2018 NFL Conference Championship Preview

After a decent picking weekend in the Wild Card round, I whiffed pretty badly in the Divisional Round. I went 1-2-1 against the spread and 1-3 straight up. Clearly, I needed to listen to Gregg Easterbrook's continued wisdom about the higher seeds being more successful in the divisional rounds.

And thus Championship Weekend is upon us, as we have our final four teams left. Three of the four quarterbacks still standing are quarterbacks who, before the season, I would have laughed at you for saying made it to this point; the fourth is Tom Brady.

But what happens from here? Let's take a look at each of the conference championship games.


Sunday Afternoon

(3) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (1) New England Patriots

Photo by James Lang (USA TODAY Sports)

The Jaguars shocked quite a few people last weekend, jumping out to a huge early lead and hanging on to make their third conference title game in franchise history. Their defense just gave up 42 to the Steelers, but with help from a couple turnovers were able to put up 45 points. They're easily the best big play defense left in the tournament at this point, but can you really count on turnovers from this New England team? The Patriots completely shut down the Titans over the final 45 minutes of the game, a garbage time touchdown notwithstanding. New England is still a defense that can be run on, though they only allowed 65 yards rushing to Tennessee last week. They'll have a tougher test against Leonard Fournette, although he is nursing an ankle injury. I'd still expect him to do some damage. But at the end of the day, Blake Bortles is going to need to make some throws, and while I'm sure he can make some, I don't know that he can do what Tom Brady and that offense can probably do. I'd expect a low scoring outing in this one because that defense can match up reasonably well with New England. But I refuse to count out Touchdown Tom at the end of the day.

Prediction: Patriots 17, Jaguars 14

Sunday Evening

(2) Minnesota Vikings @ (1) Philadelphia Eagles

Photo by Eric Hartline (USA TODAY Sports)

I was off on both of these teams. Philly was able to survive a pair of turnovers and did just enough to stifle a good Atlanta offense to defend home field and make the NFC title game. The Vikings, meanwhile, almost Viking'd before doing the exact opposite of what I predicted and won on the type of play they'd normally lose on. Minnesota's defense shone in the early part of that game, helping build an early 17-0 advantage. And with all due respect to Nick Foles, the Vikings defense is far superior to the Falcons defense. If Case Keenum continues to play at the level he's been playing at, it could be tough for the Eagles to go blow for blow. In the elements with these defenses, I'll call for another low scoring game. As much as I'd love to see the Vikings choke in this round... I'm not entirely sold. Give me a home Super Bowl for Minnesota. (Did I do the jinx right?)

Prediction: Vikings 16, Eagles 13