Thursday, December 29, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 17

The fifth season of picking NFL games against the spread all comes down to this. One week. 16 games. The coalition separated by just six games.

Adam went insane last week, making his picks purely based on his fantasy championships. He did all right from what I understand, though he had one opponent whose team went bonkers and he went into Monday night needing Golden Tate to have something like 15 catches for 350 yards and three touchdowns to mount the miracle comeback. But on here, his insanity paid off as he managed to take six of our 11 disputed games and pick up one of the games he's lost in recent weeks back. This includes yet another discrepancy between ESPN and Confessions of a Sportscaster where Adam picked the wrong team on ESPN. He actually has one more point than ESPN says he does, which narrows the gap.

This puts him in a tie for third place with my dad, three games back of me. And after spending the first month or two of the season spotting the rest of the coalition a cushion, I've caught fire in recent weeks, and Logan's lead has dropped to one game. It will all come down to these final 16 games. If you want a breakdown of how we've all picked in relation to each other, you can view a spreadsheet of that here.

Now, Adam is on his way to Dallas with his family [insert "Traitor!" video here]. As such, he was unable to get me his picks this week, which I totally understand. I was able to scramble reinforcements for this final week, thankfully. I tried to get Logan to fill in, but he was unable to, so my dad graciously stepped in to take his place and join me for this final round. He had this to say about doing so:
Note to Adam - I'm happy to fill in, only because I'm off from work this week and have the time. You are not Bledsoe to my Brady or Romo to my Prescott. The starting job is still yours.
Well, I guess it's good we don't have a quarterback picker controversy. As for this week, I must be my father's son, because we only disagree on three of the final 16 games. Sorry Dad, that means the best you can do is tie me.

To my fellow competitors: it has been a fun season, and an honor to compete with you all. Good luck!

Monday, December 26, 2016

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Quarterfinals

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas! As we close out 2016, I have one final college football related post to write out for the calendar year.

Last week saw the opening round of this year's Death to the BCS Playoffs, which was mostly chalk, with a couple exceptions, including the second straight year of a 14 seed knocking off the 3 seed. But now, the road gets tougher.

With the holiday, I ended up moving this week's games up to Friday so they wouldn't conflict with the NFL, and this also allows the players to get back home for Christmas after the fact. After all, these kids are students first.

So like in the last round, home field advantage goes to the higher seeded team. Weather at kickoff time is taken into account, and I try to adjust teams' offensive depth charts based on injury data taken from Don Best's handicapping website. These games are simulated as a best-of-three, with the "clinching" game serving as the official result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!

Thursday, December 22, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 16

We've got just two weeks left in this NFL season, and the playoff picture is clearing up. The standings of our consortium, however, are far less clear.

One thing that is clear, however, is that my hot streak continues. Adam went into desperation mode last week, and he did all right, but I still took five of our eight disputed games to build a four game lead on him and pull to within three of the group lead. If you want a look at a breakdown of how we've all been picking in relation to each other, you can view that here.

Last week I'd also mentioned that we had a goof up on ESPN where Adam picked contrary to what he is on record here as picking. He did it again this past week, but fortunately, it went the opposite direction: he picked wrong on ESPN but was correct on here, so he gets an extra point. This makes up for the one he had subtracted on here from the week before, so his ESPN total is now once again in line with what he's supposed to have.

Adam is back from Dallas for the holiday weekend, and he's once again in desperation mode. From his email with his picks:
I may have gone from first to worst in the Pick 'Em, but I am sitting pretty in 3, yes 3, fantasy football super bowls. Projected to win 2, and close in the 3rd. So I am going to pick this week based on which team I want to do well (or not) based on my fantasy football players (or my opponents').
Okay then. This week we disagree on a whopping 11 games out of the 16 being played. We'll see if I can keep a grip on the lead as Adam lays all his chips on his fantasy teams. From all of us here at Confessions of a Sportscaster, we wish you a Merry Christmas!

Monday, December 19, 2016

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: First Round


For the fifth season, a college football playoff is playing out here on Confessions of a Sportscaster!

