Thursday, September 27, 2012

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 5

It's Week 5- you can start to see the cream of the crop rise to the top of the rankings. It's not as convoluted as we near the end of September to start ranking these college football teams for what matters for 2 more years.

I think the new non-conference ranking worked out pretty well this past week in that taking the conference's scheduling outside of itself on a team average basis instead of a cumulative basis really worked well in figuring out which teams schedule better than others. These rankings start to take less meaning now that conference play is really starting to kick in all over this week, but there will still be the occasional out of conference game that will be played that needs to be taken into account when the Death to the BCS Playoffs begin. So without further ado, here's where we stand after 5 weeks of schedule analysis.

  1. Conference-USA (6.08): Marshall has its second big school road test of the year (Purdue), with Southern Miss, UCF and SMU all getting one more big game in (Louisville, Missiouri and TCU, respectively) before they start conference play. They've also managed as a conference just 5 games against FCS competition in 5 weeks of the season. Impressive.
  2. Sun Belt (5.5): Middle Tennessee gets to be a sacrificial lamb for Georgia Tech while Louisiana-Monroe gets a decent road test in Tulane. Other than that it's all byes or conference games. The Sun Belt had 7 FCS opponents through 5 weeks with all but one coming in the first 2.
  3. MAC (5.15): This week Bowling Green hosts a cupcake while Buffalo is off to UConn. Bowling Green brings the MAC's total of cupcakes to 11 for the year, with only UMass and Ball State having the dignity to not face an FCS team yet this season.
  4. WAC (5.14): No rounding was needed to determine the MAC/WAC placement. The WAC has a really tough schedule this week though, with Idaho (UNC) and Louisiana Tech (Virginia) off to ACC country. UTSA and New Mexico State open conference play, finally putting an end to the Roadrunners' sham of a schedule so far. Tech, as the only school without a cupcake so far helps offset the average and keeping the WAC toward the upper end of the rankings.
  5. Mountain West (4.7): Hawaii, Nevada and UNLV are all on the road this week against non-conference FBS opponents. Nobody in big conferences, but still a good showing. Continuing with a trend of these conferences not having many schools without a cupcake to their name continues, as only Boise State has this distinction here.
  6. Big East (4.63): I didn't realize until I started writing this that this is the first of the "major" 6 conferences to appear in this week's rankings... which kind of proves my original hypothesis, though not completely. The mid major conferences seem to have more out of conference tilts right now, which I do think skews the rankings a tad (not to mention half the conference being off this week), but Louisville is on the road, and South Florida and Cincy are facing big conference teams. That being said, UConn is the only team without a cupcake so far.
  7. Big Ten (4.42): Another one that seems a little unfair with only Purdue facing a team out of conference, which helps explain the drop into the lower half. However a third of the conference hasn't had an FCS team on slate yet (both Michigan schools, as well as OSU and PSU). And even with those cupcakes, there have been some decent schedules (I look at Northwestern in particular).
  8. ACC (3.08): Amazing what happens when FSU finally decides to get off its butt and hit the road while Virginia Tech is off to a neutral site against Cincy. Took the ACC long enough. Every team there has a cupcake on its resume (and remember, FSU has 2).
  9. Pac-12 (3): No change from last week, as again, everyone is either off or facing other Pac-12 teams. Just over half the conference has a cupcake already faced with both Oregon schools, Stanford, USC and UCLA all avoiding that scarlet letter. Yet looking at their cumulative score they have one fewer point than the next conference down, a big reason why using averages is important.
  10. SEC (2.64): Missouri is at UCF this weekend, but that's offset by LSU needing a recovery from barely getting by Auburn in Towson. This Tigers game puts them at over half of the conference hosting an FCS team this year. To give the polls some credibility, #1 Alabama is one of the schools that hasn't yet.
  11. Big XII (2.5): These rankings have not been kind here. But when only Texas has held its head high without an FCS team in sight, there are some problems in house. This week, TCU's trip to SMU is the only game bringing points to an otherwise dismal non-conference slate this season.
Obviously with some non conference tilts left here and there, we may see more cupcakes scheduled. We have a couple months left though before these rankings really take on importance. Meanwhile in the NFL, at some point this morning Nathaniel will have our Week 4 picks on Someone Still Loves You, Alberto Riveron.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Taking Candy from a Packer

I'm typing this on my phone from the train on my way to work. Hopefully later I can go through and maybe add more imagery or detail or something. I don't know. But after last night I needed to vent. I will also freely admit that I am a little biased given my loyalties, but this was embarrassing.

For much of the night, the Green Bay-Seattle game was an excellent contest. And without the ending, it was a great game played by 2 teams who wouldn't give up. That gets lost in the chaos today: Seattle played a great football game. They gave Rodgers the Cutler treatment early and for the most part they played fantastic defense. And you have to credit Russell Wilson for putting Seattle in a position to win at the end.

I have said on here many times: the officials don't decide games, the players do, regardless of how poorly called a game was. The way Seattle played the first 30 minutes was worthy of a win, but the Packers made the necessary halftime adjustments. When Green Bay scored the go-ahead touchdown, for the half they had run probably 40 plays from scrimmage to the Seahawks' 6. 6 plays. A pair of three and outs. Dominance. They forced a turnover on downs with less than 2 minutes left after Russell Wilson moved them downfield (with some zebra help). You can say Green Bay left them too much time on the clock to score. You can say they couldn't execute on defense on that final drive. But that's where the problem lies.

