I didn't have an awful week in the grand scheme of things, but the gap between me and everyone else has shrunk while the gap between Adam and I has only grown. For the second straight week, he swept our disputed games and I now find myself a season high nine back of the lead. That Thanksgiving heater can't come soon enough.
You can view our standings on ESPN here, bearing in mind that Adam has one more point on there than he should. Correct standings, as well as how we've picked in comparison to each other, can be found here. One question Adam had was how we suck at consensus games, but if you look back at prior years, we're at about what our usual rate is.
As I try in earnest to get back into contention while Adam continues to rub salt in my open wound from losing nine straight disputed games over the past two weeks, I don't have much of an opportunity to gain ground as we only disagree on two games out of 14. Let's see if I can climb back into it.
Thursday Night
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-3.5)
Lucas: Texans. Going from facing an elite team to... not that should help them right the ship.
Adam: Texans. Not a lot of warm fuzzies about this game. The Colts lost a solid running back to injury, and the Texans got bent over a barrel last week. I’m going with Watson to turn things around against a softer defense at home.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Keep a close eye on the Nick Saban Is A Coward Week slate on Saturday.
Adam: Falcons. Aaaaannnnnddddd just when you are ready to write the team off they come out and go back to back against plus side opponents. This one at home in the dome coming off a thrashing of Carolina should be relatively easy win.If the Falcons hold on to win today, they will be 3-7 on the year, but 2-0 the day after a college team blows a 28-3 lead (Michigan State-Illinois last week, Oklahoma-Baylor this week)— Rodger Sherman (@rodger) November 17, 2019
They require a sacrifice of the young to be cleansed of their sins
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (-4.5)
Lucas: Bills. Almost 100 straight teams had won when taking a 20 point lead into the locker room. The Broncos snapped that streak in Minnesota last week. Taking the tough Bills defense against an unproven Brandon Allen.
Adam: Broncos. I am not in love with this line. I think the Broncos have a fair chance of winning this game outright. Bills gave up way too many points to Miami and Broncos got screwed out of another chance on the last play. The defender was literally pulling the jersey. Should have been an untimed down from the 1.
Lucas note: Counterpoint: the receiver also pushed off and it wasn't called, so if you want to open that can of worms, I can play devil's advocate.
New York Giants @ Chicago Bears (-6.5)
Lucas: Giants. Okay, I shouldn't have a ton of faith in a bad Giants team, but the Bears are a dumpster fire that Matt Nagy just poured kerosene on this past Sunday night. I'm not sure I buy the hip pointer story with Trubisky. I kind of jokingly/hypothetically said something last year about "if he turns out to be a bust," but I didn't expect this.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5)
Lucas: Steelers. I know Pittsburgh laid an egg this past Thursday, but getting the worst team in the league tends to cure a lot of what ails you.
Adam: Steelers. I could almost go Bengals here. They looked much better last week, but they are still garbage.
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns (-10.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. I know this didn't pay off this past week, but I'm going back to it. Cleveland shouldn't be double digit favorites, even at home, especially given that Freddie Kitchens has no control over this team. Also, if the NFL reinstates Myles Garrett for any of this season, Roger Goodell needs to be fired into the sun. Don't hit people with their helmet, kids.
Adam: Dolphins. Straight! Seriously. I’ll take the Fins straight. OK fine, get me 10.5 extra points and I will cover all day. The Browns are coming off a couple wins at home, so they are due for a stumble.
Detroit Lions @ Washington Redskins (+3.5)
Lucas: Lions. When you get blown out by the Jets of all teams, and don't have a quarterback... why should I trust you? Go get that W, Jeff!
Adam: Lions. Let's be honest: Driskel has looked more competent than Mitch. For the record, had both played in all 10 games to this point, Mitch would have thrown for 1970 yds (I adjusted his 9 games played to 8 since he only played like 3 snaps in the Minnesota game), and Driskel 2390. Yes, 20 percent more yards. I get that Driskel’s sample size is only 2 games, but against two of the stronger defenses... maybe Detroit has something here.
Lucas note: What's kind of impressive, looking deeper at the numbers is that Driskel put up those projected yardage numbers while only completing 58.3 percent of his passes; Trubisky is at 62.4. But Driskel is more efficient, passing for one more yard per attempt than Mitch (6.6 to 5.6) for a higher touchdown rate (4.2 to 3.2 percent).
Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets (+2.5)
Lucas: Raiders. I don't care that they blew out the Redskins who suck; the Jets also suck. I'll take Oakland, even coming east and playing early.
Adam: Raiders. I ain’t got no faith in the Jets, not even after spanking the Skins at home in an empty stadium. The Raiders looked down last week too, but I’ll give them a pass.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5)
Lucas: Panthers. Maybe Carolina is broken given how badly they got curbstomped by the Falcons of all teams, but I'll take the backdoor cover potential here.
Adam: Saints. At first, I thought this line was way too high. But then I looked at the Panthers last week; the fact that they have a no name Allen starting at quarterback and the saints have a top 10 run defense... at home with a healthy Brees? Saints by 20.
Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I'l go against the conventional West Coast wisdom again here. I don't know what to make of the Eagles, but I know what to make of the Seahawks.
Adam: Seahawks. Someone started a “just checking if you all still flyin’” meme on NFL Memes much like the Cowboys meme. It also features all of the quarterbacks that have beaten the Eagles. I still like the Cowboys one better, but that Eagles meme will look even more full here in a few days with Wilson on it.
Lucas note: Yeah, this is pretty good. Just wish Rodgers would have been able to be on here. Alas, I'll settle for the fact that the only quarterback on both memes is *checks notes* ... Kirk Cousins?!
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Lucas: Titans. Thank God this game is on a Sunday afternoon and not a Thursday night. Only a small portion of the country has to see this debacle, including *checks notes* Chicago?!
Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots (-6.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Tom Brady getting added to the meme isn't as funny as adding, say... Jeff Driskell, but it's still funny. Let's knock the Cowboys back to reality, shall we?
Adam: Patriots. I am really torn on this line. The Pats' defense is good but offense not as much; the Cowboys are the opposite: offense is good and defense not so much. I am going with Touchdown Tom putting out his anger regarding AB's dismissal.
Lucas note: ...two months late?
Sunday Night
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Lucas: Packers. This is tough just because I'm having Nam-like flashbacks to when Colin Kaepernick ripped the Packers' defense apart in the playoffs, but Green Bay's defense is better than they were then, and can the Niners keep up with the dual Aaron threat? I'm not sure they can. Taking the points and hoping. BRING ME A ONE SEED!
Adam: Packers. The 49ers have looked vulnerable the past few weeks, and let's be honest with each other: A. A. Ron is not coming into SNF and losing to Jimmy G. I’ll take them points and run.
Monday Night
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Rams (+3.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I think the Ravens are now my Super Bowl favorite unless they have to travel to Foxboro for the AFC title game. Lamar Jackson is legit, and having a nice hype man is fun too.
Adam: Ravens. Speaking of running, that is what the Ravens are going to do all night against the Rams. At the start of the season, this game would have been earmarked as a great game; now it will just be mediocre at best and just another opportunity for Lamar to show why he is the MVP.Mark Ingram hyping up Lamar Jackson is the type of content we need 🤣— ESPN (@espn) November 17, 2019
(via @Ravens) pic.twitter.com/GciAnjQkRI
Records So Far
Lucas: 80-82 (6-8 last week)
Adam: 89-73 (9-5 last week)
Joe: 75-87 (7-7 last week)
Geoffrey: 79-83 (8-6 last week)
Aiden: 71-91 (5-9 last week)
Jim: 79-83 (9-5 last week)
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