2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 2

One full week of college football is in the books. We had a few upsets to speak of, with four FCS teams getting paid to win, including Howard with the biggest Vegas upset in history. Those losses, along with every other result in college football, will be taken into account as we go along this season, but after one week it's too early to start looking at Playoff Points. That will come on Monday when we have two weeks of data to go through.

My focus on Tuesdays remains a look at non-conference slates across college football. These games mean something to some degree, mainly just my looking to see how tough teams are scheduling themselves outside of their conferences.

If my math is right, I counted 46 games against FCS competition in Week 1. It's a fair number, and as much as I decry these games, I understand why they're played. I just don't count them as positives when it comes to the Death to the BCS Playoffs, and I penalize teams in NCSS rankings. Playing multiple FCS teams though results in a one year postseason ban, and I haven't looked at schedules to see if this will end up happening yet.

The Houston-UTSA game was postponed last week for understandable reasons, so I've adjusted their respective NCSS scores from Week 1, and if and when they do reschedule their game, I'll make sure those changes get reflected. Not having looked at either team's schedule, I don't know if an FCS game is already on either slate, but if they add a second one to fill the schedule, they will be given an exception from the postseason ban.

Anyway, if you need a refresher on how these rankings work, you can view the summary back in my season preview post. This week's rankings and all to follow will include the conference's average NCSS score for the week, in total for the season, and where they ranked the week before. Let's get to it!

1. Big Ten (1.71, 2.93; LW: 3). The Big Ten continues its strong non-conference slate while they still can with only Maryland hosting an FCS opponent. Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Northwestern are off to play other Power Five teams at their place while Penn State hosts Pittsburgh and Ohio State hosts Oklahoma. The rest of the conference hosts Group of Five teams this week.
2. MAC (1.00, 2.67; LW: 1). Akron, Bowling Green, Kent State (beware Howard!), Miami (Ohio), and Northern Illinois all host FCS opponents this week, and that helped knock the MAC off their perch at the top. This is despite road trips for Ohio, Central, Eastern, and Western Michigans to Power Five schools, and Buffalo and Toledo also playing ont he road. Ball State has the lone home game against an FBS opponent this week.
3. Conference USA (1.71, 2.43; LW: 6). The conference takes a dip from what would be 2.50 had UTSA played Houston this past week, but it doesn't really hurt it at all. Florida International and Southern Mississippi hosting FCS teams doesn't really hurt it either, thanks to Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, and UTSA all head off to Power Five campuses, Louisiana Tech gets a couple points for hosting Mississippi State, and Old Dominion, North Texas, and UAB are also on the road. Rice and UTEP also meet in the first conference game of the year in this league.
4. Sun Belt (1.00, 2.33; LW: 2). Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Troy are all playing FCS opponents this week, but points are still there to be had. Louisiana-Monroe and Texas State get three points apiece for road games against Power Five opponents, South Alabama gets two for hosting Oklahoma State, Arkansas State gets two for hosting Miami, and Louisiana and New Mexico State are on the road against other Group of Five teams. Georgia State and Coastal Carolina have byes this week.
5. Mountain West (1.33, 2.17; LW: 5). Air Force is off and Colorado State, Utah State, and Wyoming are all getting their cupcakes in. Elsewhere though it's a lot of road trips as Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State and San Jose State all play on the road at Power Five schools. UNLV is on the road at Idaho, and New Mexico and Nevada are at home against other Group of Five teams.
6. Big 12 (1.50, 1.50; LW: 10). The Big 12 finally gets on the board after an FCS-heavy week with no games against lower level competition. Not even Texas Tech's bye can bring them down. Oklahoma's trip to Ohio State and TCU visiting Arkansas really help their cause, while Iowa State hosting Iowa and Oklahoma State visiting South Alabama net them two points apiece. The other half of the conference is hosting Group of Five teams.
7. ACC (0.86, 1.50; LW: 8). This is a pretty good week, all things considered. Pittsburgh hits the road to play Penn State for three points, and a number of either home games against Power Five competition (Clemson, Duke, Virginia) and Miami's trip to Arkansas State each award them two points. There are a few customary home games against Group of Five opponents, and only Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech follow up their Week 1 neutral site games with FCS opponents. A pair of conference games are also on the table this week.
8. Pac 12 (0.75, 1.50; LW: 7). We have one conference matchup here between Stanford and USC, with California and Washington getting dessert. There's also a glut of home games this week, with Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and UCLA all hosting Group of Five teams. Utah is on the road at BYU, and Oregon and Oregon State welcome in Big Ten opposition.
9. SEC (0.21, 1.36; LW: 4). The SEC comes back down to earth this week as Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M all get their cupcakes this week. I'll save my moral outrage for Nick Saban Is A Coward Week, because that's when it's better justified, because there are some good games here. Arkansas hosts TCU, Georgia is off to Notre Dame, and Mississippi State visits Louisiana Tech for two points apiece, while Auburn gets three for visiting Clemson. We have one conference game in Missouri-South Carolina, and Alabama gets a point for hosting Fresno State.
10. American Athletic (0.83, 1.25; LW: 9). Cincinnati, East Carolina, and Houston are all traveling to face Power Five opponents for three points apiece. SMU and Tulsa are hosting fellow Group of Five opponents, while Temple is getting its FCS game in. We also have a few conference games here as well. I've also adjusted for the Houston postponement, which did drop their score (it would have been 1.33 had they played this past week), though it doesn't save them from last place after two weeks.

To see the updated spreadsheet, click here.

I touched on this last week as well, but I don't include the independent schools as their own conference, given their inherent advantage with non-conference games. If they were their own conference, they'd have an average NCSS of 2.50, which would be good for third overall through two weeks. You can see much of a pattern though in how the rankings go; the Group of Five teams tend to trickle towards the top, while the Power Five teams tend to be towards the bottom. Some of it is how the metric is built, but it's also related to fairly weak scheduling out of conference, the Big Ten this year notwithstanding, apparently.

With two weeks of data to work with after this weekend, on Monday I'll have a look at results and my first look at Playoff Points. Then on Tuesday I'll have my third set of NCSS rankings.