Green Bay did execute on that final play. If you've listened to the analysis or watched the postgame last night and look at this close up you can see. At first I thought it was simultaneous possession. But the more you look at the play the more you realize they were wrong. Green Bay won the game. And it got taken away.

For what it's worth, I thought Mike McCarthy handled his postgame presser with as much class as one could in that situation. Had it been me I might have received the first million dollar fine in NFL history. But I love that Packer players went right to Twitter to vent. Tom Crabtree and TJ Lang were the first to get to social media and vent... Especially Lang. I like his take:
@TJLang70: F*** it NFL.. Fine me and use the money to pay the regular refs.
Most experts were saying it would take something like this to force the NFL's hand with the referees' union. I wish it wasn't my team that had to be the victim, but I'd feel bad for any team that lost like this.

The other fascinating thing to me about this game: the social media reaction as a whole. Other than the night Osama bin Laden was killed, this game seemed to make Twitter explode the most (and will probably stay so until the November elections.) But from an objective perspective, it's fascinating to see. We are a culture of immediacy. Everything that happened in the first 59:52 of that game was put on the back burner because of the final 8 seconds. It's fair because the referees decided this outcome, but at the same time it ruins what was otherwise actually a really good game.

I was pissed off last night and didn't get enough sleep. But what sleep I did get I think helped temper my anger over injustice. It's hard to, but part of me does feel bad for these replacements who are doing the best they can, but when a rule is not followed and the officials' mistake cost the team a game, we have problems. The NFL is a much faster game than the lower levels from whence these refs came. This is not to detract from D-II or D-III football because I love D-III football, but all these replacements regardless of level are having a tough time with the adjustment. Bring back the real refs. Now.

One final thought that again needs to be made. We saw based on social media how angry this has made people over a game. For a split second last night I wished harm on Golden Tate (moreso because of his blatant pushoff, not helped by the fact that he denies it) before I checked myself. Thats not what's important. This game overshadowed what should have been the top storyline from this week in Torrey Smith of the Ravens. He lost his brother early Sunday morning and with a heavy heart went out and played and had a great game in a win. All for his late brother. Recognizing our loved ones and cherishing every moment we have with them is what's most important. It's a damn shame that our eyes are drawn away from that and into a debacle that could have been and needs to be solved. Now. Before another fan base has to go through what I and millions of fellow Packer fans had to. I love the NFL. I don't want this to destroy it.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 3

The NFL season is moving pretty quickly already. We're 2 weeks into the season and we have a record 20 teams sitting at 1-1 so far. I was hoping last week I'd get to do a running diary of watching the game with Nathaniel, but laptop difficulties prevented it. Instead, go back to last week on my Twitter feed and read through some of my commentary if you want some mild amusement. We differ on 9 games, which is always a good thing to see a difference of opinion. While you can project a team's record pretty well it's not easy to pick week by week with sustained success, so I'll take a 19 win start to my year. It also put me ahead Waddle and Silvy... and the few other ESPN staff that are picking in their pool.

