Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The NBA: Where Instantaneous Connection Happens

I now wish I had NBA TV. But even without it we can see history unfold.

Many have said that the power of social media is in how quickly news can be spread throughout the world. Some of it is false (a la false death reports about Joe Paterno last week), but some of it is reaction to amazing things that just happened. That's how I found out about this little gem.


I saw instant reaction on Twitter after the dunk, and people like Bill Simmons demanding the video on YouTube. People responded quickly and got it up for all to bask in. My mouth just hung open the first time I watched it. Reactions went from praising Blake Griffin to eulogizing Kendrick Perkins.

That's the blessings of sports today: it's literally global. I'm sure basketball fans around the world are following in on something like this. Being amazed at what is probably the dunk of the year, sharing with their friends, and just as a global community, taking in this sight. Sharing their thoughts about it. The wonder of the Internet, firmly on display. The NBA is really thriving because of the instant reaction the YouTube/Twitter generation is having. Take part in it. Enjoy it.

And if you're a politician who wants to "crack down on piracy", look at what happened with this amazing dunk. The time taken to share this moment globally would be destroyed because YouTube and Twitter would be out of commission, and we'd have no way to really share these amazing moments with others other than at the water cooler at work tomorrow... when all we have to rely on is memory and if we're lucky, SportsCenter, rather than being able to watch the clip from our computers, tablets, or phones.

Let it thrive online for the greater good... and also so future generations of Perkins know that their ancestor had his soul stripped from his body in midair by one of the most athletic freaks of nature this world has ever known.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Once More Through the Gauntlet

Bear with me if some of the content seems out of place; I'm trying to work on this in bits and pieces from my iPhone. Obviously I will do some editing after the fact so it should be okay.

With my latest Game Notes done, the CCIW slate is halfway done, with each team playing everybody else once. They have one more date apiece, so I will get to see every school in action.

Men's Basketball


The Cardinals are back where they were last year: right in the title hunt, with Wesleyan only leading due to a better overall record, but the Cardinals hold the tiebreaker due to the head-to-head win. The lone loss came in double overtime at Wheaton, but they were it not for their collapse near the end of regulation they likely would have run the table.

Coach Raridon said after the win over North Park on Tuesday that his team has come out sluggish the last few games, but they've gotten away with it. You can't expect it to work every night though.

The second time through, the Cardinals have to travel to Kenosha and Bloomington, both difficult trips. But I can see at worst 4-3, given those tough road trips, plus home dates against Wheaton and Augie, but it's likely 5-2 or 6-1 en route to hopefully another conference title and the right to host the tournament.

Women's Basketball


Official scorer Tye Thompson said last night that the North Park game would tell us a lot about who this team is. And unfortunately, 2012 is not their year. This team has found just about every way to lose, from blowouts (Carthage, Wesleyan, Wheaton) to not coming out with intensity in the second half (Elmhurst, Millikin, North Park) and even a loss by buzzer beater (Augie).

We know the identity of this team. They play pretty good defense and can do well when it leads to fast breaks, they rebound fairly well for their size (except last night), and they don't perform well in the halfcourt set on offense. This is a first-half team; they always seem to come out with energy and play very well in the first half, only to lose that edge after the intermission. It's frustrating to watch.

For the future, this team will have some personnel that can compete on a higher level. As for the second half, trips to Kenosha and Bloomington will probably see similar results, but this Cardinal team can't possibly go 0-14 in conference play... right?

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Game Notes: North Park University @ North Central College (1/25/12)

Final Score
North Park 62, NCC 50

Summary
The Cardinals (6-12, 0-7) fell behind 10-3 early on, forcing coach Roof to call a timeout. From that point, the Cardinals went on a 15-0 run before the Vikings (8-10, 2-5) came back to make it a game. NCC led 23-21 at the break. It was fairly even early on in the second half, seeing a tie game at 33 and a three pulled the Cardinals within 2 at 43-41. But then the Vikings went on a 12-0 run to put the Cardinals away and keep them winless in conference play.

Key Stats
  • NPU: Outrebounded NCC 41-37 (25-12 in 2nd half). North Central didn't seem to have the energy they normally did, especially in the 2nd half tonight. The sad part about the 2nd half numbers is that North Park had as many offensive rebounds as the Cardinals did overall. That by itself is a good indicator as to why the Cardinals lost tonight.
  • Maryssa Cladis (NCC): 3-5 FG (3-4 3PT), 2-2 FT, 11 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast. Another freshman with a good future. She set a new career high in points, and will be someone to reckon with from deep. She was the leading scorer for the Cardinals who struggled offensively overall once again.
  • Roxanne Jones (NPU): 8-12 FG, 3-5 FT, 19 pts, 9 reb (5 off). I don't know why, but North Central has had trouble containing post players this season. 13 of Jones' points came in the 2nd half, and she made her presence known down low all game. Tough to get going when you're getting destroyed in the paint.
Cardinal Turnover Watch
We set an over/under on turnovers at the scorers' table right when the game started. The number was 20, and I took the over. I feel bad having no faith in this team to take care of the ball, but unfortunately I was right. 21 turnovers tonight, including 2 shot clock violations, but the biggest killer of all was the fact that 14 of the 21 turnovers came off steals (including 7 of the 8 giveaways in the 2nd half). Too be honest though, the turnovers weren't entirely the worst part tonight.

