With only 15 games completed this past week there wasn't as much opportunity to make moves, but moves were in fact made. Adam and I split our two disputed games and we each took four of five disputed from Joe. That provided a reversal of fortunes from Week 16 as Adam has leapfrogged Joe, while I managed to jump back into first place. But my grasp is tenuous at best, as the top four in our group are all separated by a game apiece going into the pivotal Week 18.
You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here, and Adam's tracking of home/road favorite/underdog plus timeslot breakdowns here. We seem to have settled in around 44 percent on consensus picks and as a group we are 48-33 on hero picks. The general numbers seem to favor the bold. (Well, unless you're me, with a group-low 5-7 mark in hero picks).
And so as we go into the final gauntlet (barring a resumption of the Week 17 Monday Night game), Adam and I disagree on six games, Joe and I on four, and Adam and Joe on four games out of 16. Let's get to it!
Saturday Afternoon
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5)
Lucas: Raiders. Purely a points pick, but the Raiders are still a poverty franchise.
Adam: Raiders. KC has been playing down lately, at least against the spread anyway. I think I’ll roll the dice on this relatively low line seeing as when they are double digit favorites they cannot seem to cover.
Joe: Chiefs.
Saturday Night
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Welcome to the playoffs, Sunshine.
Adam: Jaguars. Ride into the sunset, Sunshine.
Joe: Jaguars.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. I know in the grand scheme of things this game means absolutely nothing because the Bucs are locked into the 4 seed and Atlanta is out, but I think Tampa gets a tuneup win to somehow get above .500 and look at least semi-respectable. We'll see how the playoff run goes though.
Adam: Buccaneers. Seems very Tampa Bay to just play well enough to beat a down NFC South and eke into the playoffs, but they are, of course, peaking at the right time. Tampa Bay to the Super Bowl? Probably not, but still... it is Touchdown Tom.
Joe: Buccaneers.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
Lucas: Bills. With literally the entire sports world behind them. Best wishes for a full and speedy recovery, Damar Hamlin.
Adam: Bills. First off, prayers for Hamlin. This game will either be one no one wants to play, or an absolute rallying cry. So Buffalo by 1 or by 21; both are equally possible.
Lucas note: This follows one of the most important betting rules: Never bet against God, puppies, or first home games for teams whose teammates were just hospitalized. Yes, that third one tends to change to fit the situation, but still: the rule applies.
Joe: Bills.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (+3.5)
Lucas: Vikings. I'mma take a moment to talk about the NFC North rivalries. I enjoy watching the Bears fall apart, and some of my favorite sports talk radio is Chicago postgame shows following Bears losses (Buffone and O'Bradovich was an all-time duo). But I respect the franchise as a charter member of the NFL, my team's longtime rival and nemesis, and as the team of my homeland. Aaaaaaand then there's drivel like this from the land of 10,000 lakes.
Lucas note: This pick isn't changing; I was taking the Vikings regardless of the Bears shutting down Fields. But as I've been saying: the Vikings are frauds, this past Sunday proved it, and they're going to get embarassed in the playoffs. And fans like the above deserve it.
Adam: Vikings. This line has "We expected Minnesota to sit players" written all over it. But rumor has it the Vikings will play its starters to seal up the #2 seed. That plays in my favor as a Bears fan who still could garner the #1 pick in the draft, but also because the line is likely depressed when it shouldn’t be.
Joe: Vikings.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
Lucas: Bengals. They need Lamar back, desperately. Man is going to secure the bag this offseason.
Adam: Bengals. In Cincy, the sight of that harrowing scene this past Monday. More prayers for Hamlin.
Joe: Bengals.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Lucas: Colts. Would be hilarious to see Jeff Saturday pick up his second win and have that be the catalyst to keep him around to keep the Colts as a lolcow franchise.
Adam: Texans. This is the dumpster fire game a dumpster fire would call a dumpster fire... but Houston has played competitively all season and they must complete their tanking’s tank and win this game to lose the #1 draft pick to my Bears. Go Texans!