Anyway, below are my and Nathaniel's picks for Week 3 of the NFL season.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (+1.5)
Lucas: Panthers. When I first drafted this I picked the Giants but changed it after looking at injury reports. Let's see... missing your top running back, offensive lineman and 2 wideouts, plus needing to get the closest homeless guys off the street to play cornerback... sweet Carolina.
Nathaniel: Panthers. Every year, it seems like the Giants' defense consists of a lights-out front four and a back seven consisting of homeless people they found off the street. The trend seems to be continuing in 2012. Happy hunting, Cam.
St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears (-7.5)
Lucas: Rams. Don’t get me wrong, I think the Bears win at home, but that Bears O-line. Also Jimmy McMillan is very persuasive.
Nathaniel: Bears. The more important question, obviously, is this: WHAT DO YOU THINK JAY CUTLER'S BODY LANGUAGE WILL BE LIKE, YOU GUYS? It's a proven fact that he's going to smirk and/or roll his eyes a combined total of 2,500 times during the game whether they win or lose, so let's all just accept that and move on.
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
Lucas: Bills. Even their subpar defense should contain Brandon Weeden… right?
Nathaniel: Browns. Too much of the Bills' offense right now is revolving around C.J. Spiller averaging ten yards a carry. And hey, the Browns have been pretty competitive in their first two games (how, we'll never know). Let's give 'em a go.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. I know it’s in Dallas, but the Bucs have some good things to build off of after last week’s narrow loss. They don’t win, but they do cover.
Nathaniel: Cowboys. Will Greg Schiano order his troops to bum rush the kneeldown this week if they're down by twenty? I have a feeling we're going to find out.
Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)
Lucas: Lions. Maybe this week is the week Chris Johnson gets off his lazy butt and does something, given that Detroit isn’t great on defense. But then again, it is Jake Locker, and I would think the Stafford to Megatron connection gets back on track this week.
Nathaniel: Lions. Chris Johnson begins his impossible task of trying to improve on his 1.1 yards per carry average. $53.5 million well spent, if you were to ask me!
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Lucas: Colts. Andrew Luck is at home and playing against Blaine Gabbert and the Jags? This might be my lock of the week.
Nathaniel: Colts. Luck over Gabbert. Literally the only rationale I can think of.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+3.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. I can’t believe I’m doing this, but with Darelle Revis’ health in question, I think Miami can cover.
Nathaniel: Jets. I'm fairly certain Rex Ryan would kill himself if his defense gave up half the points the Dolphins put on the Raiders last week. Well okay, so scoring 17.5 points is technically impossible, but you catch my drift, I think.
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (+7.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Sorry, Christian Ponder. You’ve taken some good steps, but you’re going to have to be relied on to beat San Fran’s secondary since AP will likely not be much of a factor against their stout run D. Even at the Dome, I think San Fran wins by double digits.
Nathaniel: 49ers. The moment you've been waiting for all year has finally come, San Francisco: you've finally earned my respect! Congratulations! That should really mean a lot coming from someone who's 14-18 in these picks so far.
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)
Lucas: Saints. They’ve got to win sometime, and when you’re hosting arguably the worst team in the league… I’m going for this one. But I had to think about it.
Nathaniel: Saints. A get-well gift comes at just the right time for the Saints. The only silver lining for Kansas City so far this year? They somehow started even WORSE last year. Remember those 41-7 and 48-3 losses to Buffalo and Detroit? They must be taking this song too literally.
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins (-3.5)
Lucas: Bengals. The Redskins are going to sorely miss Orakpo and Carriker. This will temper the team’s expectations for this year a bit, and it hurts starting with this one as Andy Dalton and company get back on track.
Nathaniel: Redskins. If the first two games are any indicator of the way the Bengals are going play defensively this year (and now that I've written this, they probably won't), then RGIII is going to have a remarkably fun day. Even better than the day he shot all those Subway commercials, if you can imagine.
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. I think this game gets too close to take the Eagles at this line, especially since the Cardinals went into Foxboro and stole a game from the Patriots last week. Vick’s turnovers come back to bite him this time (I said the same thing last week, but still.)
Nathaniel: Eagles. Both teams are sporting MUCH-better-than-expected defenses in 2012. Unfortunately, only one of these teams is starting Kevin Kolb.
Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers (-2.5)
Lucas: Chargers. I’d go with the Falcons normally, but I think Michael Turner going over 90 miles an hour while drunk serves as a distraction this week.
Nathaniel: Falcons. It's so shocking to see the Chargers with an honest-to-God WINNING record in September that you almost have to assume that regression to the mean is going to set in some point. If my calculations are correct, then, the Falcons should win this game 77-3 and Philip Rivers is going to throw eight interceptions.
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (+1.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Houston hasn’t really been tested yet, and Peyton is looking to rebound after a rough start in Atlanta on Monday.
Nathaniel: Broncos. Did you know that the Texans and Broncos are the two teams that have allowed the fewest yards per play defensively thus far (4.1)? Now you do! Of course, the Broncos held the above-average offenses of Pittsburgh and Atlanta to that figure while the Texans feasted on the pu-pu platter of Miami and Jacksonville. Prove it against Peyton for me, Houston.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (+4.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Pittsburgh can’t seem to run the ball yet, but maybe facing the defense that allowed Reggie Bush to relive his days of getting free stuff will be a good remedy.
Nathaniel: Steelers. Gotta tell ya, they should definitely have an old-timers game featuring the stars from both great '70s teams play beforehand. I want to see how far Terry Bradshaw can still throw a football! I want to see if Mean Joe Greene still takes a liking to smashing Jim Otto's testicles! I want to see how many women 66-year-old Kenny Stabler carouses with before and after the game! Make it happen, NFL.
 
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Lucas: Ravens.When in doubt go with the home team. It’s the regular season; I think Joe Flacco bounces back and Ray Rice gets re-involved in the offense. If not I’m losing this matchup. Give the man the ball, Harbaugh!
Nathaniel: Patriots. While both teams lost last week, one of them lost because they got shredded through the air (granted, when the other team wasn't handing the ball over to them). The other lost because Zoltan Mesko had a punt blocked. As long as the Ravens don't mess with the Zoltan, I'm liking New England.
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)
Lucas: Packers. The prospect of going to the most inhospitable stadium in the league made this a tough pick, but the line is only 3.5. Green Bay can beat that. They have MVP Tim Masthay! Screw that Rodgers guy and his 122 passer rating last year!
Nathaniel: Seahawks. Playing a hunch here. The Packers looked out of sync offensively in their first two games at Lambeau; a Monday Night game against a top-ten defense in the toughest outdoor environment in the league isn't exactly the easiest time or place to work yourself back into shape...
Records so far:
Lucas: 19-13, 10-6 last week
Nathaniel: 14-18, 8-8 last week

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 4

It's Week 4 in the NCAA football season, and I think it's time for the power rankings to change. Conference play is really starting to pick up at this point; while some schools have played a game or 2 in conference, the Pac-12 has all in-conference games this week. This makes my formula not work anymore, as the Pac-12 would unfairly fall in the rankings. I felt that it worked okay for the first few weeks, but really looking at this week's slate and talking to my dad who came up with an improved way to use the formula to evaluate conferences' outside tilts, I decided it's time for the overhaul.

