AFC North Preview

Slowly but surely, we've been working our way around the country. Half the league is done, and we have yet to come across any wild cards. Playing the odds, you'll probably see one today, right? Read on to find out.

Because I have no shame, I'd like to once again invite you readers to join in on picking games against the spread with me. ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em is free, and you can join the COAS group to see how well you can do picking games against me. After all, I can be an idiot sometimes.

But for now, let's get to today's preview. Today, we take a look at the AFC North.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC South, NFC South

1. Cincinnati Bengals
2013: 11-5 (1st), lost in AFC Wild Card Round
While I think he's a good quarterback, I don't understand why the Bengals gave Andy Dalton a 9 figure deal. He leads a good offense though; there's a solid two-pronged rushing attack of Giovani Bernard and the Law Firm, and AJ Green is a legitimate #1 receiver. On defense, the front seven is solid, and while I'm not as high on the secondary as I am that front unit, they allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards in the league last year. That has to count for something. They're good enough to make the playoffs again. I'm just not sold on what happens when they get there.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

2. Baltimore Ravens
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
The Ravens are one of 15 defending Super Bowl champs to miss the playoffs in their title defense year. A down year offensively didn't help (the Ravens were 18th in passing and 30th in rushing last year), and missing Ray Rice for the first two games for being a horrible fiancé during the offseason hurts them too (it should hurt them more than just two games, but that's another story). Joe Flacco gets another weapon this year in Steve Smith, which should help the passing game somewhat. The wheels didn't fall off too bad on defense last year either, and the unit they have isn't too shabby. Drafting CJ Mosley out of Alabama was a good pick in the first, and if he can live up to the standard of Ray Lewis, the Ravens should be in the hunt again this year.
2014 Prediction: 9-7, Wild Card

3. Cleveland Browns
2013: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
Call me crazy, but this defense should be good. Joe Haden is like Nnamdi Asomugha was during his Oakland days, and adding Justin Gilbert to play opposite him makes for a pretty darn good corner tandem. It's the offense that gives me pause. Miles Austin is pretty much the #1 receiver by default since Josh Gordon is done for the year due to suspension. The running game isn't good unless Ben Tate turns into a sleeper, and I'm not sure what to make at quarterback. Brian Hoyer was decent for stretches last year, but if he struggles, Johnny Manziel waits in the wings. (Honestly, I think he's overrated. Will probably become an average starter someday, but not this year).
2014 Prediction: 6-10

4. Pittsburgh Steelers
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
This is probably the biggest "Huh?" that I'm calling for this season., but I think the recent news about top two running backs LeGarrette Blount and Le'veon Bell facing possible suspensions really hurts. Even with Big Ben leading the offense, I'm not sold on their receivers either. There are some interesting names on defense, like first round pick Ryan Shazier, but Troy Polamalu isn't getting any younger. This might be a stretch, but I have a hunch it's going to be a down year for the black and gold.
2014 Prediction: 5-11

There's one wild card, which means the other is coming from the AFC West. If you're looking for a football fix tomorrow before the college games start, I can oblige, especially for my local readers. The NFC North predictions will be up tomorrow! Will they be able to sneak two teams into the playoffs? Check back in the morning and find out!

NFC East Preview

We're just a week away now! The NFL season is on the horizon, and I have five more divisions to get to. Today I'm switching back over to the NFC but staying out on the East Coast... you know, other than Dallas.

With a week to go, there is still time to get in on the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. Follow the provided link to go to the group page and sign up. It's free to play, and you have an opportunity to make me look like a complete idiot. Everyone wins.

With that out of the way, let's take a look at how the NFC East might unfold.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC West, AFC South

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2013: 10-6 (1st), lost in NFC Wild Card Round
Not the easiest schedule in the world for second year coach Chip Kelly. He has the first place teams in the NFC plus the NFC West. Even with that, there's no reason to think this offense still can't blur their way down the field. They were a top-10 passing team and the top rushing attack in 2013. Those numbers will probably drop a bit with Desean Jackson departed for Washington. Shady McCoy will still probably put up huge numbers though. The biggest problem though remains in that this defense couldn't stop a nosebleed last year. They'll have to rely on winning shootouts. Fortunately for them, that's something they can do.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