Joe: Texans.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-0.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. Man, New York is gonna be a contender next year if they play their offseason cards right.
Adam: Dolphins. Miami has the much better playmakers in my opinion.
Joe: Dolphins.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Lucas: Saints. I could see this going either way, so I'll give the home team the benefit of the doubt.
Adam: Panthers. Does this game even matter? I was playing with the ESPN playoff machine and I couldn’t find a set of game results where it matters. Oh well.
Lucas note: Yeah, this game means absolutely nothing.
Joe: Saints.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Stillers gahnta Superbowl.
Adam: Steelers. Just for the playoff implications. I know there is a least 1 set of results that puts Pittsburgh in; I couldn’t find one for Cleveland.
Lucas note: Yeah, Cleveland is out. The Steelers need a win, plus losses by the Patriots and Dolphins.
Joe: Steelers.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (+3.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Kill the Broncos' season already. Moving on.
Adam: Broncos. Just to hear “Broncos Country... Let's Ride” one more time.
Joe: Chargers.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5)
Lucas: Giants. Was... was the linemaker drunk when they set up this one? Have they not seen the dumpster fire Philly has been sans Jalen Hurts? Even though the Eagles are playing for the division title and the top seed, this won't be a multi-score game. Taking the points.
Adam: Giants. I know this game has seeding implications, but its still a divisional game. The G-Men show up. Lose... but show up. Plus I am not sure Hurts plays.
Lucas note: Wednesday afternoon, Jalen Hurts was listed as a limited participant in Wednesday's practice for the Eagles, and I guess that included first team reps. He was limited again on Thursday. Not sure yet what this will mean for Sunday.
Joe: Giants.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. This one I could see going either way, but I'll hope for a worst case backdoor cover.
Adam: 49ers. Arizona has just had a bad, bad season. Nothing seems to go right for them, and I think Colt McCoy is in protocol now, plus Hopkins was out, JJ Watt is retiring, and Kliff Kingsbury is likely on the way out. Just bad juju in Arizona.
Joe: 49ers.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Okay, real talk? Seattle got screwed by the ratings gods. They'll do what they need to... then watch nervously Sunday night.
Adam: Rams. Seattle needs a win and help from Detroit to make the playoffs. I think the Rams would love to play spoiler to an in-division rival.
Joe: Seahawks.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders (+3.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I mean... not knowing you were playing an elimination game and starting Carson Freaking Wentz has to be a fireable offense for Ron Rivera, right?
Adam: Cowboys. Technically Dallas has a chance at the #1 seed, but it would take close to a miracle: a win, a Philly loss AND and (it's a big AND) Arizona beats San Francisco. They maybe get the first two, but highly unlikely to get the last one. An NFC East division championship is much more plausible, but still less likely.
Joe: Cowboys.
Sunday Night
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Lucas: Packers. Run the freaking table.
Adam: Lions. Now look, if Dallas wins (likely) and Philly loses (not as likely but still very possible), and Seattle loses (I am hopeful), that means whoever wins this game gets to meet Dallas in Dallas to complete the annual one and done for the Heiferladies. I am picking Detroit in the spread because it allows for either team to win the game outright and therefore either team to make the triumphant march into Jerra’s world and make the Heiferladies sad pandas! But seriously, how can I pick if I want A A Ron to do it or the Lions? It's like picking your favorite kid, you just cannot do it.
Lucas note: Adam texted me this afternoon saying I'd particularly like this. I wasn't sure at first when I skimmed to the top and saw Detroit as his pick... but reading his rationale? I'm on board.
Joe: Lions.
Records So Far
Lucas: 121-134 (9-6 last week)
Adam: 119-136 (9-6 last week)
Joe: 118-137 (7-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 112-143 (7-8 last week)
Jim: 120-135 (6-9 last week)
Tom: 114-141 (7-8 last week)
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