Defending College Football Playoff and (two-time defending) Death to the BCS Playoffs Champion Alabama is our top seed this season. This sort of thing has been par for the course in the history of this tournament: favorites to win the national championship have tended to win this tournament. Of course, we've had some weird things happen. In 2013, Stanford would lose the Rose Bowl to Michigan State, but in the Death to the BCS Playoffs, the third-seeded Cardinal would win the title while the Spartans were on the wrong end of a 5-12 upset. 2014 had a few first round upsets, but chalk got rocked the rest of the way instead of the chaos of reality. Last year had our first real Cinderella story as 14th-seeded MAC champ Bowling Green pulled a pair of upsets before the Tide struck the midnight bell en route to another title.

So how much chalk are we destined to see this year? Will we end up with the same Final Four as the committee created? Or will someone sneak their way in?

To find out, we're going the only way we can really do this: simulation. But we're not simulating these games at neutral sites. Higher seeds have been granted home field advantage this week and each of the next two weeks en route to the title game that gets played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena because where else? Why not play college football's biggest game on the sport's grandest stage? Forget Glendale; the Grandaddy of Them All has to have this honor.

So to determine the teams fighting for this privilege, we're going to take that home field advantage for each of the eight games and take weather as accurately as possible from real conditions and factor that into the simulations. In an attempt to make sure injured players aren't having an impact, I'm using injury data from Don Best's handicapping website to adjust depth charts accordingly. I'm going to simulate each game as a best of three in an attempt to factor out luck, with the "clinching" game serving as the official result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Without further ado, let's get to the football!

Saturday, December 17, 2016

Game Notes: Robert Morris University @ North Central College (12/17/16)

Final Score
Robert Morris 77, NCC 70

Game Summary
It was a subpar game for the Cardinals (6-3) as they struggled to get anything going for about three or four minutes. The Eagles (9-4) led 6-3 early before the Cardinals got a 7-0 run going to take control, but the Eagles were right back in it and took control of the game. Robert Morris would lead by as many as seven with about two minutes before halftime, but the Cardinals scored eight unanswered points to take the lead, but the Eagles grabbed it right back to take a 34-33 lead into the break. North Central came out flat to start the second half as Robert Morris opened the first three minutes on a 12-2 run to take firm control of this one. They pushed the lead as high as 15 a couple minutes later before the Cardinals finally woke up. They cut the lead to as low as eight over the next three minutes, but the Eagles hit a pair of threes to ultimately end the Cardinal threat. They led by as many as 17 before the Cardinals chipped away in garbage time.


Key Stats
  • Darius Paul (RMU): 7-10 FG (1-1 3PT), 5-6 FT; 20 pts, 10 reb (4 off). I figured going into this one that we would have a good battle between Paul and Alex Sorenson, and Paul clearly won the war. He was able to get to the basket with relative ease and did a good job on the glass. He was also a solid defender with his length down low.
  • Erwin Henry (NCC): 11-20 FG (1-3 3PT); 23 pts, 5 reb (1 off), 2 ast. Don't let this stat line fool you; Henry had a good game overall, but most of his points came late when the game was effectively over. He got a few easy layups in the final minute to pad his stats, and seemed to be one of the few who cared in this game. He was one of the guys who helped bring North Central back while it was still a game, but he committed a dumb loose ball foul, his fourth, that forced him out of the game.
  • Jack Bronec (NCC): 3-4 FG, 2-2 FT; 8 pts, 9 reb (3 off), 1 stl. Jack was a key for me coming into the year as someone who was supposed to show a lot of promise, and as a key piece off the bench to relieve Alex Sorenson. He did a phenomenal job of that tonight as one of the few guys who seemed to really care, as he did a great job on the boards, and showed some promise offensively (though his miss was pretty ugly, and was a makable shot). That one nit aside, he played very well.
Final Thoughts
I don't know why, but this team is struggling. Granted, they played without Connor Raridon, who has a hand injury and will miss a significant chunk of time, but I don't know that Raridon would have made a difference. The Cardinals were a bipolar team today; they had stretches where they played to their potential, and other times where they looked lackadaisical. I've heard secondhand talk about D-Term at North Central being a cause, and maybe there's something to it.