Final Thoughts
This was the rare game where the Cardinals got out-hustled. It seemed pretty clear North Park wanted this game more. And unfortunately, the Cardinals have lost to every team in the conference once. It's a tough go from here on out, and I'm hoping they can at least get one win before the end of the season. Tomorrow I'll have a recap of both the men's and women's teams at the halfway point of conference play.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Sports ≥ Life?

This is probably going to be one of the more complicated posts I end up putting on here. I wanted to do something regarding the passing of Joe Paterno, but in light of some recent social media events (as well as mass media events too, I suppose), I'm putting his death into perspective.

I'll admit, I was fooled briefly on Saturday when a Penn State student newspaper broke the news that Joe Pa had passed away, and I retweeted the original post... only to find out a couple minutes later that the story was in fact false. I took down the retweet and felt bad that I had fallen for it, especially since I had checked ESPN and other sources to try and confirm what I had heard. When I saw it on ESPN's website yesterday morning with confirmation from the family, you knew it was official.

The lesson in all of this? Yes, it was a big mistake on the part of a young up-and-coming journalist, but it's rule number one. Check your facts before you post something. I always want to do my research before I post something, and it's always good to have data to back up your claims. You learn this in your basic writing classes even before college. The editor of said PSU paper did resign after his mistake, so he was at least accountable. CBS did later on too, but from a professional organization, you expect better.

As for Paterno himself, it's a complicated mess. I haven't been sure what to say about it, as I am not an avid college football fan, other than trying to incite people towards a playoff. Had he passed away 10 years ago, I'm not sure I would have known who he was. To me he was the guy who was at Penn State forever. History will show him as the winningest coach in D-I history, and a legend, as well he should be remembered. But fairly or not, history will also remember him as the guy who "should have done more" about the Sandusky allegations. Yesterday morning I was listening to John Kincade on the way to church, and he said we need to remember everything about Joe Pa, not just bits and pieces. That means Penn State fans need to take the controversy with the wins, and haters need to remember that despite the presence of an alleged pedophile in the football facilities, Paterno was still a good football coach and someone who strove to help boys grow into strong young men, though some say he got off easy, passing away just a couple months after being fired, without really a chance to reflect on what he'd allowed to happen.

Friday, January 20, 2012

Gateway to Indianapolis

I've pushed this post back a ways, partially because I couldn't think of how to attack this, and also because I wasn't sure who to pick. But this is the big week: winners get 2 weeks to prepare for the biggest game of the season. And after another week of getting 2 out of 4 games right, I need to get back on track.

AFC Championship
It's not often that you see the #1 and #2 seeds matching up, but both Baltimore and New England won their divisional games. The Patriots have probably the best offense of anyone left in the playoffs, but they're going up against one of the top defenses in the league. This is a hard one to pick because the Patriots didn't beat a single team with a winning record this season, but I'm not sure the Ravens have the defensive personnel to stop Hernandez and Gronkowski. This one will come down to the wire for sure. Patriots over Ravens.

NFC Championship
I got both of the division games here wrong. I did not expect Alex Smith to suddenly become an amazing quarterback and lead the Niners to victory over the Saints. I've already stated enough about the Giants over the Pack. For this game, the Niners have a great run defense that will keep Jacobs and Bradshaw under control for the most part, but they have an average secondary. And Eli Manning is playing out of his mind in the last month and a half at least. Plus with the pressure the G-Men can put on Smith... yeah. Giants over 49ers.

I know it's being hyped way in advance by most of the media, but it just seems like the Pats and Giants are destined for a Super Bowl rematch 4 years after their first clash. I know the stakes won't be as high this time around, what with no pressure for 19-0, but I get the feeling Jerrel Jernigan will end up making a catch off Vince Wilfork's stomach, then spin away from 7 Patriot defenders before doing a barrel roll into the end zone as time expires to give the Giants a win. There's been some crazy things this season, what's one more in the Super Bowl?

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Game Notes: Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (1/18/12)

Final Score
(25)Illinois Wesleyan 87, NCC 53

Summary
The Titans (12-4, 5-0) never trailed, hitting their shots early and fairly often. The Cardinals (6-10, 0-5) got as close as 3 in the middle of the opening half before Wesleyan started to pull away. The Cardinals kept it around 10, ultimately trailing by 13 at the break. I had talked to Geoff Clark and he said either the Cardinals would come out and make it a game or see Wesleyan break it open. The latter happened, as the Titans got off on a 13-2 run to start the 2nd half, leading by as much as 34 late.