2. Dallas Cowboys
2013: 8-8 (2nd), missed playoffs
So, other than Jerry Jones turning into Uncle Creepy... this was more of the same old, same old from Arlington. The cap situation is a mess, the team itself is a mess... and yet somehow, despite my grandfather-in-law's lack of faith in this team (he lives in the Dallas area), they'll be in position to make the playoffs in the final week before blowing it in unbelievable fashion. Tony Romo will continue to put up numbers, especially as long as Jason Witten and Dez Bryant are healthy. Problem is, this defense... oh boy. We might see a lot of games like last year's shootout with Denver.
2014 Prediction: 8-8

3. Washington Redskins
2013: 3-13 (4th), missed playoffs
With the benefit of a (hopefully) healthy RG3 and a last place schedule, the Redskins should be on the way back up this season. Having Desean Jackson defect helps a lot too. Offensively, between the passing game and the Alfred Morris/Roy Helu running back tandem, they'll be fine. It's the defense that's concerning, much like the rest of the division. Picking up Ryan Clark is a pretty good addition to a secondary that will need the help, given Brandon Meriweather is being a thug again. As long as Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan get a decent pass rush, the Skins can be in contention again this year.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

4. New York Giants
2013: 7-9 (3rd), missed playoffs
The G-Men had an off year last year, especially Eli. I doubt he'll have an 18/27 touchdown to pick ration again. It'll be interesting to see though if Rueben Randle can become a competent #2 receiver across from Victor Cruz though. I really don't know what to expect on the ground though; Rashad Jennings was okay as part of a tandem last year, but who backs him up? On defense, getting Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie helps shore up the secondary, but can the Giants get the pass rush they've gotten during their two recent Super Bowl runs? If not, it could be a long year in the Meadowlands.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

And with that, we're at the halfway mark. And so far, no wild cards have shown up. You can check back tomorrow to see if one is present in the AFC North.

AFC East Preview

We're back from the distractions! With Week 1 of the college football schedule numbers out of the way, I can return to NFL-related posting.

Today we head out to the East Coast and look at the AFC teams out there. It's all but been a one team division since the last expansion, but will there really be any difference this year?

Random aside before we begin: I'm still taking entries for another week in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em competition. Want to pick games against the spread with me and a guest picker on a weekly basis? Follow the link above to join for free!

All right, enough shameless plugs. Let's get to it.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC West, NFC North

1. New England Patriots
2013: 12-4 (1st), lost in AFC Championship Game
As long as Tom Brady remains at quarterback for New England, the Pats will be the favorites in the division. The big question remains about their weapons though. When your best two wideouts are Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, you have to be slightly concerned, especially when Rob Gronkowski is still a question mark in terms of health. On defense, the Pats might finally have their stoppers at cornerback after signing Brandon Browner and picking up Darelle Revis. He may not be what we was four years ago, but Revis should be a big help to a middle-of-the-pack back end from last year.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

2. New York Jets
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
Surprise, surprise: the big thing we heard out of Jets camp is big talk. It's what the Jets are best at. It only makes sense then that they picked up Chris Johnson in the offseason, though whether he can regain his form from his heyday remains to be seen. On the other side of the ball, linebacker Calvin Pace called this defense the best in the NFL. Um... no. There's definitely some good young talent in Dee Milliner and Calvin Pryor in the secondary. I'm not totally sold on the rest though. This isn't a bad team like they were towards the end of the Mark Sanchez era. Geno Smith needs to markedly improve from his rookie campaign though if the Jets want to compete.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

3. Miami Dolphins
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
Really, I'm not sure how last year could have gone worse for the 'Fins. They had the huge controversy with Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin; now both men are gone. Mike Wallace struggled in his first year in Miami, and will need to have a better year if the Dolphins want to compete. The defense is all right, and they added a decent safety in Louis Delmas, but the biggest what-if for Miami is Ryan Tannehill. He's been average in his first couple years, and needs to make a leap if they want a shot at the playoffs.
2014 Prediction: 6-10

4. Buffalo Bills
2013: 6-10 (4th), missed playoffs
EJ Manuel is in Year Two, and hopefully for the Bills is more prepared this season. He has a fun new toy to work with in first round pick Sammy Watkins. This might mean some serious passing yardage this year, we'll have to see. On defense Jairus Byrd is gone, and now there's something of a void in the middle of the field. The front seven isn't terrible though, depending on how well Mario Williams plays this season. It'll be a rough year I think though, as Manuel continues to go through some growing pains.
2014 Prediction: 4-12

I'll be back at it tomorrow as we switch conferences and go to arguably the weakest division in football in the NFC East. Also, I get to make fun of Jerry Jones again. Good times.