The scoring system for each school will not change. For the first 3 weeks of the season I added up the scores of each school in a given conference and took that as the conference's score. The obvious issue here is that, while the rankings did give a fairly accurate rating of where each conference stood, it neglected the factor of conference size. The top 3 conferences in last week's rankings were all 12 or 13-team conferences, while near the bottom we saw conferences like the Big XII (down to 10 teams) and the 8-team Big East in the bottom 2 slots. The SEC is the largest conference at 14 teams, so size isn't the end-all, be-all factor, but it's enough to impact the rankings. The easy solution my dad came up with? Take the average score of each school in a conference, instead of the sum. So that's what we will do from here on out. The scores posted weekly will still be cumulative over the course of the season.

As a result, the rankings will probably look a lot different than they have the first couple weeks, but it was a change I needed to make. A link to last week's rankings is above and as follows are the new rankings.

  1. Conference-USA (5.25): While the aggregate score would have only been good enough for 2nd in the previous format,when you average it all out, these teams have scheduled strong teams.As for this week, some conference play has started but the non-conference games are all against FBS foes with East Carolina, Memphis, UAB and UTEP all undertaking tough road tests.
  2. Sun Belt (5): This was a tough call in a tie with #3, broken based on the highest weekly score, which the Sun Belt got last week for 7 teams facing major conference opponents. They took a step down this week with Arkansas State hosting a cupcake, but Florida Atlantic and South Alabama both hit the road against major conference schools.
  3. MAC (5): Some of the tiebreakers I came up with were size-biased (for example, a ratio of games at big conference opponents to game hosting D-IAA schools) so I opted for the tiebreaker above. It's still a respectable slate this week, with Akron, Bowling Green, and Central and Eastern Michigan off to big schools. Ohio is hosting a cupcake to bring down the slate this week however.
  4. Big Ten (4.33): The top scheduling major conference wasn't as strong this week as in previous ones, as Nebraska and Northwestern host cupcakes. This is offset a little by decent games for Michigan and Minnesota. Overall though the B1G has scheduled very well.
  5. Mountain West (4.1): The Mountain West does take a bit of a step up with the new formula, but nothing too special about this week's slate. Fresno State and Wyoming have decent games scheduled, but their aggregate score this week was a little lower with conference play underway.
  6. Big East (3.75): A strong showing by a conference many fear is dying, the Big East had its best week with only Pitt hosting an FCS squad. Tough road games for Syracuse, Temple and Rutgers give them a good week to put the conference in the middle of the pack.
  7. WAC (3.71): Karl Malone's alma mater (LA Tech) is off to be a sacrificial lamb (Karl Malone just don't want to blood squirtin' Karl Malone in the eye), and that is enough to offset a pair of cupcake games by Texas State and UTSA. For Texas-San Antonio, it's a contest against D-II's Northwestern Oklahoma State University, their second D-II contest of the season, and for the purposes of the Death to the BCS playoffs, UTSA is disqualified. I don't care that this is a WAC team, their out of conference schedule has been ludicrous.
  8. Pac-12 (3): Everyone in conference is either off this week or playing each other, so to continue with aggregate scores would have been unfair solely because of these guys. A drop from 5th to 8th is a sign that there probably was some inflation due to conference size. The average score of 3 indicates that the average Pac-12 school scheduled 3 home games against mid majors, though there are a few tough road games and some cupcake scheduling.
  9. SEC (2.57): Having 14 teams got them to the middle of the pack in the aggregate rankings, but the average is clearly a problem overall. The SEC has played a grand total of 2 road games against major conference opponents, though there have been some neutral site games involved. There have also been some conference games going on since Week 2, and the conference reputation isn't helped by 7 cupcake games, 1 this week by Texas A&M. To be fair, the SEC has paid the price a little bit thus far for its weak scheduling with some supposed sacrificial lambs losing to these FCS teams.
  10. ACC (2.42): The score here is a little out of whack as Georgia Tech has only played one game out of conference (but it was against an FCS team). This week Maryland and Virginia hit the road for tough games and NC State hosts a cupcake. Florida State is also on serious watch after having played a pair of FCS schools. They definitely aren't deserving of their AP rank.
  11. Big XII (2.3): Much of conference play will begin this week, but it's easy to see how this conference ranks last when of the 10 schools, all but Texas have played a cupcake. This week however, Baylor and Kansas hit the road while TCU and West Virginia host big conference teams.
The move to average scores does highlight the cupcake problem in college football, but it's not just the big schools that do it. The hope continues to be that everyone will schedule tougher when the playoffs begin. As for our Death to the BCS playoffs coming in December, these scores will be taken into account when picking the at large teams and seeding everyone.

Sunday, September 16, 2012

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 3

We're making progress! Last week we saw some huge upsets in the realm of college football despite continued scheduling of cupcakes, which is an encouraging sign. I had read something earlier this week on Grantland that suggested the gap between major conferences and mid-major conferences is closing. It may also be impacted by the upcoming playoff (which, in the author's view, is still going to be a broken and biased system). Whatever the case, schedules may be bound to change and if it renders this series of posts unnecessary, it's for the betterment of college football... and that's all that matters, yo.

As for this season, Week 3 started Thursday with a Big East battle. I apologize for this coming out late, but technical issues and a possibly dead laptop battery didn't help my scheduling.

