2019 NFL Wild Card Preview

Even in a year where my team isn't in the playoffs once again... I just can't quit the NFL.

While Jen won the 2018 Pigskin Pick 'Em contest with me finishing just one game back, Adam clearly can't quit the NFL either even after a last place finish. He texted me Wednesday evening asking if we were doing anything for the playoffs. And because I can't help myself along with the fact that I've been doing this for years, we are going to go through the NFL playoff slate once again.

Last year it was just me, and I didn't track how I did against the spread. This year we're going to track that information, with Adam grabbing lines Thursday morning off of Bovada.

In a few weeks we will do our usual feature of Super Bowl prop bets, but this year we're doing the appetizer leading up to the main course. Here's a look at Wild Card Weekend.


Saturday Afternoon

(6) Indianapolis Colts @ (3) Houston Texans (-1.0)

Photo by Matt Kryger (Indy Star)

Lucas: These teams split their first two meetings, with the road team winning each contest. I could see that happening again. Indy's ground game is not good and will struggle against a stout Texan front, but last time these teams met, Andrew Luck stayed upright and lit up Houston's secondary. Houston's given up quite a bit through the air in every game since except for the Week 17 tilt against Blake Bortles, but Andrew Luck is several steps up. As much as I'd like to think home field can play a role here, I don't know that it will. I see Luck continuing to do damage through the air and give the Colts their first playoff win in four years. Give me the upset. Colts 31, Texans 25
Adam: I must start off by saying that I originally seriously considered taking the push on this line. It will be an extremely close game that will easily be decided by less than one score, and possibly in the waning moments of the game. I'm playing the trend and taking the upswing Indy has had and the relative downswing Houston has had. I see this being the weakest of the four games. In terms of Super Bowl contenders, I do not see either of these teams making it past their next opponent regardless of who it is. I see a sloppy game as well one with some dumb, stupid and ill-timed penalties. It will come down to who controls the clock and who gets the ball last. Colts 28, Texans 27

Saturday Night

(5) Seattle Seahawks @ (4) Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)

Photo by Ronald Martinez (Getty Images)

Lucas: These two teams met way back in September, with the Seahawks righting the ship after an 0-2 start. Since then both teams have only gotten better, with Dallas' defense emerging as one of the better units in the NFL. Ezekiel Elliott had a week off against New York and thus should be fresh for a matchup he has to be drooling over: Seattle had the third-worst yards per carry against average in the league, though the counting stats had the Seahawks as a pretty good run defense (13th in yards allowed, but fifth in attempts). On the other side, a strong Seattle ground game is going to have a tough time with a stout Dallas run defense. In the end, I think it comes down to whether the Seahawks can stop Zeke and if Russell Wilson can make enough plays. Which Dak Prescott shows up is also important, as he's been wildly inconsistent this year. I feel like we're due for a mediocre Dak performance, which means another upset! Seahawks 20, Cowboys 17
Adam: Ah, once again it seems Dallas is getting a helping hand with the officiating crew. The beneficial crew chief who ran the New Orleans game is running this game. I wonder how much money was "donated" for that result. Here is the battle cry we will all hear in Arlington late on Saturday: "Fire Garrett, Fire Garrett!" I see Dallas getting bottled up early and often; they have shown that their offense needs both the running game and the throwing game to be on in order to have any success. They will have one at various times, but usually not both in this game. I see Dallas scoring on a pick-six and punt return. Seattle, on the other hand, will be able to muster up a solid game consistently putting up points and winning solidly. Seahawks 38, Cowboys 31

Sunday, Early Afternoon

(5) Los Angeles Chargers @ (4) Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Photo from Associated Press (photographer uncredited)

Lucas: The Chargers did indeed get snakebitten: 12-4 yet having to go on the road. Not that it would have mattered; their home game would have been home in name only and been invaded by Ravens fans. Now the elements come into play as well, and that should only help one of the league's best defenses. The Ravens were the best in yards allowed and second in points allowed, with top three efficiency numbers (second in net yards per pass attempt, third in yards per carry). You also have something of a wild card in Lamar Jackson, who has played well this year in relief of the injured Joe Flacco, but is getting his first taste of playoff football. But this Charger defense is no slouch either, so we should be in for a nice one here. I'll go out on a limb and say it comes down to Anthony Lynn going for two and a win again, this time falling just short. Ravens 17, Chargers 16
Adam: A slippery game that could, in theory, go either way. For like the past 4 years, I seem to simply forget about the Ravens and each year they seem to bubble up in ways that I just don't seem to see. I see this game having a low scoring first half as the Ravens defense flusters Rivers and crew and the newly crowned quarterback in Baltimore, Lamar Jackson, has some early growing pains. In the second half, it will be a battle of Rivers' arm versus Lamar's legs. I see the arm prevailing. Chargers 24, Ravens 21

Sunday, Late Afternoon

(6) Philadelphia Eagles @ (3) Chicago Bears (-6.0)

Photo by Bill Streicher (USA TODAY Sports)

Lucas: I spent last January and February doubting Nick Foles, and at the time with good reason. Then he went and beat Tom Brady to win a Super Bowl and now I don't even know anymore. Foles is back under center again and continuing to do Nick Foles things. But this time around he's got himself another tough test in a ridiculous Bears defense. Chicago allowed the fewest points this season and had the best net yards per attempt against as well. Meanwhile, the Eagles can be run against and aren't great running the ball themselves either. In a January game on the lakefront, that ball and clock control could be all the difference, and I think the Bears take a nice step on Sunday. Bears 24, Eagles 14
Adam: Ah, it's good to see the Bears back in the playoffs. Philly put on quite a show in order to get back to here; just six or so weeks ago it seemed that their chances were all but DOA. But insert Philly Philly man Napoleon and look at that: back in business. I see this game starting on a down note for the Bears. Between the excitement of a playoff game and the lack of experience, I see Philly coming out strong up 10 or so early. Around the end of the 2nd or 3rd quarter, the Bears will turn it up and blister Philly back home. Bears 34, Eagles 17