Monday, January 30, 2017

Game Notes: (MBK) Wheaton College @ North Central College (1/28/17)

Final Score
NCC 69, Wheaton 55

Game Summary
I had a brief sense of déjà vu in this one as the Thunder (8-10, 4-5) opened the game on a 5-0 run, but the Cardinals (11-8, 5-5) responded much more quickly, answering with seven straight to make it a ball game. The teams traded advantages for much of the first half with five ties and 10 lead changes. The Thunder went up by as many as six with about two and a half minutes to go before the Cardinals narrowed the gap to 34-33 at the break. North Central tied the game two minutes into the second half, then grabbed the lead a possession later. Wheaton kept it close for a couple minutes, but the Cardinals went on a 10-0 run to break the game open at 53-40. The Thunder would close the gap to seven, but a 9-0 Cardinal run spanning just under two minutes put the game away.

Key Stats
  • Aiden Chang (NCC): 5-11 FG (3-7 3PT), 2-2 FT; 15 pts, 3 reb (1 off), 2 ast. Chang had an excellent night, finishing the first half with eight points, including a 2-3 half from beyond the arc. He also had some key baskets in the second half, including a key putback to spark that 9-0 run in the second half (more on that below). He also capped off that run with a three that served as the dagger.
  • Jaquan Phipps (NCC): 3-4 FG, 1-1 FT; 7 pts, 2 reb (1 off), 1 stl. JQ is usually a defensive stopper off the bench for Todd Raridon, and he served as such for most of Saturday's game, but he had some key offense for the Cardinals in the second half, picking Thunder point guard Luke Peters' pocket, driving to the basket and getting the old fashioned three point play during the aforementioned 10-0 run. He later capped it off with a layup on a second chance opportunity, and added a putback a minute and a half later to finish his scoring. Again, he's a defensive guy, so any offense he adds is a bonus, but his offense on Saturday was a key.
  • Aston Francis (WHE): 6-16 FG (1-5 3PT); 13 pts, 2 reb (1 off), 2 ast. Francis is going to be in the conversation for First Team All-CCIW, and deservedly so; he's been the guy for the Thunder this season, and the Cardinals knew going in that they were going to have to stop him to beat Wheaton. Francis had a good first half, putting up 10 points on 5-10 shooting, but he was completely shut down in the second half, only hitting a three from about 28 feet away. Tommy Koth and Jagger Anderson were on him much of the night and did a great job keeping him in check.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • North Park 70 (15-4, 8-2), @ Elmhurst 62 (6-13, 2-8)
  • @ Carthage 74 (13-6, 6-4), Augustana 70 (15-4, 8-2) (OT)
  • Carroll 75 (11-8, 6-4), @ Millikin 66 (3-16, 1-9)
  • BYE: Illinois Wesleyan (12-6, 4-5)
Final Thoughts
The Cardinals had the benefit of playing their first two games of the second half of the double round robin at home against lower tier CCIW opponents, but they've really taken advantage of it by beating up on a bad Millikin team on Wednesday and then on Saturday taking command early in the second half and imposing their will on the Thunder. The win puts the Cardinals firmly in fifth place in the CCIW, just a game out of a playoff spot.

We had a couple fun moments during that game that I wanted to bring up. At the end of the first half, Wheaton nearly stole all the momentum on a three quarter court heave that somehow went in. The only problem is that that somehow was the result of a deflection off the stanchion holding up the basket. I was already announcing the halftime score as the heave fell in because I could tell it had no chance... until it did. However, you can't score that way, and rewatching the shot shows it came after the buzzer, and after some discussion amongst the officials and my signalling no basket at the table, they discounted the shot and it remained a one point game going into the break.

Speaking of the officials, I don't think this was a particularly well officiated game, as both coaches were complaining for chunks of the game. Todd Raridon received a warning in the second half for coming out of the coaches' box, a rule that is often broken but rarely enforced. Later in the half, Wheaton coach Mike Schauer was protesting a call and demanded that the official give him an out of the box warning just so they would listen to him, and he was obliged.

The kicker was on Aiden Chang's aforementioned putback that sparked the clinching 9-0 run. There was a jump ball immediately before that shot, and the Cardinals had one second on the shot clock. The Cardinals inbounded high to Alex Sorenson, whose shot got enough of the rim to allow a shot clock reset and allow Chang to put it back up and in. The buzzer did sound, but the officials did not whistle the play dead for a shot clock violation. Schauer was furious, ripped off his jacket a la the immortal Grey Giovanine, and was screaming at the refs about how it was a shot clock violation. He would later come to the table to complain to us about how the ball did not hit the rim. I don't know why he was complaining to us; we did everything right at the table. The buzzer went off, but the refs didn't blow the whistle.

The Cardinals have a chance to move into a tie for one of the tournament spots as they welcome Carroll to Gregory Arena for the first time in 25 years on Wednesday. They need this one, as four of North Central's final five games will be away from the comforts of Merner Fieldhouse. They also need it because of Carroll's earlier win over the Cardinals combined with their tie for third place in the CCIW.