After 3 weeks, the conference rankings are below. Click here for last week's rankings.

  1. Mid-American Conference (17; 50): After a week out of the top spot, schools like UMass and Western and Eastern Michigan hit the road against tough opponents to put the MAC back on top. There were some in-conference games and bye weeks to temper the move, and Akron hosted a cupcake, but overall a strong showing once again.
  2. Conference-USA (13; 46): Only Houston and UAB played tough road games and became sacrificial lambs, though Rice lost a tough road game and SMU hosted Texas A&M, so a pretty tough slate again this week. Tulsa lost points for beating up on Nicholls State.
  3. Big 10 (10; 44): Northwestern and Ohio State were the only schools that played a major conference team, and everyone else was home to smaller schools. Shame is put especially on Illinois and Iowa, who hosted cupcakes and helped the Big Ten fall to 3rd this week.
  4. Sun Belt (27; 40): These guys saw a huge jump as only Troy played at home this week, and that was against the SEC's Mississippi State. Everyone else hit the road, with 7 teams facing big conference opponents. Western Kentucky (another big SEC upset!) and Middle Tennessee were the only winners, but some credit does need to go to these athletic directors for not laying down.
  5. Pac-12 (11; 36): Cal and ASU hit the road for tough games, and that was partially offset by Arizona and Washington giving away money for a beatdown. The USC-Stanford game didn't help or hurt the ranking here, but it will make USC an interesting case study for the upcoming Death to the BCS playoffs.
  6. Mountain West Conference (6; 33): Not a good overall showing for these guys this week. Only New Mexico went to the slaughter while Hawaii, Nevada, SDSU and Wyoming hosted D-IAA schools. Wyoming paid its price with a loss, but it still doesn't make up any points.
  7. SEC (12; 30): Bye weeks and conference matchups didn't help the cause any, but the damage this week was minimal as only Vanderbilt hosted a cupcake. There were no big conference road games, but Texas A&M and Mississippi State were on the road this week, while Missouri and Ole Miss hosted big time opponents. After an opening week with 4 cupcakes scheduled, the SEC has been good about avoiding its stereotype, with a combined 2 cupcakes the last 2 weekends.
  8. WAC (11; 22): It's a small conference, but they score fairly well for that level as Utah State and Idaho got money for their troubles, and no cupcakes were in sight.
  9. ACC (9; 20): Finally these guys earned some respect with a few tough road games (Boston College, North Carolina and Virginia Tech left the comforts of home). However, the cupcake problem still isn't solved as Clemson, Duke and Miami all hosted FCS squads.
  10. Big East (5; 16): UConn went to Maryland and got a win, Pitt scored a home upset and Louisville knocked off a tough ACC foe. Cincy and Syracuse took penalties for cupcakes to offset this. Having conference games every Thursday doesn't help the score either.
  11. Big XII (3; 15): Kansas played TCU, which didn't help the score, but with only Texas facing a major conference team on the road (blowing out Ole Miss), there wasn't much room for growth with Baylor, ISU and West Virginia knocking off cupcakes.
I will again freely admit, this scoring system is not perfect. I think the theory behind scoring for teams is good, but I will have an adjustment at the end of the season regarding conference scores. Looking at the standings, most of the bigger conferences rest on top, except the 14 team SEC which has stayed more in the middle. The bottom 3 conferences (all major ones interestingly) are the smaller 3 of the big conferences. It does hold somewhat of a candle to the theory of cupcake scheduling, but with some adjustments near the end of the season we'll see how well the theory holds up. Enjoy your NFL Sunday everyone! I know I enjoyed Thursday.

Friday, September 7, 2012

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 2


The NFL season is nicely underway and week 2 of the college season began yesterday with a conference tilt in the Big East. But I'm back to focus on the non conference games on tap this weekend. I posted the formula in last week's edition (link is below) but again the gist of the formula is that you get rewarded for playing major conference teams and/or on the road and punished for having cupcakes on your schedule.

For the rest of the season the rankings listed will be cumulative scores from every week of the season, so there will be a little variation but not wildly. In the event of ties (there are multiple again this week) the current week's score and the presence of cupcakes versus tough tests will be taken into account.