If you look at the minutes, Jagger Anderson sat for a big chunk of the second half after some lazy defense, and Alex Sorenson only played 24 minutes, possibly because he also looked out of it. It made for some good minutes for guys like Bronec and Matt Cappelletti, who is going to get some significant playing time with Raridon out.

North Central closes out the calendar year on the road, as they play a tournament in Fort Lauderdale next week, then have a week off before heading up to Stevens Point. After that, we resume CCIW play. Hopefully the Cardinals have their act together for Augustana and North Park, two tough tests for when we resume.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 15

Huh. That went well.

Week 14 is in the books, Week 15 is upon us, and Adam is on his way to Dallas to take on his transfer at work. I will miss him dearly, but thankfully this feature will live on. I enjoy this picking games against the spread thing too much to let it go, and I think Adam has fun with it too. And it's not like he won't be back up here at some point.

But this past week I gave him the going away gift of a good, old-fashioned butt whooping as I took seven of our eight disputed games to move ahead of him into third place. The standings on ESPN are now out of whack, and I'm surprised it took until Week 14 for there to be a goof up. Adam picked the Cardinals over the Dolphins on our Week 14 post, but took the Dolphins on ESPN by accident. I double checked precedent, and by rule, the standings on Confessions of a Sportscaster overrule those on ESPN, so in actuality I have a two game lead on him. He has one more point on ESPN than he should, but it doesn't impact the order of the standings this week.

Logan remains in first place thanks to his early success in "minority" picks, where he and only one other person correctly picked a game, but he had a down week in that department. He made up for it elsewhere though to remain in first place. If you want a full breakdown of our picks by who has made them in relation to everyone else, you can view that breakdown here. My thanks go to Adam for coming up with this idea last year.

I also want to do a shameless plug before I get into the picks for the week. This weekend is also the opening round of the Death to the BCS Playoffs, which should be exciting. It's not too late to get your predictions in and see how you think the simulator will end up working.

This week, Adam went into full panic mode. Given the flip in the standings, he wanted another shakeup and so his daughter Addison helped. This week Addy (and Adam by proxy) and I disagree on eight games out of the 16. Let's see if the lead here changes hands again or if I can maintain the control that I have just gained.

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Announcing, Insider Information, and "Wakeyleaks"

Photo by Marc Lebryk (USA TODAY Sports)
If you're a play by play man, color commentator, or other announcer for a sports team, let's face it: you've got a pretty awesome job. You get paid to watch sports, and in a lot of instances you get a look at a team that most people can only dream of.

Which is why the story out of Wake Forest is just so bizarre. Yesterday the news broke of an investigation into leaked game planning information for the Demon Deacons' football team pinned the release of insider information on the team's radio voice Tommy Elrod. As a background, Elrod played at Wake Forest, then coached there for a number of years. But in 2014 when a new head coach came aboard, he wasn't retained, and instead moved to the broadcast booth.

So what's the motivation here? Money and revenge are the two theories on the table. I don't know how common people with inside access are bribed for this sort of information or if so, how much money would typically be offered. Revenge seems more likely; you lose a job for seemingly no reason other than you aren't a guy known by the new boss, it's not hard to imagine you'd want to get back at him. But leaking information to opponents is unheard of.

Needless to say, Elrod has been fired. I wouldn't be surprised if he's effectively blacklisted from working in college football ever again considering his actions. I hope for his sake his revenge was worth it.

That's what's so puzzling to me. I've got an in at North Central for both the men's and women's basketball teams. Especially on the women's side: Michelle Roof has been very gracious with me about allowing me access to the program. Obviously I don't set foot in the locker room or anything like that, but I've got an open invitation to practices, and I've been a guest at the last three postseason banquets. She's mentioned some things that I'm sure aren't supposed to be public knowledge, and so I do my best to not mention a lot of those things on here or elsewhere online. I know I'm in a favored position, and I'm not going to do anything to jeopardize that.