Game Notes: (WBK) Wheaton College @ North Central College (1-28-17)

Final Score
Wheaton 112, NCC 71

Game Summary
This is a game I'm going to want to repress from my memory. The Thunder (15-3, 8-1) overcame an immediate steal and missed three with a three of their own, and things just cascaded from there as the Thunder scored the game's first 22 points. It wasn't until just over six minutes in that the Cardinals (10-9, 4-6) finally got on the board with a free throw, but wouldn't get their first field goal until the final minute of the frame, and when the buzzer finally sounded and the dust cleared, the Thunder were up 33-5. The Cardinals got a little offense going early in the second quarter, but Wheaton still kept up the pressure against a Cardinal defense that fell back away from the press and led 57-19 at the break. Wheaton led by as many as 51 in the third quarter, but the Cardinals closed the frame on a 15-4 run to make it a 40 point game after three. The Thunder called off the dogs fairly early in the fourth, hit the century mark with 7:11 to play, and would lead by as many as 53 before the Cardinals came back to only lose by 41.

Key Stats
  • Wheaton: 43-71 FG (60.6%). I had 'Nam-like flashbacks to this matchup from two years ago, except in that game the Cardinals actually showed up. But Wheaton shot incredibly well all game, and this wasn't just a layup line type of game. Wheaton was hitting jumpers all night, shot at a decent clip from beyond the arc, and many of these shots were relatively open. Kent Madsen knows how to beat The System, and continues to have the personnel in place to do so.
  • Kelly Lawson (WHE): 9-14 FG (2-3 3PT), 7-7 FT; 27 pts, 3 reb (2 off), 4 ast, 1 stl. Lawson killed the Cardinals early and often in this one, boosting her scoring average by a point (and I thought it would be more). Most of her baskets were those aforementioned jumpers, and there's a degree of "You can't do anything about it" with them.
  • Katie McDaniels (WHE): 6-6 FG, 8-11 FT; 20 pts, 9 reb (2 off), 7 ast, 5 stl. Anytime you can put up a quadruple-nickel, you have to do it. The preseason All-American showed why she earned those honors and is probably going to win CCIW Player of the Year this year, affecting the game at both ends. One of her layups in the early going, you can hear the exasperation in my voice announcing her name as the scoring player. It was that kind of night.
North Central System Watch
  • Wheaton Turnovers: 20. This isn't a bad total considering the opponent, but when you turn it over 25 times yourself, you're gonna have a bad time. Natali Dimitrova picked up 3 steals and Lyndsay Brennan and Shannon Ryan each had two.
  • NCC 3PT: 15-51 (29.4%). For an awful, awful game, this number is okay. Anita Sterling got hot later in the game, and ten players in all hit at least one three. The percentage brings their season total up a little bit, and it was nice to get to yell the names of freshmen like Veronica LaVia and Maddie McHugh, who don't get a ton of run time and got their first threes at home this season (at least as far as I can remember).
  • NCC Charges Drawn: 1. Anita Sterling picked up another one. I've lost track of exactly how many she has this year, but hers on Saturday came in the second half with the outcome long since decided. I still got excited about it, and this is why I continue to argue that the charge must be kept as an official stat.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • @ Elmhurst 85 (16-3, 8-2), North Park 71 (9-10, 2-8)
  • @ Carthage 73 (10-8, 5-5), Augustana 62 (13-6, 6-4)
  • @ Millikin 91 (9-10, 3-7), Carroll 59 (1-17, 1-9)
  • BYE: Illinois Wesleyan (12-6, 7-2)
Final Thoughts
I caught up with Michelle Roof postgame and she was... not pleased. She said she had flashbacks to the Hope game from a few years ago, which I can't say aren't unfounded. The difference between then and now is that Hope was a much better team and that Cardinal team wasn't as good as this one. Either way, it's still a pretty apt comparison. It's embarrassing to get the doors blown off of you in your own gym, especially when you fall behind 22-0 in the first six minutes. I imagine she'll run them hard in practice this week.

Big picture wise, this loss puts the Cardinals into what is effectively must-win territory. They're in sixth place in the CCIW, two games out of a playoff spot and one behind Carthage for fifth place with the tiebreaker there in doubt. The next couple of weeks are relatively forgiving in terms of the schedule, but the season ends with a pair of tough road games. In the immediate future, the Cardinals have a bye on Wednesday before heading to the north side of Chicago to take on North Park on Saturday.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Game Notes: (MBK): Millikin University @ North Central College (1/25/17)

Final Score
NCC 63, Millikin 44

Game Summary
The outcome of this one was never really in doubt as the Cardinals (10-8, 4-5) started the game on an 11-0 run as the Big Blue (3-15, 1-8) missed their first nine shots. The Cardinals continued to press the advantage, building a 20 point lead with about six minutes to play in the first half, and it took just over 17 minutes before the Big Blue hit double figures as the Cardinals took a 32-12 lead into the locker room. Millikin made some second half adjustments and was able to keep the margin around that mark for a few minutes before making a mini run to narrow the gap to 14 points with 11 minutes left. But the Cardinals answered with a three to retake the momentum and pushed the lead as high as 28 with about three minutes left, at which point both teams emptied their benches, and Millikin's end of the bench guys were able to trim the deficit.