Click here for last week's rankings. In parentheses below for each conference, the first number is the score for this week's schedule and the second number is cumulative score for the season.
  1. Big Ten (23; 34): A phenomenal showing topping any total from last week puts these guys at the top. Minnesota is the only team hosting an FCS school this weekend, and a majority of the conference is on the road. Kudos especially to Nebraska, Illinois, Penn State, and Wisconsin for heading out to face major foes (plus Purdue off to South Bend to play Notre Dame).
  2. Conference-USA (13; 33): They stay pat at number 2, but took a step back with 2 teams (Marshall and SMU) hosting cupcakes. They do match the B1G's travel to tough opponents with 4 teams (East Carolina, UTEP, UCF and Rice, the latter two of whom have started with the best scores in this metric for a team so far along with a few others). Their score this week is also impacted by a conference game (Tulane-Tulsa) plus byes for Southern Miss and UAB.
  3. Mid-American Conference: (11, 33): C-USA got the nod because 5 MAC teams are hosting cupcakes this week (NIU, Buffalo, Eastern and Western Michigan, and Miami-Ohio). Ball State and Kent State are off to play big boys, and Central Michigan is hosting Michigan State to help offset that. Could be better as a whole, but a decent week for these guys as opposed to an amazing one drops them to 3rd.
  4. Mountain West Conference (10, 27): This week only 2 schools (UNLV and Colorado State) earn criticism while the Air Force, Fresno State and New Mexico hit the road for big time games. Their weekly score is roughly middle of the pack overall, so there's no shame in where they're at.
  5. Pac-12 (16; 25): Overall these guys really stepped it up from last week. There are still 3 teams hosting I-AA squads (Cal, Washington State and Colorado) but with Washington and USC on the road facing tough opponents and teams like UCLA and both Arizona schools hosting quality opponents, it's almost a shame the Pac-12 didn't score higher.
  6. SEC (9; 17): Conference tilts are already underway this week (3 games total) which didn't help their cause but the SEC still came away with a good showing overall. Tennessee is the only school that got penalized, while you see Vanderbilt going on the road and LSU hosting Washington.
  7. Sun Belt (5; 13): One conference game took away a little potential here, but much of the conference isn't off to the slaughter this week, instead playing other mid major conference opponents. The exception is Western Kentucky, off to face Alabama.
  8. Big XII (10; 12): The Big XII made up for a poor showing last week to jump up the rankings. Oklahoma is hosting a cupcake, and former mid major TCU isn't thrilling me with a season opener against a current mid major. However, Iowa State and Oklahoma State leaving the comforts of home to face other big schools helps offset this.
  9. Big East (6; 11): This 3-way tie was fairly tough to break, especially considering I initially miscalculated one of the below conferences, but one school in each of them puts the Big East at the head of this group. Getting the Cincy win over Pitt out of the picture, you have Louisville and Rutgers, 2 schools that impressed last week hosting cupcakes, but tough opponents for UConn, South Florida, Temple and Syracuse (2 very tough opening games at home. Much respect.) give them an edge.
  10. WAC: (7; 11): I originally had the WAC at 8 points for the week giving them 12 total before taking a closer look at the schedule. Utah State is hosting a tough Utah squad tonight, and most of the other schools are either home against big schools or on the road against other mid majors. San Jose State lost a point for an FCS team, and UTSA is playing D-II's Texas A&M-Commerce. It's the Lions' first ever game against an FBS team. I don't care if it's against a WAC team, you scheduled a D-II team that has won 4 games in the last 2-plus seasons and hasn't a season above .500 since at least 2007. Shame on you. I'm moving on to the last place conference before my rage breaks.
  11. ACC (11; 11): They improved over a score of 0 last week, so that's something. But despite Maryland, NC State, Duke and Miami all off to face big opponents in their houses, we still have 4 teams hosting cupcakes in Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. I'm especially ashamed of Florida State, the only school in the FBS with a negative score in my non conference scheduling metric because they've hosted 2 cupcakes.
As a random aside, I've included the independents in my study as well, and they have 6 total points through 2 weeks (3 each week). BYU is the only one to schedule a cupcake so far and Notre Dame has 3 of their 6 points to date. I'll have next week's rankings updated when I get a look at those schedules. Enjoy a full weekend of football! Hope your fantasy teams are doing well, and if you're picking teams, I hope you're off to a better start than Nathaniel and I am!

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 1

Rejoice fans, the NFL season is here! Well, tonight it's here following a long work day, but you get good entertainment tonight! So in keeping with my plans alongside Nathaniel Fritz, author for Someone Still Loves You, Alberto Riveron, we will be alternating posting our picks for each NFL game. As it is still morning, you can join our group here.

The rules of this are pretty simple; we're picking against the spread as opposed to picking winners as it poses more of a challenge and makes you think more about outcomes. Posted below are my and Nathaniel's picks with rationales for each game in Week 1.

Dallas Cowboys at NY Giants (-3.5)
Lucas: Giants. The defending champs by tradition open at home and despite the usual tradition of the Giants starting seasons slowly, I'm confident they beat the spread in the opener. We're looking at probably a 7, 10 point game by the time all is said and done.
Nathaniel: Giants. A. The defending Super Bowl champion NEVER loses this opening night home game. B. The Giants look like they're noticeably better than Dallas this year anyway. One of the easiest picks of the week.

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (-10.5)
Lucas:  Bears. This was a tough pick and a well-set line by Vegas. I think the Andrew Luck Experience will start well, but from the bits and pieces of Bears preseason football I caught this offense looks scary good. I don't think a Colts defense still adjusting to 3-4 scheme will be able to fully hold off these guys.
Nathaniel: Colts. I'd be shocked if the Bears lost this game, but the likelihood of Andrew Luck coming up with a backdoor cover in the fourth quarter is too great for me to pick them against the spread.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (+8.5)
Lucas: Eagles. I don't care if it's on the road, it's Cleveland. The better line would be at what point does Michael Vick get hurt? I say he's fine this week, but within a couple weeks he'll be nursing a dislocated elbow or something.
Nathaniel: Browns. Don't get me wrong, the Eagles will be much better than Cleveland this year, but giving a HOME team 8.5 points against a team (supremely talented as they might be) that went 8-8 last year? Gotta take the points, I think.

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-8.5)
Lucas: Lions. Boromir says so.
Nathaniel: Lions. The Lions are not a team you want to play against if you have offensive line issues. Just get out of there without needing a body cast, Sam Bradford!

