2015 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 5

It's Week 5 of the college football season, and this week, we're starting to see conference play begin in earnest. It's already been heavy in some conferences, but leagues like the Big Ten have yet to begin. It has helped boost them towards the top of the rankings so far.

At this point, other than some small shuffling here and there the rankings will likely stay around the same from here until the second to last week of the season, when the coward Nick Saban and a few other SEC schools show how weak they are only to see the conference's score get boosted the following week with the handful of interconference intrastate rivalry games.

Below are the rankings with Week 5 scores, cumulative averages for the season, and last week's placings. I also take a look at the out of conference games that made changes to the scores.

2015 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 4

I didn't get to watch any of the college football action over the weekend, as I spent the day out in DeKalb and the evening at the United Center in fantastic seats to see the Hawks beat the Blues. I spent part of my early Sunday though catching up on the goings-on from Saturday and updating some numbers.

Only a handful of undefeated teams suffered their first loss this past weekend, as we went from 34 down to 29. However, with more numbers in the system, we're starting to see a larger growth in Playoff Points from last week.

If you need a refresher on how this system works, you can view my Week 1 post on Playoff Points for the basics. Let's take a look at the week.

2015 NBA Tournament of Champions: Semifinals

We're well into the football season, but today, I'm taking another break from football posting to bring you a basketball update.

Back in July, I started this major project in a redo of 2013's Tournament of Champions. 64 NBA teams entered a contest to find the best team of all time. We have narrowed the field down to four teams after two and a half months. Today, we see the results of the semifinals and find out who will play for all the marbles.

Still standing are our top two seeds, the 2015 Golden State Warriors and the 1986 Boston Celtics, who each went 13-1 in Group Play. They each have home court in this round, but have stiff competition to face: the 1996 and 1991 Chicago Bulls, respectively, stand in their way to a chalk-based championship round.

As with the previous three rounds, both of these series are a best-of-seven that will be played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format. Home court advantage goes to the higher seeded team based on place finish in Group Play, and our first tiebreaker comes into play today in the form of record in Group Play. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's set the championship stage.

2015 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 3

The coalition is back to it as we approach the start of Week 3 in the NFL!

Last week was not a good week for a lot of people, but myself especially, as my "hero" picks wound up being way off the mark. On the whole, Adam and I actually didn't end up separated by much, with him taking five of the eight disputed games. Even so, I'm now sitting in last place amongst the group, while Adam is in first.

One thing to note though, because it happens every year and I always find some way to screw something up is that on ESPN, I picked Houston over Carolina, but my blog post had Carolina winning. I therefore have one more win than ESPN says I do, which may balance out at some point, or we'll see Adam goof somewhere along the line. I don't know. It always happens at least a couple times a season.

Anyway, looking ahead, Adam and I disagree on an astounding 10 games in Week 3. I think that's a record. Let's get to the picks.

2015 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 4

It's kind of crazy to think that we're already entering our fourth week of the college football season, but here we are.

Conference play has begun in most leagues, though it has been sporadic. We're going to start to see a little bit more in the next couple weeks, but for now, there's still a pretty large chunk of scheduling being played outside of conference boundaries.

Here's a look at last week's rankings. I will touch back on the placings from last week in the rankings below for Week 4.

2015 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 3

We've gone from 51 down to 34 in just one week's time.

Three weeks of college football action are in the books, and as the regular season chugs along, resumes are being built and destroyed all at the same time. At this stage of the season, anything can still happen. That's why every week I'm adjusting the numbers to account for what happened.

Week 2's rankings saw the first gaining of any playoff points by teams, and those numbers are only going to go up as the season progresses. Now, we'll start to see more teams with points, and the ones that do are going to have a ton of them.

You can go back to Week 1's post to see specifically how the Playoff Points system works. Below are the average win totals as well as First and Second Degree Playoff Point averages by conference.

2015 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 2

The coalition didn't get scared off after one week, so we are back for Week 2 action.

Everyone got off to a 1-0 start last Thursday with the Patriots beating the Steelers 28-21 and then we had varying levels of success on Sunday before generally bombing the Monday night picks.

As for our picks in this post, Adam took four of the seven disputed games between us, good to put him in a tie for first place with my dad while I am one game back and defending champion Geoffrey Clark is three back. You can view the official standings here, or click on the Pigskin Pick 'Em link on the right side of the page.

This week, Adam and I differ on half of the games. Let's take a look at the picks for Week 2.

2015 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 3

I'm a day late due to a massive amount of rain taking up my focus yesterday. We're on to another week of College football schedules after last week saw no cancellations and thus no changes needing to be made.