Key Stats
  • NCC: Outrebounded Millikin 50-28. When I was going through the starting lineups, I noticed that Millikin's guards were a little undersized, though their forwards had decent height. But they were completely outmatched on the glass, as the Cardinals held a 31-11 edge at halftime. Everyone got in on the action for North Central, with only three players failing to notch at least one board.
  • Alex Sorenson (NCC): 9-18 FG (0-2 3PT), 1-3 FT; 19 pts, 12 reb (4 off), 2 blk, 2 stl. I mentioned on Tuesday that Sorenson has been struggling a bit this year, but having a game to feast on an inferior opponent inside is a nice cure-all. Sorenson was easily able to get to the basket for some open looks, and he dominated the glass at both ends. It's a good stat booster, and hopefully a confidence booster going forward.
  • Matt Cappelletti (NCC): 2-8 FG (1-4 3PT); 5 pts, 14 reb (3 off), 2 ast. Cappelletti has gotten a lot of run since Connor Raridon's hand injury, and Todd Raridon rewarded his freshman with a starting role. Last night snapped a two game double-double streak, but it is the third straight game Cappelletti has notched double-digit rebounds. In a year that has been pretty disappointing in terms of team success, Cappelletti has been a bright spot for the Cardinals.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • @ North Park 96 (14-4, 7-2), Illinois Wesleyan 86 (12-6, 4-5)
  • @ Augustana 87 (15-3, 8-1), Elmhurst 76 (6-12, 2-7)
  • Carthage 69 (12-6, 5-4), @ Carroll 60 (10-8, 5-4),
  • BYE: Wheaton (8-9, 4-4)
  • (WBK): @ Carthage 106 (9-8, 4-5), NCC 95 (10-8, 4-5)
Final Thoughts
The Cardinals needed this one. After dropping five of their last six going back to the Stevens Point game, they needed something to try and get their confidence back and momentum going their way. Facing the last place team in the conference in your building is a good way to do that, and the Cardinals took advantage. They took their foot off the gas a little bit in the second half, but stepped on it again when they needed to. They're still a game out of a tournament berth, but there's still plenty of time.

I think last night had to have been the quickest college basketball game I've ever worked. The officials who worked the game let the players play, which kind of frustrated Sorenson, who picked up two early fouls in kind of ticky tack fashion while he was also looking for some calls that he didn't get. But it allowed for a 35 minute first half as neither team reached the bonus. Both did in the second half, but just barely. All told, we were done by 8:30. It was fantastic.

The Cardinals will try to keep their momentum rolling on Saturday as they continue their three game home stand by welcoming Wheaton College to Gregory Arena. It's a crucial game for both teams as they fight for a tournament spot, and it's Wheaton. That's also not counting the preceding women's game where the Cardinals are also fighting for their tournament lives as well as an end to a long drought.

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

A Second Run Through the Gauntlet

This is a feature I've run almost annually since I started Confessions of a Sportscaster, but it's the first year with nine teams. I think that means we're getting this started a few days earlier than we have been. Of course, I'm also writing this a couple days after we got through the first CCIW runthrough.

CCIW play is a double round robin, so every team in the conference plays everyone else twice: once at home and once on the road. There were a few quirks this season where some teams have played five games at home or on the road in conference, but for the most part most teams have played four at home and four on the road. The rest of the way, the sites flip. So with that in mind, let's have a look at the CCIW standings and how North Central looks going into the second half.


Friday, January 20, 2017

2017 NFL Conference Championship Preview

We're down to the final four, and elite quarterbacks are the story in the NFL Playoffs.

It's conference championship weekend, and I'm trying to repress memories of what happened the last time my Packers made it this far. Fortunately, it's a different opponent and a different year, where anything can happen. On the other side, a pair of quarterbacks who have run this rodeo before return, as the two of them combined with the recently retired Peyton Manning have been to all but one of the last like 15 Super Bowls. For a league that claims to be all about parity, the AFC seems to run counter to that.

So without further ado, let's look at the two games coming up on Sunday.


Thursday, January 19, 2017

Game Notes: (WBK) Carthage College @ North Central College (1/18/17)

Final Score
NCC 87, Carthage 82

Game Summary
This was another competitive game, but the Cardinals (10-6, 4-3) had early control in this one as they led 14-6 five and a half minutes in thanks to domination in the paint. But the Lady Reds (8-7, 3-4) stayed with it and took their first lead with two minutes to play at 18-17, and added a couple free throws before the end of the quarter. The second quarter saw a fair amount of back and forth, with the Lady Reds leading by as many as six early before the teams started swapping leads. Carthage started to get a little separation late in the frame though, and took a 45-37 lead into the break. The Cardinals opened the second half guns blazing, hitting a couple threes, but Carthage had an answer to push the lead to nine. North Central responded with a 7-2 mini run to pull back within two, and eventually tied the game and grabbed the lead at the free throw line. Carthage answered with a three, but the Cardinals hit back to back triples to grab a four point lead, then added a pair of free throws before a Carthage basket cut the lead back to 65-61 going into the final frame. The Lady Reds wasted no time tying the game in the fourth, then the teams started swapping leads again before Carthage tied the game again at 79. The Cardinals hit four straight free throws, the Lady Reds got a three to make it a one point game again, but that was it, as the Cardinals answered with a layup, and iced the game with a pair of free throws with five seconds left.