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+6.5)
Lucas: Patriots. I don't think this secondary can contain Tom Brady and company. Too many points to be given up, and I don't think Jake Locker has the experience or the supporting cast to turn it into a shootout.
Nathaniel: Patriots. To make this interesting, Tennessee's going to have put up at least 24 to have a chance at making the cover and I don't have the faith in Jake Locker to make that leap.

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefts (+0.5)
Lucas: Falcons. The Chiefs aren't a terrible team (hence the line), but I don't think they can keep up with Atlanta's offense, and the Falcons are an excellent regular season team.
Nathaniel: Chiefs. To me, these teams are virtually even with Kansas City as the home team; so touché, Vegas. When in doubt, take the half-point?

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Lucas: Jaguars in an upset. Adrian Peterson is probably not going to be the guy we're used to seeing and I think it hurts them in their opener.
Nathaniel: Jaguars. Two possible front-runners for the 2013 Matt Barkley Sweepstakes square off; expect the action to be RIVETING.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-9.5)
Lucas: Redskins. I think the line is too high with New Orleans' defense. They're vulnerable and we could see a nice debut from RG3. Saints still win, just not by that much.
Nathaniel: Redskins. Let's see: a supremely exciting and talented quarterback going up against a team that has virtually its whole defense suspended and is being coached by their INTERIM interim coach is getting 9.5 points? Yeah, I think I can go with that.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3.5)
Lucas: Bills in an upset. Okay, maybe it's not much of an upset with a majority of of the Pick 'Em crowd going with Buffalo but that improved defense shouldn't have much trouble with the Sanchez/Tebow squad. It's just a question of can they score enough.
Nathaniel: Bills. Another toss-up in my book - taking the points and praying for one or fewer Ryan Fitzpatrick interceptions.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-7.5)
Lucas: Texans. Ryan Tannehill doesn't exactly have the weaponry to combat Houston, even though the Texan D lost a few key players. They should still cover in Week 1.
Nathaniel: Texans. HOW IS THIS LINE ONLY 7.5? Not that I'm complaining at all...

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
Lucas: 49ers. There's enough pressure from the Niner defense to give Aaron Rodgers some fits and Alex Smith has a decent day against a gelling Packer D, but it's not enough to stop the MVP from leading a game winning drive in the 4th quarter.
Nathaniel: Packers. The team that had unsustainably good turnover luck last year (but also has the best quarterback alive) should have no problem with the team that had unsustainably good turnover luck last year (and has Alex Smith).

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)
Lucas: Seahawks in an "upset" similar to the Bills. Arizona has home field but I think Russell Wilson shines in his debut.
Nathaniel: Seahawks. I know Seattle hasn't exactly lit the world on fire the past few years, but I can't possibly understand why a team starting John Skelton at quarterback would possibly be favored in this context. Give me the rookie quarterback on the road in his first start!

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)
Lucas: Panthers. They'll cover the spread, but probably not by much. Tampa will make it an interesting game as Cam Newton starts a bit of a sophomore struggle. Think a 21-17 type of game.
Nathaniel: Buccaneers. My pick for Sunday's most surprisingly entertaining game. With two good offenses and two VERY QUESTIONABLE defenses, this should be a game with a score up in the sixties and extensive nail-biting throughout.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-1.5)
Lucas: Broncos. A little leftover Tebow magic plus Peyton Manning's debut goes pretty well for Denver as they are barely able to cover the spread. Should be a fun game.
Nathaniel: Steelers. Can't believe I'm picking against Peyton Manning in a night game...can't believe I'm picking against Peyton Manning in a night game...can't believe I'm picking against Peyton Manning in a night game...

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Lucas: Ravens. Andy Dalton is able to do a little damage with AJ Green against this tough defense, but Joe Flacco comes out firing and Ray Rice is able to run out the clock late after Dalton turns it over one too many times.
Nathaniel: Bengals. Here's where we see how much the Ravens miss Terrell Suggs...

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+1.5)
Lucas: Raiders in an upset. It's a small enough line and the Chargers tend to start seasons slowly enough I think the Raiders could pull this one off at home.
Nathaniel: Raiders. Another game that should be wildly entertaining. Of course, since it's going to end at about 1:30 in the morning on the East Coast, not too many people will know that...

We're alternating who's posting our picks for every given week, so Nathaniel will have the picks next week. Enjoy today's season opener and the games on Sunday and Monday!

Sunday, September 2, 2012

AFC North Preview

For the NFC East preview, click here.
For the AFC East preview, click here.
For the NFC South preview, click here.
For the AFC South preview, click here.
For the NFC West preview, click here.
For the AFC West preview, click here.
For the NFC North preview, click here.

It's been a lot of work this week but it's finally down to the last division in the NFL for the previews. I would have liked to save the NFC North for the end, but it works out well. Here's the last of my NFL previews.