And even if I had done something like that, what good does revenge by leaking inside information do? It makes me look bad, you could argue it makes the programs that take advantage of it look bad, and you get a whole scandal like what "Wakeyleaks" has turned into, even though the name is fantastic. The lesson to be learned here is that when you have a privileged position, don't do anything to jeopardize it. And if you get snubbed, revenge is probably not the best answer.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 14

We have just four weeks and 64 games to go. I need to get my butt in gear here.

I'm back in the basement after a subpar Week 13. Fortunately for me, Adam and I ended up splitting our disputed games evenly for the second straight week, but I've fallen back down into a tie for last place. Logan remains in first place in our group, holding a four game lead over Adam. Much of this is thanks to his dominance in minority games (games where he and one other person picked a team). You can view a full breakdown of those picks here.

Now that we're back to a full 16 game slate, I have to really break out if I want to avoid last place. This week, Adam and I disagree on eight games. Let's get to it!

Monday, December 5, 2016

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Official Bracket

Ladies and gentlemen, it has all come down to this.

14 weeks and hundreds of games have narrowed down the 128 teams in college football. The ten conferences have crowned their champions. All that remains is to take them, and six deserving at large teams, and put them into a bracket to determine our national champion.

This is the system designed by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan in their classic depicted here: a more equitable college football playoff where everyone gets an opportunity to prove they belong. We also add to the excitement and enhance the regular season by giving home field advantage to the higher seeds for the first three rounds.

In their system, a selection committee still decided the field. I don't have those resources at my disposal, so I instead take a number of metrics and use these to help me in my decision making process: rankings of Non Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), and computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). I organically try to combine all of these to build the fairest playoff bracket that I can.

And so, without further ado, here is your 2016 Death to the BCS Playoff field, seeded from 1-16.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 14

I've got a lot to catch up on.

This was Championship Weekend, with eight conference title games and a de facto title game being played, while two conferences wrapped up their regular seasons. This leaves me with one final batch of Playoff Points to calculate.

Most teams' numbers will end up remaining the same compared to last week; because not every conference has a title game I don't calculate conference championship games in Playoff Points. This means no receiving points for the victory, and no update to the victors' win totals or losers' loss totals. Some of these games may boost teams' scores based on early season matchups though, which is why I have to run the numbers one final time.

If you want one final reminder of how this works, my season introduction post has a primer on this metric. Let's check the stats one final time!


Game Notes: (MBK) Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (12/3/16)

Final Score
NCC 84, IWU 75

Game Summary
This was a game that took a little while to really get going, and while the Cardinals (4-1, 1-0) were able to open the scoring and take an early lead, the Titans (5-1, 0-1) started hitting jumpers to grab the lead and control of this one. With foul trouble plaguing the Cardinals, the Titans were able to build a nine point lead with about five and a half minutes to play. But the Cardinals would not be denied, embarking on a 9-2 run to close the gap and even took the lead late in the half before a three pointer gave the Titans a 35-33 advantage heading to the locker room. The Titans returned to the floor guns blazing, pushing the lead back up to seven a couple times and maintaining control before the Cardinals finally tied the game back up a little over six minutes in. A quick two point lead a minute later was immediately wiped out on a three, and a bit of a back and forth ensued. The Titans seemed poised to control the ending with a three with 4:24 to play, but a conventional three point play sparked an 8-0 Cardinal run, and North Central was able to put the game away from there.
(skip ahead to about the 2:40:00 mark for the men's game)