Key Stats
  • NCC: 19-49 FG (38.8%), 4-16 3PT, 11-19 FT (57.9%). Bad shooting nights tend to bite you. And this one wasn't necessarily terrible overall, but there were a number of forced shots, and shooting 25 percent from deep usually doesn't help. Free throw percentages need to go up too; you have to take advantage of scoring opportunities with a stopped clock... especially when trailing.
  • Bobbi Johns (NCC): 4-6 FG (2-4 3PT), 10 pts, 4 reb, 3 ast, 1 stl. Her first career start, and her first mention in Confessions of a Sportscaster. She did a good job hitting shots tonight, and took them in the flow of the offense to hit double figures for the first time. She's got a lot of potential as the point guard of the future.
  • Olivia Lett (IWU): 9-14 FG (3-5 3PT), 5-6 FT, 26 pts, 8 reb, 2 ast, 4 stl. The CCIW's leading scorer showed why she's at the top tonight, topping her average (20.3 coming into tonight). She scored her team's first 5 points, and had 17 at the half. She was hitting from pretty much everywhere and could have easily had more if she played more than the 28 minutes she was on the floor.
Cardinal Turnover Watch
Yikes. They took a step back tonight, turning the ball over a whopping 30 times. They had 11 at the half, and it just went downhill from there. Granted, Illinois Wesleyan played an extremely tough full court press that the Cardinals had a lot of trouble with (13 of the 30 turnovers were steals). But there were some mistakes in the halfcourt set too that caused problems. The leading culprits were Emily Murphy and Bobbi Johns (5 apiece) with Helen Muleya and Sophie Newson each giving it up 4 times. They need to cut down on these turnovers if they want to stay in games. It didn't help that the Titans only turned it over 14 times tonight.

Final Thoughts
For all the facepalming I do at the scorers' table and all the depressing remarks I seem to be making about this team lately, the one thing I cannot question is their heart. Even down 30 late, they weren't just going through the motions, they were hustling and trying to make a game of it. They weren't going to roll over. Wesleyan has long been a power in the D-III women's basketball scene, and the Cardinals have routinely been blown out by the Titans, but they didn't give up even though it would have been easy to. They will have to continue to show that heart on Saturday in Decatur as they take on Millikin, and I will have another report a week from tonight after what will hopefully be the second straight win for the Cardinals.  

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Requiem of a Football Season

AP Photo/Mike Roemer
I had to give this game a couple days to sink in and let the sad feelings go away. This one was tough to swallow. As far as playoff losses go, this is one of the most depressing, but not the most heartbreaking. That one goes to either Super Bowl XXXII or the last time the Packers met the Giants. I figured Green Bay would come out strong and it would be a competitive game, but I also feared in the back of my mind that Eli Manning and company would come out really strong. Boy, did they ever.

I only watched the first half, but that was really all I needed to see. This was not the Green Bay team that came to play most of the regular season. Guys were dropping passes, Green Bay turned it over a lot more than usual, and most shocking of all was seeing Aaron Rodgers miss throws. But this is the NFL, anything can happen on any given Sunday, and most importantly for the Giants, they took advantage of the Green Bay miscues to the tune of 37 points and 420 yards of offense.

If nothing else, this game reminded me of the parity in the NFL, and just how hard it is to repeat as champions. The Packers had spent 17 weeks gearing up for opponents' best shots, and taking a lot of those best shots, only to come up standing more often than not. It can wear on a team, and that might have been the case Sunday in addition to the Giants earning the win. There's a reason we haven't seen a team repeat as champions in a decade. It's very hard to do.

I think this gives the Pack some time though, and they certainly aren't going anywhere next year. But they do need to make some key improvements.
  1. Defensive Line. I noted this while watching the game on Sunday, though many have stated it before as well. The Packers missed Cullen Jenkins this year. They managed only 29 sacks on the year, down from 47 a season ago. Jenkins had 7 in 2010, and Matthews dropped from 13.5 to 6 this year. The lack of pressure up front to occupy linemen I think was a major factor. And with no pressure, you give quarterbacks time to find open targets (see Manning, Eli). I heard a lot of talk about Mike Neal coming into the year, and he didn't live up to expectations. Granted, he didn't play till later in the season, and maybe a full offseason of practice will help, but the Packers need help up front to get back to where they were last season.
  2. Secondary. They gave up the most yards passing ever this season. Part of it was the lack of a pass rush, some was the loss of Nick Collins in Week 2, but guys like Tramon Williams and Sam Shields took a step back this year. I also was disgusted watching Charlie Peprah on the first Hakeem Nicks touchdown. I was disgusted watching it again on YouTube. They need to relearn how to tackle, maybe reload a little bit in the draft or via free agency. They can't possibly be as bad as this year... right?
  3. Backup QB. I think it's safe to say Matt Flynn is leaving after this year. Someone will overpay him (Seattle was discussed on Sunday) to be their starter, and Flynn is not a bad quarterback. Some of it may be in the system he's in, like what happened with Kevin Kolb, but Flynn can produce elsewhere. Green Bay needs to have someone to step in just in case Aaron Rodgers gets hurt/throw for garbage time touchdowns when up 21 late in the 4th.
Most importantly, Green Bay needs to take this time to reflect on their season, learn from their mistakes, and bounce back. This is a team that has Keyser Söze potential for next year (defined by Bill Simmons as "A great team with the 'eff-you' edge"). They know how to climb the mountain; they did it last season. And according to Simmons, the anger from being dethroned is a more powerful force than what a defending champion can bring. As evidenced by Steve Kerr regarding the 1996 and 1997 Chicago Bulls:
"I could make an argument that the '96 team was better because we were more motivated. The hunger factor was huge for us that year and that helped make us a great team... When you've won a title already, there's a sense of superiority and invincibility that wasn't there before. The great teams use that in a positive way, which is what [the Bulls] did. Instead of 'eff you' mode like in '96, it's more like 'You have no chance against us' mode. We were so confident from already having won a title that we knew we were going to crush everyone that year. That's a dangerous mentality to have, obviously, if you don't have a mature team... Anyway, for what it's worth, I thought the '96 team was better because of the edge we had." -The Book of Basketball, p. 631.
A hungry team can be a dangerous team, especially since the bulls-eye won't be as big. I can see Rodgers coming out next year and throwing for 6000 yards and 60 touchdowns, and Mike McCarthy knows how to motivate his team. They'll be ready for next year. Obviously, whoever wins the Super Bowl will likely be the favorite for next year, but don't count the Pack out.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Create-A-Bowl

