Sunday Morning

Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I definitely think Baltimore is legit, but beating the Bengals and Browns a combined 44-10 doesn't convince me that you're all of the sudden world beaters. Blow out the Jaguars as I think will happen, you'll build your case, but you've got two toughies right after that. Win at least one of those and we'll talk. Win both, and you've got my confidence.
Adam: Ravens. Such a sneaky offense they have there in Baltimore. The always forgotten Ravens... nevermore.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions (+2.5)
Lucas. Falcons. Excuse me for a moment, I'm going to go flip a table again.
Adam: Lions. Going to take the points and the home team here. Not sure the Lions win, but they cover at least.

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (+3.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Trevor Siemian is pretty good, and Broncos Brandon Marshall may be in the running for my favorite non-Packer in the NFL.
Adam: Broncos. Denver's D will be the deciding factor in this game. Shady gets no running room and Taylor spends more time on his butt (haha I said butt), than in the pocket throwing.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears (+7.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Well, hopefully this year's matchup is more entertaining than this one from 20 years ago.
Adam: Steelers. SMH.

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts (+0.5)
Lucas: Browns. I never thought I'd see the day where Cleveland would be favored in a game. Then again when you're going up against Jacoby Brissett with no supporting cast...
Adam: Browns. This is a pick ’em game and I just picked the Browns. Yes, the Browns will have a win before my B&@#$.
Lucas note: I love that "Bears" is an obscenity for Adam again.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+6.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. I really hope someone on the Dolphins goes "Hold my beer," and tries to top Marshawn Lynch, because pissing off the Jets' defense brings me joy.
Adam: Dolphins. I know it is on the road and they are basically a touchdown favorite, but come on. It’s the Jets... THE JETS!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Stupid last minute injuries screwing up a pick (and I refuse to dishonor COAS by changing the pick last minute). But even if Case Keenum has to back up Sam Bradford again, Minnesota's defense and Dalvin Cook are too good for Tampa to walk all over them like they did the Bears.
Adam: Vikings. Tough game, but I think Minnesota at home can take this down.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-13.5)
Lucas: Patriots.
Adam: Texans. All I have to say is JJ Watt gets up in Brady’s business more than a few times this week. For that reason alone I think the game stays close.
Lucas note: ...have you learned NOTHING?! :P

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
Lucas: Panthers. I have both Drew Brees and Cam Newton as my fantasy quarterbacks. Tough call when they're going against each other; Brees is going to throw a lot because he's behind, but he'll behind because Cam Newton is going to go berserk on this dumpster fire of a defense. Chicken or egg?
Adam: Saints. How are the Panthers a TD favorite? They just lost Olsen to a season ending broken foot and let’s be honest Super Cam is not so super anymore. Brees and O wake up in a big way this week.
Lucas note: You know they can bring him back in eight weeks, right? Also, have you seen the Saints defense?

 New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Sure, Eli is a veteran quarterback who should know how to manage the play clock. But Bob McAdoo has much bigger problems in the lack of a run game, a meh defense, and a head case wide receiver who may or may not have forgotten how to catch.
Adam: Eagles. Don’t make me talk about the Giants right now. Laying the points.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Lucas: Titans. Okay, it's time to break this out again.
Adam: Seahawks. Here is another great example of a game where the D will keep a game in check enough that the line may actually be much closer than it needs to be... but I still like the Seahawks to win outright. Talking the points and the upset.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5)
Lucas: Packers. The line gave me pause, but I'm not going to overreact to a loss where three key players got hurt (but all weren't long term), there were some dubious calls that may or may not make up for Week 1, and the Packers are back at home against an awful team with this stat on the line.
Lucas note: Football is weird.
Adam: Bengals. I’ll take Cincy, but I don’t like it. Nelson may be out for a week or two and it just seemed like Green Bay could not get anything going. But I guess Cincy has not had a great start to the year either... still, 9.5 points is a tough pill to swallow.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) 
Lucas: Chiefs. Sorry, Chargers, this one's not coming down to a field goal at the end.
Adam: Chiefs. Should be a pretty good late afternoon game. Something about this year and this team... Alex Smith looks like the QB he was always ‘supposed’ to be.

Sunday Night

Oakland Raiders @ Washington Redskins (+3.5) 
Lucas: Raiders. They're not going to put up 40-plus again, but Washington is meh and you'd have to raise this line by a fair amount before I start thinking about taking the points.
Adam: Raiders. Not much to say here, Oakland has been fine and Washington has disappointed so far this year.

Monday Night

Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. You really think Zeke is going to run for only eight yards again this week? He'll top that by his second carry. Better than I could do; it'd probably take me like 10 to pick up eight yards. Darn me and my like, seven second 40 time!
Adam: Cowboys. Surprised that this line is only 3.5. Zeke should recover fine from his eight yard outburst last week and Arizona will be sorely missing DJ every week.

Records So Far
Lucas: 14-17 (8-8 last week)
Adam: 19-12 (9-7 last week)
Scott: 16-15 (9-7 last week)
Geoffrey: 17-14 (9-7 last week)
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