Key Stats
  • Jamie Cuny (NCC): 4-10 FG (2-8 3PT), 6-8 FT; 16 pts, 8 reb (2 off), 2 ast, 6 blk, 2 stl. Jamie made her presence felt early, as she had three blocks in the first few minutes of the contest. It forced Carthage to start to back off a little bit, but she still made an impact at that end as well as on the glass. She was crucial during the second half on offense though, getting a couple layups to go as well as hitting a couple key threes, and she iced the game at the stripe.
  • Jessica Dahle (NCC): 4-10 FG (4-9 3PT), 2-2 FT; 14 pts, 1 reb. Dahle had a career high last night, which was key with no one else really having their threes fall (see below). She's got a pretty bright future in The System given her shooting, and Michelle Roof raved about her after the game last night.
  • Maddie Kaelber (CTG): 6-18 FG (4-14 3PT); 16 pts, 4 reb, 5 ast, 3 stl. The freshman would be a good fit in The System, considering she shot the most threes out of anybody. She looked pretty good, even though the shooting numbers don't really bear that out. She had plenty of open looks, and shot when she had them. Between her and Autumn Kalis, the Lady Reds shot their way back into the game after the early deficit and that kept them afloat.
North Central System Watch
  • Carthage Turnovers: 24. This number is a little low for what you'd like against The System, but it worked well enough. The Lady Reds were able to break the press multiple times for easy layups (they had 22 fast break points), but as the game wore on they started to get a little sloppy. The Cardinals forced 14 steals, paced by four from Anita Sterling. while Siarra O'Neill, Jamie Cuny, and Paula Zerante each notched two. North Central also forced a ten second backcourt call in the third quarter.
  • NCC 3PT: 9-49 (18.4%). Ye gods. It's been a struggle the last three times out for the Cardinals, as the box score shows a bunch of players with oh-fers. The most notable among the Cardinals last night were Caroline Heimerdinger (0-5), Michaela Reedy (0-4), Maya Walls (0-4), and Anita Sterling (0-4). The only redeeming part of last night was the third quarter, when the team heated up a little bit and shot 5-15 from beyond the arc, but they were ice cold in the fourth quarter, going 1-11. That they got away with it is something of a miracle.
  • NCC Charges Drawn: 0. Paula Zerante should have gotten one, but was called for a block instead. I don't think she was in the circle, and she was set, so I think there was a bad call that cost her. Carthage did commit an illegal screen in the second half that was pretty obvious from where I was sitting. The Carthage fans were not pleased, but a number of people after the game commented that they enjoyed my call of it (other than threes, opposing offensive fouls are my favorite thing to announce, because they're the best defensive plays you can make. Also, the charge needs to be kept as an official stat.)
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
Final Thoughts
I posited over on D3Boards that last night's game was a critical one, and it was: both teams were tied for fifth in the CCIW and needed a win to at least go into the second half of CCIW play with four wins to have a shot at the tournament. For the Cardinals to pick up a win like this, on a night where the threes weren't falling, especially against what I understand might be the team's biggest conference rival (something about a fight several years ago when I was an undergrad... I missed that game.) The win puts the Cardinals in fifth place, just a game out of a CCIW Tournament spot.

The Cardinals are on the road for a pair now, traveling to Elmhurst on Saturday for a key game that would put the Cardinals in fourth with a win, and then Carthage gets a shot at revenge next Wednesday up in Kenosha, where North Central hasn't won since 2006. That will be a good tuneup with Wheaton coming to town a week from Saturday to decide the fate of the universe.

Friday, January 13, 2017

2017 NFL Divisional Preview

We're fast approaching another weekend, and the NFL playoffs are in full swing. Just eight teams remain in the quest for the Lombardi Trophy, and the four best teams from this past season are back in action this weekend.

All in all, last weekend was relatively uneventful unless you're one of the idiots who's blowing the whole Giants-On-The-Boat thing out of proportion. Them spending the off day with their families back home or whatever probably wouldn't have changed their defense getting torched by Aaron Rodgers in the final 35 minutes of the game.

So with that out of the way, let's take a look at the four games on tap this weekend.


Thursday, January 12, 2017

Game Notes: (WBK) Augustana College @ North Central College (1/11/17)

Final Score
Augustana 83, NCC 76

Game Summary
This one started out okay as the Cardinals (9-6, 3-3) were able to get some early points, but the Vikings (11-3, 4-1) went on a 12-0 run to open up a ten point lead, which they would carry into the second quarter. The Vikings kept up the pace, leading by as many as 13 before taking a 47-35 lead into the locker room. North Central trailed by 17 early in the third quarter, but rallied to cut the lead to seven, but the Vikings closed the quarter on a 12-2 run to take a 67-50 lead into the final quarter. They kept it up early in the fourth and pushed the lead to 20. Just a couple minutes into the frame though, the Cardinals woke up and caught fire, exploding for a 19-2 run to cut the deficit to three. But the Vikings had a sustained possession that resulted in a pair of free throws, and North Central ran out of steam at the end.