Yeah, I know, I know. The BCS is done for the year so I should stop complaining. Confessions of a Sportscaster is starting to turn into an anti-BCS sounding board more and more every day.

I know that currently the BCS has a cap of 35 bowl games by virtue of a temporary moratorium, meaning as of right now, 70 of the 120 teams will play a postseason game. But why not one more to share the wealth (i.e. line some pockets)?

I've mentioned Death to the BCS on this blog before, even recommended it personally to a few people. One of the people who's picked up the book is my old friend Geoff Clark, he of the Grabbing the Bull Horns blog that is covering Da Bulls fairly in depth. He texted me this morning about his experience in reading it. We occasionally have awesome brainstorming sessions, and this turned into another one. Everything in parentheses that follows is thoughts I had at the time we were discussing this or notes about things related to what he or I say.

Geoffy: "Reading that book now. Can't believe they act like bowls profit everybody."
Me: "They want to keep up the idea so they can get richer. Told you it was eye-opening."
G: "If this is what happens to D-1 schools, I can even imagine what [North Central College athletic director] Jim Miller would be going through if it happened here."
Me: "We'd be out of competitive sports. Hell, we'd probably have been out after a few years."

Then Geoffy gets totally brilliant.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Game Notes: Elmhurst College @ North Central College (1/11/12)

Final Score
Elmhurst 64, NCC 52

Summary
Playing without 3 of their main rotation players (Callie Rezin, Kelsey Cooling, and Larynn Shumaker) for undisclosed reasons, the Cardinals (6-8, 0-3) started off hot once again, leading by as many as 6 early in the game before the Blue Jays (12-2, 3-0) started to come back. It was a 12-8 NCC lead when Elmhurst called a timeout to settle down and reset. They quickly stormed back and the teams traded leads, with Elmhurst up 27-25 at the half. In the 2nd, they started quickly, and the Cardinals got back within 3 at 31-28 but would get no closer. Elmhurst led by as much as 15 late, too big a gap with too little time on the clock.

Key Stats
  • NCC: 19-55 FG (34.5%), 2-8 3PT. You're not going to win a lot of games shooting only 35 percent from the floor and struggling from deep. To Elmhurst's credit, they played tight perimeter defense, only letting Jenny Swanson get off 3 attempts (she made 1), which took away a strength of the Cardinals. Many of the other misses were terrible attempts at layups. It seems like sometimes they will attack the basket with the intent of getting fouled, but you have to make a reasonable attempt at the basket rather than relying on the officials to get you to the line.
  • Sophie Newson (NCC): 6-11 FG, 0-1 3PT, 4-4 FT, 16 pts, 5 reb, 2 stl. Looked good in her return to the starting lineup. She played well in the first half then tapered off later, including keying the wrong end of a four point swing that pretty much tilted momentum to Elmhurst permanently. She got a steal and was trying to start a fast break, got to the lane, then tried to feed one of the Emily's. It was deflected and Sophie got it back, then tried to force it again, this time seeing it stolen and having Elmhurst score an easy bucket. Instead of a 5 point game, it was a 9 point game. Other than that one play, Sophie did a good job of attacking the basket, something I'd like to see her do more of.
  • Meghan Merklein (EC): 13-22 FG, 5-8 3PT, 0-1 FT, 31 pts, 6 reb, 4 ast. It also usually doesn't help comeback attempts when an opposing player absolutely goes off. For a stretch of much of the 2nd half, I got the feeling every shot she took was going in. And guess what? They were. I saw her run back down the court several times smiling. Her 31 tonight was a career high, possibly makes her the top scorer in the conference (over Illinois Wesleyan's Olivia Lett, who had 22 in IWU's win over Augie). The Cardinals tried everything to stop her, it was just her night.
Cardinal Turnover Watch
A new feature, just because it seems necessary. I set the over-under on turnovers for the Cardinals tonight at 20.5. I took the over, official scorer Tye Thompson took the under. His faith was well placed. The Cardinals only turned it over 18 times tonight (compared to 16 by Elmhurst). The chief culprit was once again Helen Muleya, keeping her pace up by turning it over 4 times tonight. Though to be fair to Helen, she is a great perimeter defender, and it showed in her 4 steals.