A few conferences also kicked off conference play last week, with more to come this week. We also saw our first schedule-based disqualification in Boston College, who opened with two straight FCS opponents. From what I hear, it was forced because an FBS opponent cancelled some time before the season began and they couldn't find anyone else, but I'm not backing down. We'll see if this comes into play at the end of the season.

Without further ado, here's a look at the Week 3 Non Conference Schedule Strength, by conference.

2015 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 2

We're officially through two weeks of the college football season. 51 teams still remain undefeated, but there is a lot of football left to play.

Last week we didn't have any playoff points to speak of. Today, now that you have teams having played more than one game, the numbers will start to open up and I can really start to rank everyone.

So, like last week, I am going to go conference by conference and list out their win averages and average Playoff Points, both First and Second Degree. These are going to be a major factor when we really start to look into the Death to the BCS Playoff field.

2015 NBA Tournament of Champions: Quarterfinals

We take a break from several days of football talk on this solemn day to bring you some basketball updates.

Back in July, I started a massive tournament with the last 64 NBA champions to find the best of all time. We're down to eight now, with quite the stark difference from the 2013 Tournament. Only four teams that made the Quarterfinals in 2013 are back this year, with only one team that made it to at least the semis still alive: our defending champion '96 Bulls. Our biggest turn of events: the '92 Bulls, who had the tough draw in 2013 with that year's Miami Heat, have made it this far while their eliminator from 2013 is out after last round. Most interestingly though, our top two seeds in the '15 Warriors and the '86 Celtics are still alive and might be on a collision course for the championship... but obstacles remain.

I was able to catch up on the stat lines from the last round, so you can view complete Elimination Round stats on my Google Sheet. I will also update the sheet again in the aftermath of the quarterfinals.

As for the series I'm going through today: like the last couple rounds, they are best of seven played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format. Home court advantage did get complicated in this round though, with seeding based on Group Play finish still being the primary criteria, though if their seeds are the same, record in Group Play is the first tiebreaker, followed by point differential from Group Play. I set up the bracket so that the one seeds were arranged in a standard seeded bracket format: the top 1 seed would face the 8th-best 1 seed, the second best would face the seventh-best, and so on. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it.

2015 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 1

We've made it! The NFL season is here! After months of offseason moves, anticipation, unsubstantiated screams of "CHEATER!" and the tyrant Roger Goodell seeing his power trip blow up in his face, we can finally start watching games that matter.

The season kicks off tonight with the defending champs taking the field, and with it comes probably the most fun series of posts I've done since I started Confessions of a Sportscaster: the Pigskin Pick 'Em.

For the fourth straight year, I have assembled a nice group of people to pick games against the spread for the regular season. I could just post my picks on my own... but what fun would that be? For the second straight season, my friend Adam Quinn is joining me every week to post his picks on here.

Last year, Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark beat both of us, and he is back this season to defend his crown. We'll see if he can do so. This season, my dad will also be joining us. He told me he may regret it, but that's another one we'll have to see on. However, most likely Adam and I will be the only ones actually posting our picks on here, though once games go active you can check the group to see what everyone picked, and I'll update standings as the season goes on.

On a separate note, I have also joined my colleagues at UKEndZone in a straight pick 'em competition. You can view our Week 1 picks here.

So, without further ado, here are Adam's and my picks for Week 1. We disagree on seven of the first 16 games, which is fine as long as this week doesn't go like Weeks 11-16 last year. And even if it does, I intend to follow the advice of my UKEndZone editor Ollie Connolly.

@northsider89 @UKEndZone life should always be lived as a hero Lucas. Always.

— Ollie Connolly (@OllieUKEZ) September 9, 2015

2015 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 2

Everything got pushed back a day following the Ohio State-Virginia Tech game on Monday night, so today I'm looking at the Week 2 schedule for college football.

Week 1 was, unless you're a Mountain West school, a pretty good week for scheduling. A grand total of 46 schools got their one allotted cupcake out of the way, and many more schools who played tough Week 1 games will eat theirs this week in an effort to "prepare" their team for the upcoming gauntlets.

I also want to note before we dive into the Week 2 schedule that there were a couple game cancellations this week that impact the Non Conference Schedule Strength. LSU's game against McNeese State got cancelled due to a lightning storm, so they got back their one point they lost. Toledo's game started, but had to be delayed for a long stretch due to severe weather, and ultimately saw the game get cancelled and ruled a "no contest", so Toledo also got their point back. I've already made the changes on my Google Sheet and made notes about the zeroes on there.

So without further ado, let's see how those, plus this week's games, affect NCSS. For this week and every week hereafter, I will post two numbers after each conference: their weekly score and their cumulative score for the season. The rankings will be by cumulative score, but in the event of a tie (and I mean a true tie without the rounding), the higher score for the week will be the tiebreaker. I will also note for future reference: all blue zeroes on the sheet will indicate conference games.