Key Stats
  • Kaycee Kallenberger (AUG): 6-16 FG (0-1 3PT), 2-3 FT; 14 pts, 18 reb (7 off), 7 blk, 1 stl. I think the three attempted by Kallenberger was a typo in the stats, but whatever. Kallenberger should have done better from the floor, as she blew quite a few clean looks at layups, but she more than made up for it on the glass and on the defensive end. Her seven blocks are the most I can remember against the Cardinals in my tenure.
  • NCC: 16-27 FT (59.3%). This has been an alarming trend all year, and it continued at a bad time for the Cardinals. North Central hit just five of 12 free throws in the third quarter when they were making a mini run, and even just hitting three or four of those misses makes it a totally different ball game. The lesson, as always: make your damn free throws.
  • Shannon Ryan (NCC): 6-6 FG (3-3 3PT), 3-6 FT; 18 pts, 1 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 4 stl. Ryan had a monster game and did a decent Mayson Whipple impersonation. She had confidence getting to the rim at times, and was hitting her threes when a lot of other players were struggling. She'll need to continue to step up the rest of the way.
North Central System Watch
  • Augie Turnovers: 32. I thought for sure the way the game was going, NCC would end up with more turnovers than Augustana, but that was not the case. Augie had its struggles against North Central's press despite running one themselves, as the Cardinals picked up 16 steals led by four apiece from Ryan and Diamond Calicott.
  • NCC 3PT: 13-42 (31.0%). To be fair, this number is a little misleading. It was an awful night early on as the Cardinals were 7-30 after three quarters, and just 5-21 at the half. This is the second straight game of some struggles, though that fourth quarter rally skewed the numbers a little bit.
  • NCC Charges Drawn: 2+. I didn't do a great job of keeping track, but Anita Sterling drew two just in the fourth quarter alone. I think she may have had at least one more earlier on as well. Augie committed a number of offensive fouls, with Kallenberger picking up two on the offensive end in the first half.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • @ Wheaton 73 (10-3, 4-1), Carroll 43 (1-12, 1-4)
  • @ Illinois Wesleyan 93 (9-5, 4-1), North Park 54 (8-7, 1-5)
  • Elmhurst 87 (11-3, 3-2), @ Millikin 57 (7-8, 1-5)
  • BYE: Carthage (8-5, 3-2)
  • (MBK): @ Carroll 72 (8-6, 3-2), NCC 65 (8-7, 2-4)
Final Thoughts
This one hurt. I figured going in that we would be in for a barn burner, but it didn't end up happening with the Cardinals' struggles from the line and beyond the arc. This was a winnable game, especially given that five minute stretch where the Cardinals exploded. It got the crowd into it, and I haven't heard Merner that loud for a long time. The video above doesn't do it justice. It also doesn't do justice to how that 19-2 run nearly killed me. I don't know how much more I could have turned it up had the Cardinals tied the game.

Big picture wise, this one hurt. The Cardinals are still in the mix at 3-3 in the CCIW, but that's only good for sixth place now. All three losses have come from that three-headed monster atop the standings, and two of those losses have come at home. But all three losses were by single digits, Wesleyan has had some injury issues, Wheaton might not be as good as they've been in years past, and this Augie team can be beat. That's what made last night so tough. Coach Roof said after the game what I mentioned already: free throws and threes. If they do a little better there, last night's game would have been the stuff of legend. It still is to a degree, but the result wasn't what I would have liked.

The Cardinals are on a bye this weekend, which will be good for them to rest up a little bit and prepare, because their next game is a key one at home against Carthage. The Lady Reds are a half game up on the Cardinals pending Saturday's result, and with only the top four teams making the CCIW Tournament, it's a critical matchup for standings position even though there are still 10 games left.

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Championship

It's Tuesday morning, the National Championship Game in the College Football Playoff saw a titan toppled at the last second, but in an alternate reality, the Death to the BCS Playoffs reaches its conclusion tonight as well.

About a month ago, at the conclusion of the regular season, I took the ten conference "champions" (in quotations because Penn State was banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs, and I cannot tell you how much schadenfreude I got from them losing to USC) and six deserving at large teams entered a tournament to decide a national champion slightly differently from what the College Football Playoff did.

Our first round saw a few upsets, including reality's national champion getting bounced by a #14 seed. The quarterfinals and then the semifinals saw the home teams advance, however, so we got a #1 versus #2 matchup in this year's title game.

Like in prior years, the Death to the BCS Championship Game is played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, so the weather in Pasadena at kickoff time is taken into account. I decided to just simulate this title game as a best of three, with the "clinching" game serving as the official result. Depth chart information for each team will be taken from Don Best's handicapping website. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's crown a champion.


Monday, January 9, 2017

Game Notes: (MBK) North Park University @ North Central College (1/7/17)

Final Score
NPU 76, NCC 73

Game Summary
The Cardinals (8-6, 2-3) got off to a good start inside, and went outside a little bit as well to jump out to an early 8-4 lead. The Vikings (10-2, 3-2) hung around however and eventually turned it into a game of traded leads before hitting back to back threes to take a five point lead. The Cardinals would trail by as many as seven in the first half and would close the gap to just one with about a minute left, but a foul on a three led to three free throws and a 39-35 North Park lead going into the break. In the second half the Vikings caught fire from beyond the arc and were able to build a couple of ten point leads, and with 10:42 left made it a 14 point game. An 8-2 Cardinal run narrowed the gap to eight, and North Central kept up the pressure from there and would tie the game at 71 with just over two minutes to play. North Park answered with a second chance bucket, North Central tied it again with a minute to go, and a foul with 27 seconds to go led to a pair of free throws to make it 75-73. The Cardinals blew a wide open layup, forced a foul, and the Vikings only hit one to make it a three point game with 16 ticks left. North Central committed an offensive foul, intentionally fouled, saw North Park miss both free throws, and called a time out, but the desperation three fell short both on time and on distance as the Vikings escaped Gregory Arena with a win.