Key Stats
  • Alex Sorenson (NCC): 9-21 FG (2-7 3PT), 5-6 FT; 25 pts, 5 reb (2 off), 1 stl. This was a pretty quiet 25 for Sorenson, but in terms of minutes it was an efficient 25 points. Sorenson was plagued by bulls*** officiating foul trouble and had to sit for a big chunk of the first half, as well as significant time in the second half, but he hit some key buckets when he did see the floor to help keep the Cardinals in the game.
  • Erwin Henry (NCC): 4-7 FG (1-4 3PT), 8-8 FT; 17 pts, 13 reb (1 off), 5 ast, 1 blk. Erwin definitely rebounds bigger than his size and has shown such this season, but I was flabbergasted when I heard his stat line after the game. 13 rebounds and five assists is an incredible floor game. He hit a few key shots to keep the Cardinals around early in the game, then hit eight straight free throws, including a pair of technical free throws, to ice the game.
  • Trevor Seibring (IWU): 6-13 FG, 4-7 FT; 16 pts, 6 reb (2 off). Seibring is Wesleyan's best player, and was the guy to stop if the Cardinals wanted to win. The Titans got some key contributions from a few of their guards to help their early control in this one, but North Central did a pretty good job overall of containing Seibring, though he did show his skills more than once. He also flopped to draw an offensive foul on Sorenson, which was his second of the game and forced Todd Raridon to pull him out.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • Wheaton 82 (4-2, 1-0), @ Elmhurst 69 (2-4, 0-1)
  • North Park 87 (5-0, 1-0), @ Augustana 78 (5-2, 0-1)
  • @ Carthage 70 (4-2, 1-0), Millikin 59 (0-6, 0-1)
  • BYE: Carroll (4-1, 0-0)
Final Thoughts
I usually don't like to talk about this a ton, especially after a win, but the officiating in this game was awful. Both head coaches were barking at the referees all night, and while I can't recall any specific "NCC got away with that one" calls, the Titans benefited from this as well. I already mentioned the Seibring flop, but Sorenson's third foul was also an iffy one. The team argued about his fourth as well because he was "in the circle" and vertical, but he had also jumped, and I didn't really have any issue with that foul call. Fans on both sides were upset with how the game was called, so maybe it was officiated "fairly," albeit poorly.

Either way, this was a huge win for North Central after a tough loss to Platteville on Tuesday. The slow-developing offense didn't kill them in this one, and Jack Bronec played pretty well in foul trouble relief of Sorenson. Jagger Anderson also came off the bench in this one, but he responded very well to the role. It wasn't North Central's best game, but it was enough. NCC closes out their five game homestand on Wednesday as they welcome in Carthage. I will not be at the mic on Wednesday due to another commitment, but you can catch the game on nctv17.com at 7pm and see the Cardinals back in action.

Game Notes: (WBK) Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (12/3/16)

Final Score
IWU 118, NCC 113 (OT)

Game Summary
This was another instant classic to add to the rivalry's illustrious history, as an early 5-0 run by the Cardinals (3-2, 0-1) gave them a 5-2 lead, but the Titans (4-3, 1-0) responded with six straight, and the seesaw battle was on. The Cardinals led by as many as seven late in the first quarter, but only carried a 24-23 lead into the second quarter. The Cardinals hit three straight threes to give themselves a six point lead, but the Titans would not go away, building a five point lead of their own. North Central stormed back and built a six point lead, but blew a pair of layups in the closing seconds that kept it a 57-51 lead at the break. The Cardinals led for most of the third quarter, going up by as many as eight points, but the Titans exploded for a 13-1 run to flip the script, though the Cardinals kept it close, only trailing 81-79 after three. The Titans remained just out of reach for most of the quarter, possessing an answer for every Cardinal basket and they would lead by as many as six before the Cardinals finally pushed over the hump and were the first to the century mark. The Titans bounced back again, taking a pair of two point leads in the final minute-plus, but the Cardinals forced overtime on a layup with two seconds to go. The Titans opened the scoring with a three almost a minute into the extra session and would lead by as many as five before the Cardinals came back to tie the game at 113 with 1:18 to play. But the Titans got their game-winning bucket with a minute to play, and the Cardinals were unable to mount a final comeback.