Final Thoughts
I was prepared for a blowout tonight, and it didn't really happen. Elmhurst came out sluggish to start, and the Cardinals played fairly well. They just got outplayed by a tough team with a hot shooter, much better than how they looked for much of last week's affair against Carthage. They'll get their players back and have some positives to take into Wheaton on Saturday. I'm debating about making the trek out there, so there may be a couple road reports on Saturday. If not, I will for sure be back next week as the Cardinals welcome Illinois Wesleyan.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Paper Champions

I know, I'm a day late to the party. Yes, Alabama won a football game yesterday. Yes, they embarrassed LSU on the field yesterday. Are they national champions? Absolutely not.

I did not watch any of the "national championship" game yesterday. I didn't even watch any highlights. Any information I got out of it was gleaned from Twitter or Facebook pretty much. I had no interest in watching the game, and some people were the same way, with the ratings going down 8 percent from a year ago. There were still a large number of TV's tuned into the game, but I do have to wonder if the people who chose to tune it out had the same reasoning as I did.

About half an hour to an hour before kickoff, I was checking my Twitter and saw a number of tweets about the upcoming game, and that prompted me to tweet, "Too many tweets about the BCS Championship Game." I was a little more detailed on Facebook.

"LSU-Alabama is not a national title game. It's an exhibition rematch between two SEC teams decided by greedy conference commissioners, biased coaches' polls, and poorly written computer formulas. Call me when there's a playoff to decide that these two teams should play for a real title as opposed to this sham of a paper championship. Death to the BCS!"
Shortly after, I was asked by a friend who I thought belonged in that game. Don't get me wrong. Based on the current system, LSU deserved to be here. Alabama had a case, but so did teams like Oklahoma State or Oregon. I know both teams lost a game as well, but both won their conferences. Alabama didn't even play for the conference title. Yes, their one loss was to LSU in overtime. But I can't support a championship game decided the way it is.

I noticed last night that the NCAA and the BCS were in talks about possible changes to the postseason format. I thought I saw something earlier today about the committee deciding against even a plus-one. Big mistake. Even a plus-one is an improvement over the current system. Here's my favorite quote from BCS executive director Bill Hancock:
"Whatever we do, we have to protect the regular season. I think the larger the playoff field, the more damage to the regular season."
So, let me get this straight. You want to preserve the regular season, yet totally disregard it with your decisions for the national champion? They BCS wants to claim that "Every game counts", except LSU-Bama I didn't seem to count because they got a rematch. Rick Reilly argued, "How does winning 1 of 2 make you a champion?" and "They're going to play a rubber game of this best-of-3 LSU-Ala thing, right?"

As far as I'm concerned, the Tide won a glorified exhibition game. By all indications, they looked impressive in doing it. They might be the best team in the nation. I don't know that for sure though. Had they gone through a gauntlet of teams like this one or this one, then beat LSU or whoever, yes, you could call them a champion.

Simply put, if you want to have the best two teams play for the real national title, you need a playoff. Include the teams that win their conferences, and add in deserving "at-large" teams that usually will end up only losing a game or 2 all year. Have them go at each other for four weeks until only one is left standing. If it brings two SEC teams together again, fine. They will have earned it. But don't crown a "national champion" based on the current system.

Monday, January 9, 2012

Wild Wild Card

Well, two out of four isn't bad I guess... even when your pick for the AFC title gets beat.

I caught bits and pieces of 3 out of the 4 games this weekend, unfortunately missing the best play of the weekend in real time. But I think this was the first time since 2006 that we saw all the home teams win in the wild card round, so it's down to all the division champions. It was nice to see a team like Houston win its playoff debut in front of its home crowd, and for the magic of Tim Tebow to return.

I'm typing this as I have ESPN First Take on, and go figure they start with the "All He Does Is Win!" remix.

The divisional round might only hope to offer such drama, so I'm going to revise my picks a little bit since the matchups have changed.

New Orleans @ San Francisco
I'm going to stick to my guns on this pick from last week. The Saints made it two straight weeks where the Lions gave up 45 points and Drew Brees continued to look like, well, Drew Brees. San Francisco is at home and has that tough defense. Brees has yet to win a playoff game on the road, but I figure he can break that trend this week. Saints over 49ers.

