It's been a rough go for most of us looking at overall records, but we're all pretty much bunched together through four weeks. Adam's Week 4 strategy of picking mostly home teams, then saying screw it and changing the few road teams he picked to home teams and embracing the gimmick worked all right as he took six of nine disputed games from me, splitting his ten with Joe, while Joe swept his three disputed with me. The result is a three-way tie in the column, with all of us sitting two games off the group lead.
You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. The big trend continues to be how bad we are when we all agree, as we've gone 4-10 on consensus picks. Hero picks have come back down to earth a little bit (mostly because of Adam), but we're still a combined 15-7 on hero picks, which is really good. I'm still pending the home/road and time slot breakdowns.
This week as we get set for another 16 game slate, Adam and I disagree on six games, Joe and I on four, and Adam and Joe on six. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Lucas: Broncos. I feel like I could go either way here, so I'll opt for the home team.
Adam: Broncos. With Taylor hurt, even if he does play, I don’t see much success. Plus, Wilson eventually must have a good game. May be jinxing myself, but I am perfect on TNF picks...
Joe: Broncos. Even though Russell Wilson might not be 90% and Denver is being hush hush on if he starts. He will start, the loss of their star running back will take a toll, but Russ might cook on TNF.
Sunday Morning
New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Lucas: Giants. This is purely a points pick. Green Bay's offense has struggled a bit to start the year, and while I think they get the win in their first game across the pond, the G-Men should make it interesting.
Adam: Packers. Barkley has been good in all he has done this year, even playing a little quarterback last week. But with the G-Men’s QB situation shaky at best and trying to go into Lambeau to cover a touchdown, this is a tall order.
Lucas note: Uh...
Adam note: What, it's not at Lambeau? Crap. No matter, THE COMMENT STANDS!
Joe: Packers, They're not looking as good as they have been in the past, but manage ways to find wins this season. The Giants will be a tough opponent but the Pack will make it more difficult to pick up a win. I wonder how many eye rolls we will get from Rodgers this week because his wideouts keep dropping passes and missing routes?
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills (-14.5)
Lucas: Bills. Good follow up question to this: over/under 14.5 points scored by Buffalo's defense in fantasy? I'm selfishly taking the over, but I do think it's feasible.
Adam: Steelers. Only to celebrate what we already knew: the Biscuit is burnt... sorry, that was bad. So was Pickett’s debut, but I see improvement and with Buffalo’s injured secondary, I think Pitt covers. Loses for sure, but covers.
Joe: Bills. I don’t see Pickett being able to win against a Super Bowl-contending defense in his first start.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns (+3.5)
Lucas: Chargers. They did well in the early slot last week, and I'm not sure what to make of Cleveland yet.
Adam: Chargers. Gut pick here. I wouldn’t hate on anyone picking the other way. I just think Herbert showed he is going to be fine after the rib issue.
Joe: Chargers. I am hoping that Austin Ekeler can start cooking here against an average defense in Cleveland.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
Lucas: Vikings. I mean, when you can't beat a team that had to trot out Saquon Barkley for a couple snaps at quarterback...
Adam: Vikings. The Bears have shown me nothing. Was watching ESPN as I was drafting this and they had a trivia question: Which Bears QB is the only one to have a higher than 100 passer rating? Because Fields does not look like he is anywhere close to touching that and certainly not behind that O-line.
Adam note: Answer to that trivia question: Sid Luckman back in 1943.
Lucas note: That tracks per Pro Football Reference, if you add the caveat of starting quarterbacks. I mean, unless you want to put asterisks and include the likes of 1981 Mike Phipps and 2005 Shane Matthews. Although you could also add 1979 Walter Payton and his lone pass that went for a 54 yard touchdown.
Joe: Vikings. Even though the Vikings lost their main running back, I can see Jefferson being the star of the game. Justin Fields and the Bears still have work to do and I don’t expect much passing again.
Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots (-3.5)
Lucas: Lions. If only Detroit had a defense.
Adam: Lions. They have put up better than 24 points in each game and are averaging 35. It doesn’t help that they cannot stop anyone, giving up 35.25 on average. So they are literally 1-3 due to an average of .25 points, on average.
Joe: Lions. Detroit has scored the most points in the NFL and they are still 1-3? That will change here. Even if they go up against the Pats 2nd or 3rd string QB. Granted, they did play well in Green Bay last week, but that could have been a different game if Rodgers played like a baaaaad man.
Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
Lucas: Seahawks.
Adam: Saints. It was nice to see another team suffer the dreaded double doink. But NoLo bounces back after a trip across the pond.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+3.5)
Lucas: Jets. You know what? Contract the Dolphins. Blacklist everyone involved in the organization (except the players, obviously) and give the proceeds of the liquidation of the franchise to Tua and every other NFL player current and former who's been effed up by concussions.
Adam: Jets. This news just in, the MILF Hunter spotted at beach resort with Giselle. – Giggity Giggitty Goo.