Key Stats
  • NCC 2nd Half: 13-23 FT (56.5%). I talked to Michelle Roof after the game briefly, and we lamented letting this one get away. The Cardinals got a little sloppy in the second half, but this stat was the one that killed me. In fairness, the Titans missed seven free throws of their own in that half, but with the Cardinals controlling the game for much of the third quarter and being unable to take advantage of free opportunities, this is a loss that might linger a little bit.
  • Molly McGraw (IWU): 13-29 FG (4-8 3PT), 7-9 FT; 37 pts, 6 reb (2 off), 4 ast, 3 blk, 3 stl. McGraw is probably the Titans' best player, and she showed why Saturday night. Usually with The System it's forwards who do most of the scoring damage (and to be fair, this did happen too), but once in a while a guard will have the game of her life against the Cardinals. McGraw had hers, hitting the three to get the Titans started in overtime after scoring 20 points in the second half. The fact that she also filled the rest of the stat sheet speaks to how great a player she is.
  • Mayson Whipple (NCC): 12-22 FG (3-9 3PT), 2-4 FT; 29 pts, 5 reb (2 off), 8 ast. Mayson all but keyed North Central's comeback in this one, as she went into attack mode as the game went on. Her eight assists are a season high, and mark the sixth time in the past two seasons she's reached at least eight in a single game. Mayson also hit the clutch floater to force overtime.
North Central System Watch
  • IWU Turnovers: 28. The Titans are one of the most disciplined teams in the country, so their turnover numbers against The System are going to be a little bit lower than most teams the Cardinals face. But North Central forced 21 of those turnovers in the first 20 minutes, so credit Mia Smith for making adjustments at halftime and to her players for executing as the game went on. Of the 28 assists, 19 of those came off Cardinal steals, led by four for Paula Zerante, while four other players registered two apiece.
  • NCC 3PT: 14-51 (27.5%). This is about the normal pace North Central ends up on, though it ended up about a point and half lower than the season mark to date. North Central had stretches of relatively hot shooting, but not like the five in a row they hit to put Piedmont away a couple weeks ago.
  • NCC Charges Drawn: 2. Anita Sterling picked up one late in the game, but someone else drew an offensive foul earlier on, and I didn't quite catch who. But it was good to see Anita get back to her usual self.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • Wheaton 71 (5-1, 1-0), @ Elmhurst 53 (6-1, 0-1)
  • @ Carthage 96 (4-3, 1-0), Millikin 80 (4-2, 0-1)
  • @ Augustana 88 (6-0, 1-0), North Park 85 (3-2, 0-1)
  • UW-Oshkosh 84, @ Carroll 51 (0-7, 0-0)
Final Thoughts
I mentioned it already, but this one hurt. North Central always seems to match up well with Illinois Wesleyan, as the Cardinals had won four of the last six matchups going into Saturday, and the prior few games at Merner against the team in green had been phenomenal. This one gets added to the lore, but with the wrong outcome. Hopefully though, going blow for blow for 45 minutes with one of the country's best teams will bode well going forward.


Over on the Wesleyan side, my best wishes go out to guard Gabrielle Holness, who suffered an injury to her right leg in the second quarter. She had to be helped back to the bench and was on crutches the rest of the evening. I made a point to go over and wish her well before I left for the evening, and she seemed to be in decent spirits (though in fairness, a win probably helps). It's my sincere hope that she'll be able to see the court again before season's end.


Back to North Central, things don't get any easier, as they head up Naper Boulevard to take on Wheaton College on Wednesday and try to snap Wheaton's current win streak in the rivalry at 14.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 13

Thanksgiving was largely kind to the coalition, as we chug along to the conclusion of the third quarter of our season. We like our group, Logan is our leader in the clubhouse, and we have a lot of football left to play.

I continue to be fascinated by the breakdown of our group's picks so far. Adam has had tremendous success in hero picks, but he finds himself three games out of the lead at this stage. Last week he had Aiden pick for him, and the kid came through pretty well: of our record 12 disputed games, we split those evenly down the middle. Aiden also went hero five times, winning three games. You should be very proud of your son, Adam.

We get our final byes this week, which makes sense because the number of games played is odd. I also had taken a game out of Grant's picks last week because he forgot to pick the Thursday night game in Week 11. Logan did that with the Detroit-Minnesota game last week, but the rest of us were split between the two teams. So I took my dad's advice and counted those as losses.

This week, Adam and I disagree on only six games out of the 15 being played. Let's see if I can climb out of this fourth place hole.