North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 3 Edition

And so for the last time this season, I take a look at what the NCAA is thinking before all the information comes in.

Once we hit February every winter, the NCAA begins releasing sets of regional rankings to help give everyone a picture of where teams are in the mix of things. The first set from this season I covered has a nice primer on how these rankings get determined, and Ryan Scott from D3Hoops wrote a good article on the process as well.

In this third set, records against regionally ranked foes comes into play as they did last week, but with this set, there's an important caveat to take into it, especially with regards to the CCIW: these rankings only take into account games played through Sunday. Yesterday's results have no bearing on these rankings. This week's results will get compiled into the fourth set of rankings, which will come up once the NCAA Tournament brackets have been released.

So with all of this in mind, let's take a look at the third set of regional rankings.


Women's Basketball
5-19 Overall, 3-12 CCIW*
Central: Unranked (out of 9 teams) (LW: NR)

Once again, I have to note that the standings you see to the right are not the ones that were taken into account with the regional rankings (hence the asterisk). North Central finished with the worst overall record in the CCIW this season and was only a game up on Millikin for last place in the conference going into last night. The Cardinals got the tiebreaker thanks to the oft-mentioned win over Carthage back in December.

Through the weekend, Illinois Wesleyan hadn't locked up the outright CCIW title yet, but they remain second in the Central region in this third set. Now, in this set records against regionally ranked opponents remain, but the first set of rankings no longer count. This takes any wins Illinois Wesleyan had against Wheaton, but they're still 3-3 against regionally ranked opponents this time around. Their .581 strength of schedule is one of the best in the region and is a big reason why they're ranked so highly. The Thunder, meanwhile, move up from sixth last week to fifth in the region. Carthage falling out took two of their three regionally ranked wins away, and a loss got added as well putting them at 1-3 in that category. Their .557 strength of schedule number is still pretty good even though it's below some other contenders.

With the Titans entrenched in the #2 spot, I think they're a lock for the NCAA Tournament, regardless of what happens this weekend. A semifinal loss would hurt a lot but wouldn't knock them out, while if they were to fall in the title game they'll likely be the first team from the Central region to the table, where they won't have a long wait. Wheaton, meanwhile, will feel better with the auto bid, but as long as they make the title game they should be safe as well. They'd drop another RRO result this way (assuming it's to Illinois Wesleyan), but their strength of schedule should be high enough that they'll stand pat in the region and probably be the second team to the table from the region.

Men's Basketball
17-7 Overall, 10-5 CCIW*
Central: 7th (out of 8 teams) (LW: NR)

I'd pretty much written off any chance of an at large bid for North Central after they blew a 21 point lead to Carroll last week. Then they went into King Arena, held Aston Francis completely in check from beyond the arc, and walked out with the conference tiebreaker over Wheaton firmly in hand. That was enough to catapult the Cardinals back into the rankings. Wheaton being in gives the Cardinals that pair of wins against a regionally ranked foe they desperately needed, though their strength of schedule was still a little on the low side (.537), and a pair of losses to Augustana as well as one to Illinois Wesleyan hurts their cause a little bit, leaving their RRO record at 2-4. Remember, this ranking doesn't count their road win in Bloomington last night.

The CCIW is extremely well represented in this set of rankings. Augustana is still entrenched in that #3 spot as they were in the first two, though their strength of schedule took a hit down to .566, though they've got a good mark against regionally ranked foes, especially with North Central back in the rankings. Illinois Wesleyan remained in sixth after clinching a share of the conference title on Saturday up in Kenosha. They've got a .544 strength of schedule, but their record against regionally ranked opponents still leaves a lot to be desired at 2-4. Wheaton dropped a spot to #8 after the Cardinals completed the sweep, with head to head results being a factor. Apparently that outweighed Wheaton being 4-2 against regionally ranked opponents and a .549 strength of schedule.

I'll have a writeup on Friday previewing the CCIW Tournament out in Rock Island, but with regards to the regional rankings, with all four participants ranked, this gives the games this weekend increased importance. Augie at #3 is being considered about as close to a tournament lock as you can get, as even a semifinal loss might drop them a tiny bit, but they'd still get to the table at a reasonable point in the selection process. Illinois Wesleyan has a problem: their loss to North Central adds another regionally ranked loss to their resume. If the Cardinals knock them off again on Friday, you could argue that they're on the wrong side of the bubble. North Central is in fairly rough shape as it is right now too; they've got a number of regionally ranked losses and their strength of schedule isn't great. It will get a boost over the weekend, as well as at least one shot at another RRO result. They need to at least make the title game on Saturday to have a chance. Wheaton is in a similar boat; they've got the RRO results for the most part (North Central aside), but they probably also have to make the conference title game to even have a chance... and that may be an iffy proposition. North Central has a decent shot at being a two bid league this year, but anything beyond that is probably asking too much.