Joe: Dolphins. I know Tua is out, but I think this Miami team can win against the Jets this week and by more than 3 points.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Unless the whole divorce lawyer thing isn't just tabloid BS and it screws with Brady's head. Okay, allow me one more Brady meme this week.
Adam: Buccaneers. I swore off Tommy Boy after last week and the loss to KC, but Atlanta has lost their primary weapon in Cordarelle Patterson. I don’t love laying 7.5 here, but I’ll roll the dice.
Joe: Buccaneers. Tom is going to be playing mad now that divorce attorneys are in the picture. I am sure he will initiate the Falcons at home. Let’s hope he can get that QBR up higher than Mr. Smith in Seattle.
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders (+2.5)
Lucas: Titans. I still think Carson Wentz is gonna die this year.
Adam: Titans. How... how... how is this only a 2.5 line? I said last week when lines don’t make sense take the team that is favored (or something to that effect). I cannot pass only laying 2.5 to Broken Wentz.
Joe: Titans. Washington is horrible and I just hope the plumbing has been fixed at FedEx field. It would not be good if the Commanders fans were pooped on twice in this game.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. I can't believe Jacksonville is a touchdown favorite over somebody. Semi-related note, happy trails to the $48 Million Man in Blake Bortles hanging it up.
Adam: Texans. I don’t like this line, but Houston has played tough in all of their games. Sunshine is much improved (other than having four fumbles and losing them all) but I don’t like laying more than a touchdown.
Joe: Jaguars.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers (+4.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Is San Francisco back to legit? I think they could be.
Adam: 49ers. Saw a meme the other day where someone pulled out the old Cleveland Mayfield cycle and fixed it to Carolina. It was priceless.
Joe: 49ers. They played great on Monday night against the defending Super Bowl champions. Granted, this year's Rams are not looking like they did last year. But if the 49ers play the same way they did on Monday, it'll be an easy win in Carolina.
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I'm just waiting for that other shoe to drop in Dallas.
Adam: Rams. Could go either way here; I just envision the “QB controversy” that Jerra manufactured comes to an end. Rush has been a good bus driver to this point, but the Rams D will come to play. Aaron Donald will go wild and the secondary will shut down Lamb, but only after they are done taking out the fans field crasher.
THE TRADITION IS BACK! Idiot On The Field, as called by Kevin Harlan: pic.twitter.com/5oRvHo0qTJ
— Timothy Burke (@bubbaprog) October 4, 2022
Lucas note: Adam asked for a picture. I went above and beyond because Kevin Harlan is a national treasure.
Joe: Cowboys. I think the Cowboys keep it close; two good defenses going at it. I think the Rams are a wounded dog from this past Monday. Look out for that, and I believe the Rams will win. But the Cowboys get the points.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals (+5.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Finally, I get a game where it makes sense to stop picking the Cardinals and have them screw me over even though they came through for me last week.
Adam: Eagles. Philly is the last undefeated team in the NFL, and Hurts has been putting a hurt on the teams he has faced. I see more of the same here. I wouldn’t put a back-door cover by Arizona off the table, but I like my chances.
Joe: Eagles. Two former OU Sooners will be looking for their first win in three weeks for OU fans. Yes, that is right. Texas vs OU will be played on Saturday in Dallas. And yes, OU will lose three games in a row this season after losing to Kanas State and TCU. Hurts has shown improvement and the Eagles take the points from Murray.
Sunday Night
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Because I could see something like this happening again.
Adam: Ravens They may be 2-2, but they are on pace for 60 offensive touchdowns, averaging 3.5 per game. With their 2 losses being by a total of seven (4 and 3) points. But winning by an average margin of 13 (15 and 11). I think the Ravens win, but even in a loss it trends to a 50/50 chance.
Joe: Ravens. This was a tough pick because of the line being a 50-50 split on who has the edge. But I like taking the home teams when these are split like this.
Monday Night
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
Lucas: Raiders. I'll take the points on Monday night even though I think the Chiefs win. Vegas can probably make it interesting.
Adam: Raiders. I hate this pick, I just hate it. But something has to give in Las Vegas. They are too talented of a team to be 1-3. It's Monday night, so teams often show up big for these games. Oh, and Britt is starting to become annoying again... but at least we haven’t hear from Mahomies brother yet. Sorry if I jinxed it... I’ll take the heat for that.
Joe: Chiefs. The Raiders still have not found their groove yet, and going up against a rival and possible AFC Champion of 2022. Patrick takes this win. Why? Because he has taken the title away from Rodgers. Mahomes is a baaaaaaaaaad MAN.
Records So Far
Lucas: 26-38 (5-11 last week)
Adam: 26-38 (8-8 last week)
Joe: 26-38 (8-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 24-40 (9-7 last week)
Jim: 25-39 (9-7 last week)
Tom: 28-36 (7-9 last week)
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