2018 NFL Divisional Preview

Twelve teams entered, and now only eight remain in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy. I've missed out on a quest to hit 11-0 against the spread and straight up. Clearly this is my punishment for correctly guessing the score of Super Bowl XLIII.

I did a decent job picking in the Wild Card round, getting three of the four winners, though underdogs ruled the day in terms of the point spread, leaving me 2-2 in that regard. We'll see what ends up happening this time, as historically the bye favors the home teams to the tune of a nearly 3 in 4 chance of advancing to the conference championship round.

So without further ado, let's look at the matchups for this weekend.


Saturday Afternoon

(6) Atlanta Falcons @ (1) Philadelphia Eagles

Photo by Matt Rourke (AP)

I expected a more high scoring game last Saturday, but the Falcons put the clamps down on the Rams' high octane offense. But they have a tough task ahead of them in the top seeded Eagles. Philly romped its way through the NFC for much of the year before MVP candidate Carson Wentz tore his ACL late in the year. Nick Foles has taken over, and hasn't returned to his 2013 form. With a week of rest and time to prepare, he may be in better shape. The Falcons do have to worry about a tougher defense that finished fourth in both yards and points allowed. That will keep the score of this one down, but that means I'm looking to see who will make more plays: Foles or Matt Ryan. Given history, I'm inclined to lean Ryan, which puts the Falcons back in the NFC title game.

Prediction: Falcons 20, Eagles 13

Saturday Night

(5) Tennessee Titans @ (1) New England Patriots

Photo by Frederick Breedon (Getty Images)

Football's nearly unkillable dynasty returns with home field advantage. After some early season struggles, the Pats got their act together and wreaked havoc upon the league with a 40 year old Tom Brady and the bevy of weapons at his disposal. But the Patriots' defense deserves some credit; they allowed the fifth fewest points in the league this season, and are not prone to blowing leads like the Chiefs just did this past week. New England can be run on, as they had the second worst run defense in terms of yards per carry, so Derrick Henry and Marcus Mariota can do some damage with their legs. But on a Saturday night in January in Foxboro, the Patriots are 9-0. That streak runs to ten.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Titans 20

Sunday, Early Afternoon

(3) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (2) Pittsburgh Steelers

Photo by Justin K. Aller (Getty Images)

The good news for Pittsburgh is that Antonio Brown is expected to return from a torn calf muscle, which would give them their full complement of offensive weaponry to go with Le'Veon Bell and Ben Roethlisberger. But we can't sleep on this defense either; the Steelers finished fifth in yards and seventh in points allowed, proving very stingy against the pass. They can be run on, however; though they finished tenth in rushing yards allowed, they were sixth-worst in yards per carry allowed. Expect to see a heavy dose of Leonard Fournette, who was a key part of helping make sure the Jaguars got past Buffalo. Jacksonville's defense was excellent in containing Tyrod Taylor and the Bills, holding them to a field goal last week. They're going to have a much harder time against a higher octane offense. Jacksonville makes this a game, but we get the Pittsburgh-New England rematch we all expected.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Jaguars 21

Sunday, Late Afternoon

(4) New Orleans Saints @ (2) Minnesota Vikings

Photo by Wesley Hitt (Getty Images)

Minnesota harkened back to the days of the Purple People Eaters, boasting the league's best defense in terms of both scoring and yards, proving especially stingy against the run and equally so against the pass. But their offense also proved deadly as they wore teams down on the ground and did a good amount of damage through the air with Case Keenum's resurgence. He will be able to provide some offense against a pretty good Saints defense, though one that just allowed 26 points to Cam Newton and the Panthers. Carolina keyed in on the two headed monster of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, which allowed Drew Brees to have a throwback performance to lead the Saints to this round. This may be the best game of the weekend. While the Saints are 1-4 on the road in the playoffs with Drew Brees under center, this game will be played indoors, so weather won't be a factor. The other factor to remember: this is the Vikings. In a tight game, especially given what happened just two years ago, I'm expecting something crazy to happen to break the hearts of Vikings fans everywhere.

Prediction: Saints 21, Vikings 20