2015 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 1

Labor Day having a game pushed this post back a day later than it normally would have been. Today, we catch up on it.

Every week, I will be doing a minimum of two college-football related posts with regards to the Death to the BCS Playoffs coming up. Last week I previewed the schedule for the opening week of the season, and today brings the other side of that coin.

I touched on this a little bit before the season, but I wanted to go on an in-depth look at how the Playoff Points system works for the playoff system. It's based on the IHSA model, though I added a degree to it. For First Degree Playoff Points, or PP1, the score is a cumulative total of the number of wins from each team a given school beat during the season. For example, a 3-9 team that beat a 6-6 team, a 1-11 team, and another 6-6 team would have 10 First Degree Playoff Points. This number will take some time to grow over the course of the season, but it will serve as a good value to see just how good a team is beyond its record.

On top of that, I also use Second Degree Playoff Points, or PP2, which is an average per win of the First Degree Playoff Points of each team beaten over the course of the season. As an example, take South Florida's 2014 season: they had four wins over an FCS team, Connecticut, Tulsa and SMU. The FCS team netted no PP1, UConn had nine PP1, Tulsa four, and SMU two. That's a sum of 15 points, divided by the four wins gives USF a PP2 of 3.75.

Every week I'm going to run through the Playoff Points totals as an average for each conference, though I will link to my spreadsheet where I'm keeping track of all of this. I also want to note again so the example isn't an exception: wins over FCS teams are worth no Playoff Points whatsoever, and will be represented int he spreadsheet by a red zero.

Hopefully that's an explanation that makes sense. Either way, let's take a look at the scores for this week. For each conference, I will share the average win total, PP1 and PP2.

2015 AFC East Preview

Happy Labor Day! I hope you're enjoying your day off as we approach the start of the 2015 NFL season!

Today is the final day of NFL previewing, since with this I'll have a blurb on all 32 teams. If you want to go more in-depth for previews or see some different takes, my friends over at UKEndZone have done a bigger preview of every division in the past week or so as well. I'm also extending one final invitation to join in on picking games against the spread as part of my ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group. Adam Quinn and I will be back on Thursday with our Week 1 picks, and we'll be competing against my dad and Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark this season. This should be fun.

And now, let's get our final division previewed.

AFC East

Common opponents on schedule: AFC South, NFC East

1. New England Patriots
2014: 12-4 (1st), won Super Bowl XLIX
I'm just going to start this preview by saying this: Roger Goodell is a tyrant who must be removed from office. Fortunately for the Patriots, Tom Brady stuck to his guns and a judge saw through the NFL's lies and slander and Brady will play all 16 games. This means certain doom, because if anyone is going to use the last few months to fuel his competitive fire, it's Brady. I see the pretty good ground game of LaGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray providing balance while Brady rains hellfire down upon opposing defenses with a good receiving corps and Gronk being Gronk. Defensively, this unit took a step back after losing Brandon Browner and Darelle Revis in the secondary, though Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler is probably ready to step up, though Bradley Fletcher on the other end concerns me. The rest of the unit is, overall, pretty solid. While this year is the best chance for the rest of the division to try and overthrow New England, there's too much firepower here, and you don't want to mess with a pissed off Brady.
2015 Prediction: 11-5

2. Miami Dolphins
2014: 8-8 (3rd), missed playoffs
Of all the teams in the division best poised to topple New England, I think it has to be Miami. Ryan Tannehill has taken steps forward each of the last few years, but he's overpaid with his new contract. He does have good weapons though with Greg Jennings along to complement Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry. Lamar Miller is also poised for a breakout year, so the Dolphins will be able to put points on the board. Their defense, which was middle of the pack last year, will definitely improve solely with the addition of Ndamukong Suh. I think that alone has them in the conversation for the playoffs and the division title.
2015 Prediction: 9-7

3. Buffalo Bills
2014: 9-7 (2nd), missed playoffs
Injuries abound with this Buffalo team going into the year, but they boast probably the best defense in the division, largely thanks to that defensive line. Their back seven isn't bad either, and they're going to be a thorn in the side of every team they face especially with Rex Ryan in charge. So why do I have them finishing third in the division? They're heavily banged up on offense, including with Lesean McCoy up in the air for Week 1. The receiving corps is very talented with Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin, as well as Charles Clay at tight end. The big question, like with every Rex team, is at quarterback. Tyrod Taylor was named the starter last week over guys like Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel, and Taylor has a total of 35 NFL passes on his resume. I think the inexperience will come back to bite the Bills a little bit.
2015 Prediction: 8-8