Key Stats
  • Colin Lake (NPU): 5-11 FG (3-7 3PT), 5-5 FT; 18 pts, 1 reb, 2 ast, 2 stl. As a team, North Park was excellent from beyond the arc, but Lake led the effort with a trio of triples and those three free throws right at the end of the first half to make a one point game a four point game. Lake also had a pair of steals to help key North Park forcing the Cardinals into mistakes.
  • Jordan Robinson (NPU): 4-5 FG (1-2 3PT), 5-8 FT; 14 pts, 6 reb (2 off), 4 ast, 2 stl. The early favorite for CCIW Player of the Year did not disappoint, though he only played 27 minutes, getting pulled in the first half with two fouls. These numbers don't scream "Player of the Year" caliber, but Erwin Henry did a good job limiting him, though he still got his. He hit what turned out to be the game-winning free throws, even taking into account that he missed three of them in the final seconds that nearly caused him to wear goat horns.
  • Alex Sorenson (NCC): 10-16 FG (1-3 3PT), 2-4 FT; 23 pts, 11 reb (4 off), 2 ast, 1 blk. North Park is a smaller team, so getting Sorenson going was a key in this game, and he got the Cardinals off to that hot start. He was almost unstoppable in the paint, but he missed that wide open layup on the same called play that tied the game at 73. It ruined an otherwise excellent night for the preseason All-American.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • @ Carroll 66 (7-6, 2-2), Millikin 49 (2-11, 0-4)
  • @ Carthage 75 (10-3, 4-1), Elmhurst 67 (5-8, 1-3)
  • @ Illinois Wesleyan 84 (11-3, 3-2), Wheaton 75 (6-7, 2-2)
  • BYE: Augustana (10-3, 3-1)
Final Thoughts
This one hurt. North Park is one of the better teams in the conference, and they showed why with a gutsy road win. I didn't even mention North Park's Juwan Henry, who went 7-16 from the floor for 17 points, four assists, and three steals, and hit his usual bevy of tough layups and step back jumpers. Dude is the most talented offensive player I've seen in my time working Division III basketball. I've also been hard on the Vikings, him and Jordan Robinson in particular for their demeanors the past two years, but I have nothing to nit pick about this year. Both were gentlemen on Saturday, so maybe they've finally matured, and that's part of why North Park is such a good team this year.

I definitely think the Cardinals miss Connor Raridon. Guys like Tommy Koth and Matt Cappelletti, who have seen some extended time of late, especially the latter, are good rotation pieces, but it's hard to replace Connor's production. He was still in a cast on Saturday, and I don't know anything further about his prognosis, but the Cardinals need to start winning games and stay afloat for when he returns.

The Cardinals embark on a three game road trip with a bye in between, starting with their first game against Carroll in a quarter century up in Waukesha on Wednesday night. The Pioneers have adjusted fairly well to the CCIW, sitting at 2-2 so far, but for the Cardinals this is as close to a "must-win" game as you can get without it actually being "must-win."

Game Notes: (WBK) North Park University @ North Central College (1/7/17)

Final Score
NCC 88, NPU 87

Game Summary
Early on, it looked like the Cardinals (9-5, 3-2) were going to have their way in this game as they scored the game's first nine points. But the Vikings (8-6, 1-4) shot their way back into the contest from beyond the arc, though early foul trouble got the Cardinals to the line early and often, which was enough to keep North Central up 27-24 after one. The Vikings stole momentum immediately in the second quarter, tying the game on their first possession, then grabbing their first lead the next time down. North Park would lead by as many as seven, but a 10-2 Cardinal run flipped the script and got NCC back in front, as they took a 45-41 lead into the locker room. North Park came out strong in the third quarter, and managed to overcome leads of as big as six to tie the game, but the Cardinals had an answer every time, and would go into the fourth quarter up 68-64 after a late North Park three. Back to back Cardinal threes early in the fourth gave North Central an eight point lead, but a 7-0 Viking run made it a one point game. North Park would tie the game at 80, and then again at 85, but both times the Cardinals answered with a huge three, and after a layup with 52 seconds to go, it was a one point game. The Cardianls weren't able to get a bucket, and the Vikings had 20 seconds to win the game. A missed jumper was tipped out of bounds by the Cardinals with 7.8 left, allowing for one final attempt, but it was blocked, and North Central was able to run out the clock.