Denver @ New England
I was among the people who picked against Denver yesterday because the Steelers play tough defense, even though they were really banged up. At the same time, I underestimated Tim Tebow and the rest of his team. Credit the defense for stepping up and keeping Big Ben under wraps for the most part, and credit guys like Demariyus Thomas for catching stuff thrown at him and using his great speed to get a ton of yards. Against New England? They're healthy and they've already beaten the Broncos once. I see Tebow and company staying in it early again, but in Foxboro, I don't think Tebow wins. Patriots over Broncos.

Houston @ Baltimore
The Bengals were not good on defense Saturday, and Andy Dalton turned it over too many times. But he stayed grounded, and he'll learn from the experience and come back next year to help the Bengals try to make it back. The Texans now have to go to Baltimore to face a very tough Ravens team. They've been inconsistent but have beaten good teams when they've played them. If they don't go pass happy with Joe Flacco, they'll be fine. Ravens over Bengals.

New York @ Green Bay
The Giants' defense was fantastic yesterday, shutting out the Falcons' offense, but this is the Falcons, who just don't seem to have it come January (0-3 in the postseason with Mike Smith and Matt Ryan). They'll get there eventually if they can get another home game, but the Giants seem to be peaking at the right time. This concerns me a little bit as a Packer fan, especially since I remember the 2007 NFC Title game. Both teams are better now than they were that year. Green Bay had a week to get healthy, and they're at home. They'll be ready. The Giants gave them a great game at home, but at the Frozen Tundra? They'll be competitive again, but I think Rodgers and company are ready to make their run at a repeat. Packers over Giants.

I had to adjust the winner of only one game (since I had the Steelers in the Super Bowl again), but I stand by my other picks. I'm now going to go back to listening to the shouting match between Skip Bayless and the world.

Friday, January 6, 2012

NCAA Pipe Dream Playoffs: Death to the BCS Edition

I finished off my version of the playoffs here earlier today, but I did admit in an earlier post that yes, there are flaws to the system. After I finished reading Death to the BCS, I realized I left out a crucial detail in that I didn't give all the conference champions a chance to play for the national title, instead taking the top 16 teams from the BCS rankings. This left out a number of teams that should have stayed. To correct this injustice, I will redo the playoffs quickly with an adjusted bracket. The playoff teams are as follows:

  1. LSU (13-0, SEC champions)
  2. Oklahoma State (11-1, Big 12 champions)
  3. Oregon (11-2, Pac-12 champions)
  4. Alabama (11-1, at large berth)
  5. Stanford (11-1, at large berth)
  6. Wisconsin (11-2, Big 10 champions)
  7. Boise State (11-1, at large berth)
  8. TCU (10-2, Mountain West champions)
  9. Houston (12-1, at large berth)
  10. Virginia Tech (10-2, at large berth)
  11. West Virginia (9-3 Big East champions)
  12. Clemson (10-3, ACC champions)
  13. Southern Mississippi (11-2, Conference USA champions)
  14. Arkansas State (10-2, Sun Belt champions)
  15. Northern Illinois (10-3, MAC champions)
  16. Louisiana Tech (8-4, WAC champions)
It's definitely a change from the Pipe Dream playoff system, but I like this one just as much. Only 9 of the 16 teams from those made it here (which we can attribute to adding in the conference champions and changing around at large bids). The at-large decisions were very tough to make. Alabama, Boise State, Houston and Stanford were the easiest picks since they all only lost once in the regular season. Virginia Tech was the toughest decision to make with how many 2-loss teams there were, but I felt they had the best argument (both losses came to teams in the playoffs).


NCAA Pipe Dream Playoffs: Finals

For Round 1 results, click here.
For Round 2 results, click here.
For Round 3 results, click here.

Out of protest but also out of having a lazy day with my girlfriend on Monday/being busy on Tuesday and Wednesday, I didn't watch any of the Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl or Orange Bowl and didn't turn on the Fiesta Bowl until the missed field goal at the end of regulation by Jordan Williamson. So since the major bowl games were scheduled for particular days in advance, I started running the simulations on Monday. Since this is the bowl game round, I'm simulating every game 5 times to ensure better accuracy. Weather is taken into account for outdoor stadiums, and once again all simulations provided by WhatIfSports.com.

Rose Bowl
(12)Baylor vs (10)Wisconsin
Game 1: BAY 34, WIS 20
Game 2: WIS 44, BAY 37
Game 3: BAY 42, WIS 31
Game 4: WIS 41, BAY 28
Game 5: WIS 21, BAY 14
Final: Wisconsin 34, Baylor 31



Fiesta Bowl
(8)Kansas State vs (6)Arkansas
Game 1: ARK 42, KSU 24
Game 2: ARK 27, KSU 20
Game 3: ARK 33, KSU 17
Game 4: ARK 17, KSU 0
Game 5: ARK 27, KSU 19
Final: Arkansas 29, Kansas State 16



Sugar Bowl
(4) Stanford vs (7) Boise State
Game 1: BSU 41, STAN 24
Game 2: STAN 30, BSU 23
Game 3: STAN 50, BSU 49 (OT)
Game 4: STAN 30, BSU 26
Game 5: STAN 39, BSU 34
Final: Stanford 35, Boise State 34