4. New York Jets
2014: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
Ah, the Jets... Ryan Fitzpatrick will start the year under center while Geno Smith recovers from getting punched in the jaw by IK Enemkpali. Both have some decent targets, including getting Brandon Marshall from the Bears in a deal they will love until Marshall decides to be a loudmouth idiot again. The ground game will help a little bit, but the fun part will be on defense. Darelle Revis returned to his original team and, along with Antonio Cromartie, will help lock down opposing passing attacks. The defense overall will be good thanks to new head coach Todd Bowles, but there's still just too much dysfunction here. They'll improve on their 2014 mark, but not by much.
2015 Prediction: 5-11

So with the entire NFL complete (I finished the NFC yesterday), here's your look at the AFC Playoff picture:

1. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
2. Denver Broncos (12-4)
3. New England Patriots (11-5)
4. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
5. Houston Texans (10-6)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

Thus complete my NFL predictions for the 2015 season: some of which will be right, others of which will be not even close.

The next couple days, I will go back to college football with a look at results from Week 1 and how they relate to Playoff Points, then on Wednesday I will look at the Week 2 schedule from a non conference standpoint. Finally, on Thursday I will go back to the NFL as Adam and I (and possibly some special guests) bring you our Week 1 NFL picks.

Good luck to your teams this season!

2015 NFC East Preview

A week from today, we will be celebrating the full-on return of the NFL with 13 games over the course of the day. Until then, we still have a couple more previews to do.

We're down to just the eastern divisions remaining over the next couple days. Meanwhile, if you want to see some more in-depth previews for the NFL, my colleagues over at UKEndZone are doing a fantastic job getting you ready for the 2015 campaign. If you want to try to play expert and pick some NFL results, Adam Quinn is back to join me in a weekly post picking NFL games, and you can compete against us as well as my dad and Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger/defending champion in our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em Group.

Let's get to work on today's preview.

NFC East

Common opponents on schedule: NFC South, AFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2014: 10-6 (2nd), missed playoffs
This past offseason was a crazy one in Philly, with Chip Kelly assuming roster construction duties and proceeding to turn the Eagles into some sort of Oregon East and upheaving the roster (while Shady McCoy stupidly played the race card out of bitterness for getting moved, never mind the fact that DeMarco Murray was the guy who replaced him). They also traded for Sam Bradford at quarterback, which might help given that a change of scenery might not hurt him, but odds are something else will. There's enough talent in the backfield, though I'm not sold on the receiving corps just because of Kelly's retooling of it all. I'm not 100 percent sure what to make of the defense, but I think there are enough pieces here to make it work, plus Bradley Fletcher is no longer in the secondary to get torched repeatedly.
2015 Prediction: 10-6

2. New York Giants
2014: 6-10 (3rd), missed playoffs
I tinkered around with this one, originally not having a lot of faith in the Giants, but I have to believe Eli Manning will be better in 2015 than he was in 2014, especially with a full year of Odell Beckham, Jr. They also have James Jones to play a complementary role, and with an experienced, competent quarterback throwing him the ball he'll be okay. I like their running game as well. Defensively, they have a good secondary with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamura manning the corners, but the big question mark is the defensive line. They've constantly reloaded it in the past few years, leading to their two Super Bowls, but I just don't think there's enough there this year to allow for another one. They'll be right in the mix though.
2015 Prediction: 9-7

3. Dallas Cowboys
2014: 12-4 (1st), lost in NFC Divisional Game
After years of being in NFL purgatory, the Cowboys finally had a great run to the playoffs, getting by the wuss Jim Caldwell's Lions only to drop a heartbreaker to the Packers at Lambeau (good times). Their offense will be pretty good again with Romo, Bryant and Witten, their offensive line is superb, but the question mark will be the running game. DeMarco Murray left for Philly in the offseason, and Dallas is relying on Darren McFadden to be the new #1, though we'll definitely see more of Lance Dunbar and Joseph Randle this year. It won't be anywhere near the same though. The Cowboys' strong run game in 2014 helped mask a fairly weak defense, one that is okay this year but will be without corner Orlando Scandrick due to a knee injury. The Cowboys will be okay this year... but it's not a playoff year. Back to purgatory they go.
2015 Prediction: 8-8

4. Washington Redskins
2014: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
I don't even know where to start here. The Redskins have been a mess recently, with Kirk Cousins being named the starter for 2015 over RG3. Cousins will have some weapons, with Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon to throw to while Alfred Morris is a decent back. I do not trust this defense however, other than maybe the mandatory four pick game from Deangelo Hall against the Bears for old time's sake. There's just too much dysfunction in Landover, Maryland for my taste. It'll be a long year here.
2015 Prediction: 4-12

Since I've done all the NFC teams now, here's my predicted playoff picture from the conference:

1. Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
2. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
4. Carolina Panthers (9-7)
5. Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
6. New Orleans Saints (9-7)

We have just one division remaining: the AFC East. I'll be back with that tomorrow. Enjoy the rest of your Labor Day weekend!