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 1

We're here! The college football season officially kicks off tomorrow night, and with that, the preparations for the playoffs begin! You can read up on how the playoffs will be set up at the introductory post here. But basically, every Tuesday will be the kickoff of a new week of the season, so every Tuesday I will go through the schedule for the upcoming week and break it down for the NCSS ranking.

While it's imperfect, basically either going on the road or playing a "Power conference" opponent gets you more points, while teams are penalized for cupcake games (even though I understand their purpose, as far as your strength of schedule goes, you deserve a hit for it). What I do in this post is take the average score for each conference on a week by week basis (rounded to the nearest hundredth for ease), with some specifics about what teams are doing. On the whole, the independents will obviously have the highest scores, followed by teams that have more non-conference games (likely, the SEC with its 8 game conference slates will have higher scores than the Big XII teams, with their 9 game conference slates), so it's a flawed system in some ways. But it can help determine the strength of the part of the schedule teams can control. Let's take a look at our opening slate.

NFC South Preview

We're back at it this morning, a little earlier since I'm back at the office. I'm up against the clock, so I'm working to get all of my NFL previews up in time for the season to start in 10 days. With the college season starting up this week, I have to get those posts in too, so I'll have a break from the NFL tomorrow before getting back to it on Wednesday.

I'm still taking people who want to pick games against the spread this NFL season in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. Follow the link above if you want to join in. It's free, and you can see if you're smarter (or luckier, since a lot of this is a crapshoot) than someone who thinks he knows a ton about sports.

With that out of the way, let's get to the preview. Today, we look at the NFC South.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC North, AFC North

1. New Orleans Saints
2013: 11-5 (2nd), lost in NFC Divisional Round
Somehow this defense gave up the second fewest passing yards per game in the league last season, and they arguably only got better, adding Jairus Byrd at safety and getting a little veteran depth with Champ Bailey at corner. They'll be good again this year probably, but the bigger threat is obviously this offense. A list of the best receivers in the NFL likely won't have Marques Colston, Kenny Stills or Robert Meachem too close to the top, the fact that they play with Drew Brees elevates them another level. Overall, this is a division that always seems to avoid repeat winners, so I'm picking the Saints to reclaim their throne this year.
2014 Prediction: 11-5

2. Carolina Panthers
2013: 12-4 (1st), lost in NFC Divisional Round
This team had a reversal of fortune in close games thanks to the timely arrival of Riverboat Ron. I figure some regression to the mean will happen this year. The defense remains solid, especially with Luke Kuechly at the center of it all. The problem here this year though will likely be on offense. Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart aren't getting any younger, and as much as Cam Newton is turning into a really good quarterback, he really doesn't have anyone to throw to with Steve Smith's departure. This team will still be pretty good overall, but not like last year.
2014 Prediction: 9-7

3. Atlanta Falcons
2013: 4-12 (T-3rd), missed playoffs
The Falcons were arguably the unluckiest team in the NFL last year. Roddy White and Julio Jones combined for 104 catches and 14 missed games in 2013 (Jones missed the final 11 games of the year). Both should be back this season to help Matt Ryan out, but where he really needs help is the offensive line. Ryan got killed back there last year (sacked 44 times), and has already lost left tackle Sam Baker for the year. On the other side, this group was gashed by opposing running games all year. While they added some depth on defense this year, it's hard to say how much they'll improve. With better luck, they'll improve on a bad 2013.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2013: 4-12 (T-3rd), missed playoffs
Bad news this year: I can't make fun of Greg Schiano. Good news this year: I can make fun of Lovie Smith again. Either Josh McCown or Mike Glennon will start at quarterback, which should improve the worst passing attack of 2013. Defensively, this was an average squad last year. Lovie's presence will almost certainly improve that, though this squad isn't quite the caliber of what he had back during his tenure with the Bears. Tampa is on the way back up, but in this division, I'm not sure how good they'll be.
2014 Prediction: 5-11

Wednesday we head east... or a little north I guess, when you look at the geography. The AFC East is next, following tomorrow's look at the opening week of college football.

AFC South Preview

We're almost here! I've been kind of anxious for the NFL season to get underway for a while now. I've been wanting to get to preparing for another college football playoff, a process that starts Tuesday, but I'm just as excited for the pro level to begin.

Like in previous years, I'm going division by division to preview how I think teams are going to finish the 2014 campaign. Like last year, I'm ending with the division of the defending champ, so the NFC West will pop up next week.