Orange Bowl
(5)Oregon vs (3)Oklahoma State
Game 1: ORE 54, OSU 47
Game 2: ORE 42, OSU 21
Game 3: OSU 34, ORE 10
Game 4: ORE 35, OSU 31
Game 5: OSU 47, ORE 35
Final: Oregon 35, Oklahoma State 34



 NCAA Pipe Dream Championship Game
(1)LSU vs (2)Alabama
Game 1: ALA 46, LSU 27
Game 2: ALA 52, LSU 24
Game 3: ALA 26, LSU 24
Game 4: ALA 30, LSU 28
Game 5: LSU 41, ALA 40 (OT)
Final: Alabama 39, LSU 28


 
NCAA Pipe Dream Playoff Bracket can be found here.
Losers' Bracket can be found here.
(Brackets created through betterbracketmaker.com.)

I'm counting the results of the Pipe Dream Championship as my BCS title game prediction, even though the BCS is a load of crap. But look at how many great matchups there were in this Bowl round. A lot of 3-2 splits on the simulations, which made for some complicated math, but made it fun. The teams I put into the tournament may not have worked, but the playoff system itself does. It creates intriguing matchups. What more could you want? Other than, you know, more money in your pocket if you're a conference commisioner or bowl executive.


I promised a tournament bracket based on the system created by the authors of Death to the BCS, which I still need to get to. I have to figure out a seeding system for it, and hopefully have something done fairly quickly. And maybe one day soon we can stop having a pipe dream playoff and get one for real.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Game Notes: Carthage College @ North Central College (1/4/12)

Final Score
(25)Carthage 72, NCC 48

Summary
The Cardinals (6-6, 0-1) actually got off to a good start last night and led by as much as 3 early on. The Lady Reds (10-2, 1-0) tied the game at 12 and never trailed the rest of the way, slowly making it a one-sided affair. The Cardinals did all they could before the half to try and stay in the game, but wouldn't get any closer than 7 points. Shots weren't falling and the defense wasn't great, as a 36-25 halftime deficit ballooned to as much as 29. Pretty much what you'd expect from a ranked team.

Key Stats
  • Field Goal Pct: Carthage: 62.5% (30-48), NCC 35.2% (19-54). Subpar shooting nights usually result in losses, especially when you let the other team shoot over 60 percent. Yesterday I praised North Central's defense, and they did well on the perimeter, but there were WAY too many easy passes inside resulting in easy layups (see below). Meanwhile North Central after its early strong start couldn't get a bucket to go, shooting only 32% in the 2nd half.
  • Carthage: 42 points in the paint. The interior defense tonight, normally solid, was poor yesterday. Cailee Corcoran (20 points on 9-11 shooting, plus a pair of freebies) and Diana Jacklin (16 points on 8-12 shooting) tore apart the paint with easy layup after easy layup. When the other team is getting tons of points from its frontcourt, you're in trouble.
  • Helen Muleya (NCC): 3-11 FG, 1-2 3PT, 7 pts, 1 ast, 5 to. I like Helen, but I had to point this out. She's clearly the best perimeter defender on the team and can ignite fast breaks, but she struggles at the point in the halfcourt offense, especially with decision making. Coming into the game, she averaged 4 turnovers per game, and matched that at halftime. You cannot have your floor general turn it over that many times (especially when one of those was an inexcusable 5 second call). To make matters worse, she had horrible shot selection. Most of her misses were weak attempts at layups in traffic. I don't know if she was trying to draw fouls or what the case was, but she needs to go stronger to the basket or not go up at all if there are people in the way. Drive and dish a little bit; she has good post players in the Emily's (Collins and Murphy), and off the bench as well.
Final Thoughts
I'd be lying if I said I didn't expect to get blown out. A ranked team against a squad that has really struggled much of the year? I was impressed we were in the game early, then the Cardinals reminded me that they run the Clogged Toilet Offense. I was shocked at how easily Corcoran and Jacklin were able to score on us last night. On the plus side, while the Cards did turn it over 20 times, they forced 27 turnovers by the Lady Reds. A lot of nights that will get the job done, but not last night, where low post presence ruled. The Cardinals are back in action Saturday at Augustana, and my next Game Notes will be next week.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Foretelling the CCIW Slate

It never really matters what the sport is. The College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin is always a tough gauntlet to get through, one of the best in Division III. I've been seeing play in this conference up close for 4 and a half years now. I've been blessed with regards to the football program, as North Central has at least shared 4 of the last 5 conference titles. Basketball is a whole different animal. There always seems to be a team or two really surprising everyone with how good they are. So with both the men's and women's teams starting conference play tonight, I figured I'd get a preview ready for North Central.