2015 AFC North Preview

It's Day 6 of going through the National Football League, division by division, and previewing the upcoming season. We're just a few days away now from the official start while the college season kicks into high gear today. I'll have more on the college game early this coming week once the NFL previews are complete.

If you want to read up on more details regarding the 2015 NFL season, my colleagues over at UKEndZone are running a series of previews going division by division as I am, and they're all brilliant football minds. If you want to try your hand at being a brilliant football mind, you can join myself, Adam Quinn, my dad, and Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark in picking NFL games against the spread through ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em.

With that said, let's get to today's preview.

AFC North

Common opponents on schedule: AFC West, NFC West

1. Baltimore Ravens
2014: 10-6 (3rd), lost in AFC Divisional Game
A physical team and one who is always in the mix come December and January will be back atop the division this year. Joe Flacco lost one of his top weapons in Torrey Smith, but now that the whole Ray Rice fiasco is behind the team (I think), they can focus on the field. Justin Forsett will be a solid #1 back, and Steve Smith is still around to be a thorn in defenses' sides and stick up for his teammates when opponents are being thugs. Defensively, losing Haloti Ngata hurts a little bit, but their defense is still solid front to back. Terrell Suggs is still there, and brings an intimidating presence to lead the unit. It's going to be a dogfight, but I like the Ravens' chances to win the division.
2015 Prediction: 10-6

2. Pittsburgh Steelers
2014: 11-5 (1st), lost in AFC Wild Card Game
It's going to be weird watching the Steelers play without Troy Polamalu in the defensive backfield after he retired during the offseason. It's a bit of a blow to the defense, but this is still a solid unit, though not quite as good as Baltimore's in my opinion. They balance that out though with the best offense in the division. Le'Veon Bell will sit out the first two games of the season due to a suspension, but when he comes back he'll have DeAngelo Williams to complement him, making for a pretty fearsome rushing attack. Ben Roethlisberger, meanwhile, remains one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and he has an elite #1 receiver in Antonio Brown. They'll score some points and be right in the mix, but I'm thinking they just miss out on a second straight division title.
2015 Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card

3. Cincinnati Bengals
2014: 10-5-1 (2nd), lost in AFC Wild Card Game
The league has pretty much figured out the Bengals at this point: solid in the regular season, but will disappear in the playoffs. I still question Andy Dalton's big money contract, as he's a decent quarterback, but not a great one. A.J. Green has slowed down from his rookie year, and other than the Geo Bernard/Jeremy Hill tandem in the backfield, there's not much here offensively. The defense, however, is really good, with a solid front four and strong linebacking corps. Even the secondary isn't bad. I just think Dalton will make a few too many mistakes and just barely keep the Bengals out of the postseason, which probably means the end of the Marvin Lewis Era.
2015 Prediction: 9-7

4. Cleveland Browns
2014: 7-9 (4th), missed playoffs
Dwyane Bowe has left quarterback purgatory and comes to... quarterback hell. Josh McCown is nothing more than a journeyman backup to keep the seat warm for Johnny Manziel, who I continue to think is overrated. I'm not sold on their running game led by Isaiah Crowell either, though the offensive line is solid. This defense is pretty good though, with a really good 1-2 punch at cornerback with Joe Haden and Tramon Williams as well as a linebacking corps that can do some damage. Problem is, in this division, they aren't going to be able to keep up. It will be a long year in Cleveland.
2015 Prediction: 5-11

We have just two more divisions left. Tomorrow I will take a peek at the media darling NFC East.

2015 NFC North Preview

Happy Friday! We're on to the second half of Confessions of a Sportscaster's NFL predictions for the 2015 season. This is the one that's most relevant to me, as I'm from Chicago and a Packers fan (which, if you're a regular reader of COAS, you already know and are probably shaking your head at). Given much of the demographic is around here just based on who I know, this is probably the preview you've most been looking forward to as well.

If you want to read more in-depth previews for the NFL, my friends over at UKEndZone are continuing their preview series, and are doing a phenomenal job of it. Meanwhile, if you want to get involved with picking NFL games, you can join my ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group and try to beat me and Adam, who will be writing up picks with me every week again, as well as my dad and defending champion/Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark.

So with the plugs out of the way, let's take a look at the division.