Also this year, I will be renewing the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em, and I will be re-instituting picking with a guest writer. He's been excited to join in on this since during the season last year, and I'm excited to have him.

So without further ado, let's dive into the previews, starting with the AFC South.

Common opponents: AFC North, NFC East

1.  Indianapolis Colts
2013: 11-5 (1st), lost in AFC Divisional Round
The schedule gets tougher for this year's Colts after they reclaimed ownership of the division last year. To me for this year, the bigger issue is the offensive line, and how well they do protecting third-year star Andrew Luck. Luck has good weapons at receiver again this year, but I wonder about his running game too. Will Trent Richardson bounce back from an awful year last year? And what about the defense? They've gotten away with it the past couple years in terms of getting to the postseason, but will they hold up against the attacks of teams like Philly, Denver and New England? I think given their overall schedule, they'll be fine.
2014 Prediction: 11-5

2. Houston Texans
2013: 2-14 (4th), missed playoffs
One of the biggest goofs I made last year? Picking the Texans to repeat as division champs. For whatever reason, Matt Schaub turned into a pick-6 machine and Houston couldn't really stop anything. They shored up their defense in the offseason, including drafting Jadeveon Clowney to line up opposite JJ Watt, which is terrifying. Facing a last place schedule, they have some very winnable games. Bill O'Brien proved he's a good coach during his stint at Penn State. But can he get Ryan Fitzpatrick back to the level he was at a few years ago when he got that big contract from Buffalo? If he does, the Texans might contend for a wild card.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

3. Tennessee Titans
2013: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
The keys to the Titan offense have officially been passed to Jake Locker. Looking at his stats, he's actually been a bit better than I would have thought. They made a change at running back too, with Shonn Greene taking over the starting running back role with the departure of Chris Johnson. I'm not too sold on their receiving corps, with Nate Washington as the #1 guy. Defensively, I'm not really sold on these guys either. And Tennessee isn't playing New England, so the Bernard Karmell Pollard curse isn't a factor.
2014 Prediction: 5-11

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2013: 4-12 (3rd), missed playoffs
This team was bad last year (remember, they were 27.5 point dogs at Denver last year). The advantage of being so bad? They potentially have their franchise quarterback now in Blake Bortles, though we said that about Blaine Gabbert too. Problem is, their starting running back is Toby Gerhart, though he was a good backup to Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. Meanwhile, this is a bad defense that really didn't do a lot to improve. They're on the right track as long as Bortles develops well, but they're not going anywhere this year.
2014 Prediction: 4-12

I'm back to work tomorrow, and I'll switch conferences over to the NFC South.

Dead BCS, Living Better Playoff

In 2012, the yearnings of fans finally broke through the corrupt umbrella of the big conference commissioners: the FBS level schools finally agreed to put an end to the travesty known as the BCS and adopt a playoff to determine a champion. So for the first time, biased and uninformed polls as well as corrupt computer formulas won't decide a paper champion in college football. This year, a selection committee picks the four teams that will get to play for a title. It's a step in the right direction... but it's not quite enough.

This is the new playoff. It's a start.

My concern remains that the committee will be biased towards the big conferences, even if a mid major runs the table. This is why I continue to advocate for the system created by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan in Death to the BCS. Though with realignment, we have 10 conferences instead of 11, I still like the idea of a 16 team tournament where in reality, every team has a chance to play for a title (win your conference, and you're automatically in). The odds of, say, the Sun Belt champion going on the road to Tuscaloosa or some other traditional football power source and winning is very slim, but they at least have a shot at it, unlike how the old system (and even the current system) plays out.

So for the fourth year in a row (I guess technically third, since the first year had a belated test run with the system), I will be building a playoff using the Wetzel, Peter and Passan system. Sixteen teams enter: the ten conference champions all get in automatically, with the rest of the field being filled out by either independents who ran the table, or any teams that saw some stumbling blocks on their road but still played excellent football for three months. And as I've gotten more experience following regular season results to build a field, I've been able to advance my tools to help me build said field.

The teams that make the tournament are seeded by a selection committee (read: me, though contact me if you want to be a part of the committee to give me another set of eyes and another brain to help decide these things) in an evolving process. The first time was a very organic "Who had the best records, and of them, who had the best wins and/or the least egregious losses?" process. This has since led to my building new metrics to help me out, or borrowing them from Illinois' high school football system. I've made some tweaks to the system this year.