AFC North
Common opponents on schedule: AFC West, NFC East

1.  Baltimore Ravens
2011 Record: 12-4, lost in AFC Championship game

This Ravens team is probably one of the most complete in the league. Despite the age of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, this is still a very tough defense, especially up front with guys like Haltoi Ngata. This offense is also a legitimate threat with the most complete back in the league in Ray Rice and the weapons to complement Joe Flacco. He's still not in the class of Brady, Brees and Rodgers regardless of what he says, but he's good enough to get this team to a deep postseason run.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers*
2011 Record: 12-4, lost in AFC Wild Card round

They'll be right in the hunt with Baltimore with that continually tough 3-4 defense, though health is a big concern with these guys. They're already out an offensive lineman in David DeCastro, and for whatever reason James Harrison is not listed on their current depth chart despite being on the roster. Offensively a good to go Rashard Mendenhall will complement a good passing game led by Roethlisberger-to-Mike Wallace combination. These guys will easily get a wild card spot if not the division, but those injuries will be tough to overcome.

3. Cincinnati Bengals
2011 Record: 9-7, lost in AFC Wild Card round

Last year was an interesting look at a team on the rise. Andy Dalton has the makings of a good quarterback, especially with A.J. Green to throw to. Getting the Law Firm will help balance it out with the loss of Cedric Benson. Defensively they have a good secondary, but I'm not sold on the front 7. They'll be right in the hunt for a playoff spot again though; could steal that last wild card again. But I think Dalton will regress just a little bit in his sophomore season.

4. Cleveland Browns
2011 Record: 4-12, missed playoffs

They took advantage of good draft picks in guys like Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson, but there will be a learning curve with these guys. Having Scott Fujita missing in action early on will hurt a defense that otherwise probably will have some issues aside from Joe Haden at corner. They're going in the right direction, but with strength at the top of the division now will take time for this team to fully mature.

So to recap, here's a rough look at the playoff picture for the AFC.
  1. Baltimore
  2. New England
  3. Houston
  4. San Diego
  5. Pittsburgh
  6. Denver 
Coming up here in the next couple days, either here or on Somebody Still Loves You, Alberto Riveron, Nathaniel and I will have our Week 1 NFL picks. The season is right around the corner! If you want to help pick against us, you can join our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group for free. You have a couple days yet. Enjoy the season!

Saturday, September 1, 2012

NFC North Preview

For the NFC East preview, click here.
For the AFC East preview, click here.
For the NFC South preview, click here.
For the AFC South preview, click here.
For the NFC West preview, click here.
For the AFC West preview, click here.

It took several days but I'm finally to the one I care most about and probably the one most of my readership cares about in the NFC North. Home to my team, the local team, the team much of my extended family roots for, and Detroit. I've been looking forward to this one since I started writing these, so much so that I've all but decided what I'm going to write for most of these teams. And thrown in a few fun references and jokes for good measure.

NFC North
Common opponents on schedule: NFC West, AFC South

1. Green Bay Packers
2011 Record: 15-1, lost in NFC Divisional round

Last year's Super Bowl defense was cut prematurely short by greatest fall of a defense maybe ever in NFL history. Ted Thompson promptly took care of the major issues via the draft as he often has, so while the defense probably won't necessarily be great aside from Thor, Charles Woodson, and hopefully a healthy Tramon Williams, they can't be nearly as bad as they were last year. Either way, scoring points shouldn't be an issue again barring injury. I liked the late addition of Cedric Benson to add balance to an attack that already has the best player alive right now. Rodgers has a little bit of a Jordan gene to him in that he will take advantage of any slight, even if perceived. We'll see how he responds to last year's early exit.

2. Chicago Bears*
2011 Record: 8-8, missed playoffs

This team probably scares me the most among pretty much any of the other NFC contenders, especially given how close the Bears always seem to play the Packers. Jay Cutler finally has some weapons to throw to in being reunited with Brandon Marshall and the Bears drafting Alshon Jeffrey, while getting rid of the unintentional comedy Mike Martz brought to the team (WARNING: link contains strong language, though I think you all probably know what this is). Meanwhile that defense is still scary, with or without Urlacher, though their biggest question mark will be if the safeties can keep receivers in front of them. They're getting back to the playoffs this year though, I have no doubt.

3. Detroit Lions
2011 Record: 10-6, lost in NFC Wild Card round

Amazingly last year, Matthew Stafford was finally able to stay healthy and that helped this team reach the playoffs for the first time in a long time. It also helps that Stafford has a guy like Megatron who can catch anything regardless of whether you have him single covered, in a zone, triple covered, or with Optimus Prime guarding him. Defensively is where this team gets some question marks. They were fairly easy to pass against last year, as evidenced by Matt Flynn going insane in Week 17 against these guys, and there's always the concern like with Oakland about taking dumb penalties. I'm looking at you, Suh, you scumbag.

4. Minnesota Vikings
2011 Record: 3-13, missed playoffs

Year 2 of the Christian Ponder experience should bring a little improvement over his rookie year, and it's always a plus not to be learning from a guy who seemed to spike every pass 5 yards in front of his intended receiver. The big question will be the impact on the running game with Adrian Peterson coming off that torn ACL. On defense, they were porous last year, though if nothing else the presence of Mike Singletary had some sort of impact. This team is a far cry from what it was just a few years ago when they were one totally expected Brett Favre pick away from a possible Super Bowl berth.

We're down to one last division in the AFC North, which will come up tomorrow. But with all 4 divisions set, here's how the general NFC playoff picture looks according to me:
  1. Green Bay
  2. NY Giants
  3. San Francisco
  4. Atlanta
  5. Chicago
  6. New Orleans