NFC North

Common opponents on schedule: NFC West, AFC West

1. Green Bay Packers
2014: 12-4 (1st), lost in NFC Championship Game
There's already a little bit of panic given the way the injury bug has bitten the Packers so far. However, as long as Aaron Rodgers remains healthy, this is the team to beat in the North. He still has several good weapons in Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and Eddie Lacy, so I don't think things will be a problem. The loss of Tramon Williams hurts the secondary a little bit, but there are good pieces around to fill the gap, and hopefully Clay Matthews can follow up last year with another full season. All in all, this team is one of the top Super Bowl contenders even without Nelson. I just hope there isn't a hangover from the last trip to Seattle.
2015 Prediction: 11-5

2. Minnesota Vikings
2014: 7-9 (3rd), missed playoffs
I wrote in-depth about the Vikings for UKEndZone back in June, and I maintain most of those claims two and a half months later. I think the Vikings found their franchise quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, and he will benefit from having Adrian Peterson in the backfield with him for all of 2015. While I'm not particularly sold on his receiving corps still, the natural progression plus the mere presence of Peterson will upgrade the Minnesota offense. The thing is, their defense is pretty underrated. Everson Griffen leads a pretty good pass rush, and the secondary is one of the best this side of Seattle. If they can improve their run defense from a year ago, Minnesota will be right in the thick of things at the end of the season.
2015 Prediction: 9-7

3. Detroit Lions
2014: 11-5 (2nd), lost in NFC Wild Card Game
Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin is going to have his work cut out for him this season. After heading up a top-three defense in 2014, he lost the lynchpin of his defense in Ndamukong Suh as well as Nick Fairley. The Lions did replace them with Haloti Ngata, which may help. Pretty much the entire rest of the defense returns, including Stephen Tulloch who hopefully learned from his idiotic sack dance in Week 3 last year. On offense, the Lions drafted Ameer Abdullah to help Joique Bell in their continued attempts at finding a successor to Barry Sanders, and a full season from Calvin Johnson will definitely help. I think overall though, the loss of Suh will hurt them quite a bit, and Jim Caldwell is Jim Caldwell. They'll be okay, but they're not going to return to the playoffs.
2015 Prediction: 8-8

4. Chicago Bears
2014: 5-11 (4th), missed playoffs
Last season I felt bad, but I also enjoyed the dumpster fire that was the Chicago Bears. Now, they're commencing with a rebuild. Some things have changed since I wrote that at the end of July: Tim Jennings is no longer with the team, a decision that will probably hurt an already bad defense, though with new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio in the fold, they'll improve within the next year or two. Offensively though, I'm not sure what's going on. The Bears have arguably had more injury woes than Green Bay, as Alshon Jeffery and Marquess Wilson have had trouble staying on the field, and first round pick Kevin White had surgery on a stress fracture and will miss at least the first six games. This may mean trouble for Jay Cutler, who is who he is at this point: a guy with a heck of an arm, but a coach killer (this is his third head coach and fifth offensive coordinator since coming to Chicago), and isn't going anywhere any time soon. Consider it a rebuilding year for the Bears.
2015 Prediction: 5-11

I'll be back tomorrow with a look at the AFC North.

2015 AFC West Preview

We're just one week away from the start of the NFL season! I can taste it!

Today I'm officially at the halfway point of my NFL previews, as I go division by division. So far, three of my four wild card picks are in. Will my fourth come today?

If you want to read a little more in-depth previews on NFL teams, you can check out the work of my colleagues over at UKEndZone. They're also going division by division, and are doing a fantastic job. If your interest lies more with picking games against the spread, I do have that option available to you as well: you can join a group with myself and Adam Quinn, who will be picking games weekly with me in an attempt to overthrow me. He almost did last year. This year my dad and Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark (our defending champion, actually) will also be joining us, though we haven't discussed anything about him writing up picks with Adam and I. We'll see.

Let's take a look at the AFC West.

AFC West

Common opponents on schedule: AFC North, NFC North

1. Denver Broncos
2014: 12-4 (1st), lost in AFC Divisional Game
At this point, I think we can say Peyton Manning is on the downswing of his career, but his slight decline still makes him one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I'm also not sold on his supporting cast as much this year: he still has Demaryius Thomas as his top target as well as Emmanuel Sanders, but the depth that has been there the last couple years isn't there. He does have a decent running game with C.J. Anderson as well, so offensively, they'll probably be fine. They've got good pass rushers on defense still with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, and they're solid at corner with Aqib Talib and Chris Harris. I can't guarantee anything in January, but the Broncos will be there.
2015 Prediction: 12-4

2. San Diego Chargers
2014: 9-7 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
San Diego was in the mix late last season before just missing out on the postseason, but they bring back much of their talent on offense. Antonio Gates will miss the first four games to suspension, but Phillip Rivers has other targets to work with in Malcom Floyd and Keenan Allen, while there's a decent ground game with Branden Oliver and rookie Melvin Gordon as well as Danny Woodhead for pass catching. Their defense is okay, but not really notable in any way, though they'll keep the team in the hunt. I just don't think they'll have quite enough again this year, falling just short of the postseason for a second straight year.
2015 Prediction: 9-7