Key Stats
  • NPU: 13-36 3PT (36.1%). Usually against The System you don't see a ton of threes taken, but North Park has some good shooters on their team. Liz Rehberger, after going off for 42 last year, only scored 14 but went 4-8 from deep, while freshman Emmy Gryna hit five of 13 from beyond the arc. This kept North Park in the game.
  • NCC: 24-35 FT (68.6%). I've been taking note of late about North Central's free throw shooting; they've been struggling for much of the year, but this was a key for the Cardinals' victory tonight. North Park committed nine fouls in the opening quarter alone, and the Cardinals were able to take advantage of the opportunities for free points. This is crucial going forward.
  • Jamie Cuny (NCC): 2-6 FG (2-5 3PT); 6 pts, 4 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 5 blk. Jamie's been battling recurring injuries to her shoulder for much of the season, which is probably why she didn't start on Saturday. But she didn't look the part of an injured player; she made an impact on defense early on, but it was her clutch play late that sealed the deal. She hit a three to make it 83-80 North Central, then hit what ended up being the game-winner inside of two minutes. And to top it all off, she had the key block of Shaylee Sloan with time running out to seal the victory.
North Central System Watch
  • NPU Turnovers: 28. North Park had the predictable troubles with the press, though most of their turnovers came from North Central's 20 steals. Paula Zerante had four, Diamond Calicott picked up three, and five Cardinals each notched two. The Cardinals also forced a backcourt violation that I motioned for for a second or two at the table before the trailing ref made the call... but in hindsight, we may have gotten away with it. Oh well, it makes up for a five minute stoppage for a shot clock reset on a ball that clearly hit the rim.
  • NCC 3PT: 10-46 (21.7%). Usually when there's a shooting night like this where seemingly everything was rimming out, you'd expect a North Central loss. But they hit threes when they needed to, and got enough of an effort at the line and in the paint from players like Natali Dimitrova to overcome the rough night and get the win.
  • NCC Charges Drawn: 1. Anita Sterling was back at it, drawing one in the early going. Paula Zerante tried to draw one in the final minute but didn't get the call, possibly due to a lack of contact.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • @ Carroll 75 (1-11, 1-3), Millikin 73 (7-6, 1-4)
  • Elmhurst 59 (10-3, 2-2), @ Carthage 56 (8-5, 3-2)
  • @ Illinois Wesleyan 66 (8-5, 3-1), Wheaton 65 (9-3, 3-1)
  • BYE: Augustana (10-3, 3-1)
Final Thoughts
I was nervous about this game going into it. North Park insiders noted a struggling Viking team, but that wasn't the team I saw come into Merner on Saturday. North Park played this road game about as well as you can play a road game, and just came up short. Meanwhile for the Cardinals, it was a great home win and their third straight in CCIW play. After that tough 0-2 start with five point losses to the preseason favorites, the Cardinals have taken advantage of the teams they're supposed to, and they're right in the thick of the race.

This was a huge win especially in light of the fact that North Central was less than 100 percent. Siarra O'Neill did not dress for this one, and Mayson Whipple is out for the rest of the year after suffering an injury in the Roosevelt Classic a week and a half ago. Fortunately, players like Paula Zerante and Caroline Heimerdinger stepped up and filled her shoes. Zerante took over Mayson's point guard spot on the Hero Line, and played very well considering she was in foul trouble pretty much the whole night.

North Central has another tough test on Wednesday as they welcome in Augustana. The Vikings are undergoing a resurgence under head coach Mark Beinborn, who has instituted an up-tempo offense that has the Vikings second in the CCIW in scoring. We're going to be in for a barn burner, and possibly the second game this season where the combined scoring record gets broken, but it's also a crucial game between CCIW Tournament contenders.

Friday, January 6, 2017

2017 NFL Wild Card Preview

For some reason, I've been getting a ton of hits lately on my 2015 Wild Card post. I guess I hit the sweet spot on SEO-related stuff without even meaning to, because most of those hits have come in the past few months. Whatever the case, we're onto the playoffs for the 2016 season, and I need to get a new post up.

In years past, I have also done an awards post, but I opted to skip that this year given the timing of everything and my lack of really paying super close attention to the NFL this year (contrary to my finally getting a winning record in the Pigskin Pick 'Em this season). But this is something I can't pass up.

12 teams have survived the past four months, and it's time to take a look at the road to Houston for Super Bowl LI.


Thursday, January 5, 2017

Game Notes (MBK): Augustana College @ North Central College (1/4/17)

Final Score
Augustana 82, NCC 71

Game Summary
This was a tough one as the Cardinals (8-5, 2-2) couldn't buy a basket in the early going and falling behind 12-4. The Vikings (10-3, 3-1) had an answer for every perceived Cardinal push, and would lead by as many as 11 points as the half progressed. But the Cardinals finally made a bit of a sustained run, scoring seven straight at one point to pull within three, but Augustana had an answer again and pushed the lead back to eight before taking a 42-37 lead into the locker room. NCC scored almost immediately to kick off the second half to get back within three, but Augie answered with a three a minute or so later and would push the lead back up to nine. Again the Cardinals pulled back within three, but another 7-0 Viking run pushed the lead back to 10. The margin stayed in that 7-10 point range, but the Cardinals would get no closer than within six, and the Vikings would lead by as many as 12 before Grey Giovanine called off the dogs with under a minute to go.


Key Stats
  • Chrishawn Orange (AUG): 3-12 FG (2-5 3PT), 9-10 FT; 17 pts, 3 reb, 2 ast, 2 stl. Overall, not the best night from the floor for Orange (who as I recall played really well in this matchup last year), but he hit a couple of key threes to fend off Cardinal comeback attempts, and he was magnificent at the free throw line. All in all, a pretty good night.
  • Pierson Wofford (AUG): 4-5 FG (1-1 3PT), 2-2 FT; 11 pts, 12 reb (5 off), 1 ast. I kind of remembered Wofford having a decent game, but it wasn't until I looked at the box that I realized he actually played really well, notching the game's only double-double. Those five offensive rebounds were killer, and with Augie scoring 17 second chance points in this one, those went a long way towards giving Augie the victory.
  • Erwin Henry (NCC): 4-8 FG (0-2 3PT), 5-6 FT; 13 pts, 5 reb (2 off). Erwin had to sit out much of the first half due to foul trouble, but gained some ground in the second half, helping key one of North Central's major runs to trim Augustana's lead by putting home layups and getting to the line. It was just too little, too late, and Henry's four turnovers, including one very careless one prompted by way too much dribbling, offset a little bit of his production.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • @ Wheaton 78 (6-6, 2-1), Carroll 71 (6-6, 1-2)
  • @ Illinois Wesleyan 73 (10-3, 2-2), Millikin 64 (2-10, 0-2)
  • Carthage 82 (9-3, 3-1), @ North Park 76 (9-2, 2-2),
  • BYE: Elmhurst (5-7, 1-2)
  • (WBK): NCC 117 (8-5, 2-2), @ Carroll 86 (0-11, 0-3)
Grey Giovanine Jacket Watch
This is by far my favorite non game-related function with my NCC Game Notes series. If you're unfamiliar with the CCIW or Division III basketball, Grey Giovanine is a hell of a basketball coach. He is also... kind of a head case. Non-Augie people are kind of tired of his shtick, because of the way he works officials, but the fun part with him is watching for when his suit jacket comes off. It often comes off quickly, but that's when you know the game has truly begun.
I made that Twitter poll in advance of last night's game just for giggles, but Coach Giovanine made me wait. Given NCC's struggles, he was relatively composed until later in the half. He removed his jacket with 5:42 left on the clock in the first half. I didn't even get to see it; he just came over by the scorer's table and the jacket was off. Oh well, I got a Mountain Dew out of it.