3. Kansas City Chiefs
2014: 9-7 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
Kansas City also did pretty well last year but also just missed the playoffs. After a first in the modern era: a season with no touchdown passes to wide receivers, that will probably change with Jeremy Maclin in town. While Alex Smith is a decent quarterback, the offense still revolves around Jamaal Charles. On defense, there's still a lot of talent here led by Tamba Hali, Justin Houston and Dontari Poe, but I'm not really sold on the secondary. This team will be okay, but not great.
2015 Prediction: 8-8

4. Oakland Raiders
2014: 3-13 (4th), missed playoffs
Ah, Oakland... We are starting to see a foundation with Derek Carr at quarterback, and now he has legitimate targets to throw to in Michael Crabtree and rookie Amari Cooper. Latavius Murray will be a decent running back, but let's remember that this is a young offense, so there will be some growing pains. The defense got a bit of an upgrade with Justin Tuck to anchor the defensive line, and Charles Woodson remains a good veteran presence, but there are just too many holes. As long as the Raiders understand they need to stay the course rebuilding and work around the pieces they have, their future might be good. Their 2015, however... not so much.
2015 Prediction: 4-12

We're halfway home. Check back tomorrow when I preview the division most relevant to me and my general area in the NFC North.

Tears of a Tyrant

Really, I think this tweet sent out by the New England Patriots this morning says it all.

pic.twitter.com/KEpFUMr5bi

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 3, 2015

I've been pretty silent on the whole DeflateGate mess since it first came out. Unfortunately, I fell victim to the NFL's media campaign to sully Brady's name with the whole "11 of 12 footballs" report that was found to be a lie by the NFL's own investigation, yet idiots continue to trot that number out as if it were gospel because why would the NFL lie? Simple: Roger Goodell is a tyrant with a huge ego who didn't want to excuse a perceived disgrace of The Shield by Brady's alleged "general awareness". He couldn't let perceived injustice go unpunished. He's the man in charge, he had to remind the league.

Problem is, everyone that doubted it in the wake of the Ray Rice fiasco now knows that Goodell has no qualms about overreaching. He thinks he's all powerful, hence the four game suspension in the first place. ESPN's Mike Greenberg had a good point about this though.

So, unlimited power does NOT mean you can just do anything you want. Justice is served.

— Mike Greenberg (@Espngreeny) September 3, 2015

If you haven't already, you should read Judge Berman's full ruling. While there's a fair amount of legalese, it's only 40 pages long and covers pretty much everything, while hitting on all the important points of the whole saga. It's important to note that the suspension was overturned because Goodell violated the CBA and refused more than one of Brady's requests for due process, not because the NFL had no evidence that Brady did anything (even though this point is absolutely true).

This is a big win for the game in general, but at this point, we still have a problem: Roger Goodell remains in office. It's clear that after this latest court loss that he has no business continuing to be the commissioner of the NFL. He continues to impose arbitrary punishments depending on how he views a player's actions for the image of the league, even if there's no evidence of anything actually happening. At the time it happened, I was all for the suspensions in New Orleans, but that situation was much like this one: the media fueled the NFL's propaganda, even if it wasn't true, and players were railroaded. The problem is, the Saints actually had a season impacted by that fiasco. The Patriots, unless Robert Kraft decides he wants to appeal the fine and loss of draft picks now, won't see an impact, at least not this season.

My final though is something of a hot take, so bear with me. The next collective bargaining agreement expires in 2020. This is a long ways away. Until that time, we're going to see more and more players going to court to overturn suspensions set by Goodell and the NFL. There are already rumors that Greg Hardy will fight his suspension, and other players will probably do the same in the future. I'm not sure I agree with that, unless it's clear, like in the Rice case, that Goodell is abusing his power again. When the CBA expires, the player's association needs to fight the disciplinary process and get independent arbitrators hearing appeals, as well as more standardized policies for discipline. If the league refuses to budge, the players should strike. While I'd hate to miss football, I think it would be worth it to get the NFL back into a system of checks and balances.

This gets me to my hot take: if, God forbid, Goodell is still in office by then and this sort of nonsense continues to take place, I think the players should demand he resign or refuse to play. It's the only way the owners would consider firing him unless sometime soon they decide the PR nightmare is too much. I have doubts that they will, so until then, we're going to keep hearing about these scandals because he is a lying tyrant.

2015 NFC West Preview

One day after a quick college football break, I'm back to previewing the NFL.

You can read a little more in-depth previewing over at UKEndZone, where Ollie Connolly and Andrew Symes are hard at work going division by division as well. In addition to that, Adam and I will be picking NFL games against the spread all season, and I would enjoy having a few extra people in on the fun. You can join our group here with a free ESPN account and see if you can best our scores (neither of us had a very successful 2014 season, so you could win). We're actually up to three people now, as my dad has decided to join the fun.

With the shameless plugs out of the way, let's get to work.

NFC West

Common opponents on schedule: NFC North, AFC North

1. Seattle Seahawks
2014: 12-4 (1st), lost Super Bowl XLIX
The best defense in the NFL reloaded once again, keeping most of its core intact (including the Legion of Boom, obviously), with really the only notable change on that end being the addition of Cary Williams to start opposite Richard Sherman at cornerback. The Seahawks also pretty heavily upgraded their offense by trading for Jimmy Graham. He gives Russell Wilson a go-to target in the passing game while Marshawn Lynch continues to be Marshawn Lynch. The NFC continues to go through Seattle.
2015 Prediction: 12-4

2. Arizona Cardinals
2014: 11-5 (2nd), lost in NFC Wild Card Game
The Cardinals rode a strong defense to contention for the NFC West for much of the season. Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu headline a secondary that isn't quite as talented as Seattle's, but is still very good. They're going to do some damage defensively again, but the question mark is on offense. Carson Palmer should be ready to go after missing a chunk of 2014, and if he's hurt, Drew Stanton is the backup, so Palmer's health is a major concern. I'm not sure what to expect on the ground out of Andre Ellington, though the Cardinals did add Chris Johnson in the offseason, and we'll have to see if he can break into the rotation. The Cardinals will be good, and Bruce Arians will have this team competing for the division title. I just think they don't quite have enough talent to surpass Seattle.
2015 Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card

3. St. Louis Rams
2014: 6-10 (4th), missed playoffs
The Rams finally parted ways with Sam Bradford after he couldn't stay on the field, and I do think Nick Foles is a bit of an upgrade. He's not going to replicate his 2013 season, especially not with this receiving corps, but he's much more likely to stay on the field than Bradford is. The defense, however, is absolutely terrifying. The Rams just keep adding talent to their defensive line, most recently signing Nick Fairley away from the Lions. With all the bodies they can throw at opposing quarterbacks, they're going to be a tough out. They still need to build their offense around Foles or whatever future quarterback they pick, but they're going to be a decent team this year.
2015 Prediction: 8-8

4. San Francisco 49ers
2014: 8-8 (3rd), missed playoffs
Has any team ever had a worse offseason than the 49ers did this past few months? Jim Harbaugh wore out his welcome and left for Ann Arbor, Chris Borland decided to hang it up, as did Justin Smith and Patrick Willis, while Ahmad Brooks is in legal trouble and Aldon Smith is no longer with the Niners after additional legal trouble. The offense will probably be decent, as the Niners signed Torrey Smith to play opposite Anquan Boldin and give the Niners a couple good wideouts, but I'm not sold overall on Kaepernick, and I don't know that Carlos Hyde and Reggie Bush can replicate the success Frank Gore has had. It's going to be a long year in the Bay Area.
2015 Prediction: 4-12

Now that we're back on schedule, I'll be back at this tomorrow with the AFC West.

2015 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 1

We've finally made it, football fans! The college season already began last weekend, and I had a decent seat at a bar to watch the end of North Dakota State-Montana (Montana got a BS pass interference call to extend their game-winning drive, but the Bison had time to stop them and failed. I don't blame the refs). That was, however, an FCS game, and they have an appropriate playoff.

The highest level has a playoff finally, though I think it still needs work. So once again, I'm building a playoff based on the system proposed by Wetzel, Passan and Peter. From now until the end of the season, every Tuesday I will be taking a look at the schedule for the upcoming week.

Photo by Mike Mulholland (MLive.com)

Every team will be given a score for their scheduled opponent every week. The scoring system can be found at the link above, but the basic gist of it is that teams get rewarded for road non-conference games or games against "power" conference foes, conference games have no impact on the score, and games against FCS opponents will lower the score. Two games on a schedule against an FCS opponent will result in disqualification from the Death to the BCS Playoffs, unless there's some sort of cancellation of a game due to weather or some other unforeseen act of God and the only way to get a 12th game is to schedule a second FCS opponent. I doubt this will happen, but it's an eventuality I'm prepared for.

Before I dive into the scores for Week 1, I also want to mention one other thing for the upcoming season: despite the NCAA's reversal of the penalties, Penn State remains banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs. I'll leave my prior thoughts on the issue as my justification for this decision, and if you don't like it, tell your school not to allow a suspected subhuman monster to remain on your campus for 10 years without a police investigation.

Let's get to the scores. As a quick explanation, I will take the average score for each conference every week and rank them 1-10 (independents will naturally have the highest NCSS, so I don't rank them). I will then also include a brief rundown of their Week 1 schedules.