Final Thoughts
I really want to complain about the officiating, because it was not very good, but it wouldn't do any good. NCC was called for 13 first half fouls which prompted early bench time for Alex Sorenson, who had two, and Jack Bronec also had to sit late with two fouls, and Matt Cappelletti picked up three in the first half. It led to a 17-10 free throw advantage for the Vikings, but considering the Cardinals couldn't buy a basket early in the game, I can't blame the officials for this one. Augustana earned this victory, and those first few minutes where they jumped out to that 12-4 lead were the key.

Big picture-wise, a loss to Augie, even at home, is understandable, but really hurts the Cardinals' cause as we move along in the season. Their underwhelming non-conference performance put a lot of pressure on the Cardinals to play well in CCIW play, and two home losses, even to the top two teams in the standings, does not bode well. The Cardinals need to regroup and get ready for Saturday, because things don't get easier with early CCIW Player of the Year favorite Jordan Robinson and North Park coming to town.

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Finale

Now that I'm back at work and have a chance to fully look over this, I wanted to wrap up the entire 2016 regular season with regards to our picks against the spread.

Week 17 was a final battle for first place, with everybody all within range of each other. And I have to tip my cap: Logan, who led by one game going into Sunday, was the only person to finish the week above .500, going 2-1 on hero picks and continued his dominance in minority picks to cement first place in his first running on Pigskin Pick 'Em. We even discussed his gutsy hero picks for the weeks, and he admitted he knew he was taking a risk with it. But it was a risk that paid off. He finished at 40 percent for the season on hero picks, but it was his dominance in minority games (games where and one other person picked a certain team), going 21-12, that propelled him to victory.

My dad and I only differed on three games, two of which I took, so he was unable to force the tie. Adam, meanwhile, did text me before the games started that he was taking all underdogs because clearly he's lost it. However, he screwed up on ESPN again, taking the Steelers instead of the Browns. Because he was up front with me about messing that up and had told me he was going all points this past week, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Unfortunately for him, that's only good enough for third place, as we split what ended up being our ten disputed games.

It's too bad, because he dominated the hero picks. He went rogue 31 times, 11 more than our second place man in Grant. He won 17 of those games, 10 more than our second place person (Grant again). His conversion rate on those was only a few tenths of a percentage point ahead of me, but I only went hero 11 times. Adam's struggles in minority (25-29, the only person below .500) and majority (24-24, worst in the group) hurt his cause.

Finally, the number that jumps out at me: we suck at consensus picks. We were unanimous 53 times this season, but were only successful 26 times, only a 49 percent success rate. Nonetheless, the difference between first place and last place was only nine games, and the worst record was only four games below .500. That has to count for something.

So once again, I want to thank Logan and Grant for joining this group endeavor this season for the first time. It was nice to get a few more people involved in this one. I also want to thank my dad for filling in as the guest picker this past week in a pinch. And finally, I want to thank Adam for being my constant foil, for initially creating the spreadsheet that I updated every week to track how we picked in relation to each other, and for taking all of my "Traitor!" jokes in stride. While I still miss him being up here, I look forward to renewing the rivalry again in September!

Final Records
Logan: 135-121 (10-6 last week)
Lucas: 131-125 (7-9 last week)
Adam: 128-128 (7-9 last week)
Scott: 127-129 (6-10 last week)
Grant: 126-130 (7-9 last week)

Sunday, January 1, 2017

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Semifinals

Happy New Year! It's time to get 2017 started right: with another round of the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

The first round a couple weeks ago saw a couple upsets, including a second straight 14-3 upset. Last week, however, was all chalk. That first round upset does mean we don't have a 2-3 game this week, but all four home teams last week took care of business, one in a double overtime thriller.

With these games falling on a Saturday, I was able to set these up as one afternoon game and one evening game. They shouldn't conflict with each other unless the early game goes to overtime... which we can't entirely rule out. But we have a pair of good matchups with a trip to Pasadena for the national championship game on the line.

So to determine who will meet virtually at the Rose Bowl, I am simulating both semifinal matchups as a best of three, with the "clinching" game serving as the official result. Home field advantage goes to our top two seeds, with actual weather from those cities at game time taken into account. Depth chart information for each team will be taken from Don Best's handicapping website. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!