Men's Basketball
I've only seen one men's game so far this year, but it was probably one of their best games all season. Nonetheless this is going to be another tough season. The start of this season is eerily similar to last year's, where the Cardinals struggled in non-conference play before kicking it into high gear once the gauntlet started, going 11-3, tying Augustana for the top spot in conference and getting to host the conference tournament. This year, the usual suspects are back. Augie is #3 in the nation, and Wheaton is also in the Top 25, with Illinois Wesleyan receiving votes. I think those were the other 3 teams in the tournament last year. Meanwhile, here are the standings going into conference play:
The coaches' poll had Augie winning the conference (5 of 8 1st place votes) with North Central picked 2nd. I think if they play the way they did on Friday, this team could easily win the conference. The above teams mentioned will all be tough, but so will the rest of the conference. Carthage lost its top scorer, but added Luke Johnson, a kid I coached when he was in 8th grade at Aurora Christian. You can't sleep on Elmhurst, North Park (since this isn't football), or Millikin.

I still figure that worst-case scenario, the Cardinals finish 4th in the conference, though I figure it'll be closer to 2nd or 3rd. I think it's safe to expect 9 or 10 wins in conference this year, and hopefully pulling out another surprise upset over Augie en route to 2nd place.

Women's Basketball
This side concerns me a lot more. The only CCIW foe ranked right now is Carthage, and no other school received votes. But that doesn't mean that this conference isn't good. Elmhurst matched Carthage's record out of conference, and going into conference play every team is above .500.
Last year Carthage finished 4th in conference, good enough to make the tournament, and this year they're picked to win it over perennial power Illinois Wesleyan (by 1 point, actually). North Central is picked to finish 7th. In their second year under Michelle Roof, the Cardinals do a good job running the transition offense Coach Roof loves, but when they get into a half-court set... ugh. I still think the defense and rebounding are two key strengths of the Cardinals, and if they play tough on that end and get some easy baskets the other way, this team will be tough to beat. This also assumes they can solve their half-court offense woes. If they do, this team can earn a berth in the conference tournament. I don't know if I can expect it this year, but it's not impossible. I figure 5th or 6th place sounds about right for this team.

We get an early test right away as Carthage makes its way down from Kenosha tonight. The women play at 5:30, and I will be behind the mic for that game. I don't think I'll be in attendance for the men's game tonight, but that should be a fun one as well. I know my old friends at FM89 will have the call for both games if you can't make it out to Merner Fieldhouse for the games. I may try to live-tweet a little bit throughout the game as well, though it can be hard in the flow of the game to pull out my iPhone to make it work.

We raise our voices high. Go Cardinals!

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

NFL Awards Race

I know I'm a little late to the party, but Week 17 really threw a wrench into the decision for who the Most Valuable Player was in one of the most popular NFL seasons ever. Most of the experts agree that it's down to a 3 man race, and to no surprise it's all quarterbacks. It's almost a shame that you have to be a quarterback or a running back to win MVP, but that just seems to be the reality of it all. There's some other interesting races for major awards as well.

Offensive Rookie of the Year
Cam Newton, Carolina
310-517 (60.0%), 4051 yds, 21 TD, 17 INT; 106 car, 706 yds, 14 TD

A lot of times having the top pick of the draft can be a crapshoot and players don't always pan out (see Russell, JaMarcus). Many people were skeptical of Cam coming into this year, but he has done a great job silencing all the critics. Arguably the best dual threat quarterback since Michael Vick, and this is just as a rookie. He had a respectable 84.5 quarterback rating, and a QBR of 56.6, 16th in the NFL. For a rookie, to be in the middle of the pack is all right, and he seems like he's got a lot of potential as the Panthers develop their talent. You have to give Andy Dalton credit too, but Newton played better I think.

Defensive Rookie of the Year
Ryan Kerrigan, Washington
63 total tackles (41 solo), 7.5 sacks, 1 INT (TD), 4 FF

This one was a bit harder to decide on. Kerrigan was tied for 4th among rookies in sacks, 10th in total tackles, tied for 2nd in forced fumbles, and had the pick-6. You can definitely also make arguments for guys like Von Miller (11.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles,64 tackles) or Aldon Smith (14 sacks, leading all rookies, plus a safety, 2 FF's and a recovery). I'm choosing to go with a guy who could do it all his rookie season. I feel bad that he's stuck on Washington, but the kid has a good future.

Offensive Player of the Year
Drew Brees, New Orleans
468-657 (71.2%), 5476 yds, 46 TD, 14 INT

There was no real standout rusher this year despite 14 players making it to 1000 yards (and without injuries there would have been a few more), and Drew Brees rewrote the book on passing this year. He threw an average of 41 times per game, which is a lot, but he completed on average 28 or 29 of those for a good chunk of yards. He had a really good passer rating (110.6) and QBR (84.0). Plus the fact that he broke Dan Marino's old passing yards record merits the award too. Stay tuned for more on Brees.

Defensive Player of the Year
Cliff Avril, Detroit
36 total tackles (29 solo), 11 sacks, 1 INT (TD), 6 FF, 3 recoveries (1 TD)

Defense is a harder side of the field to pick one outstanding player for because there's so many important things. Arguments could be made for Jared Allen (league-leading 22 sacks), Charles Woodson (tied for league lead with 7 picks), or even Terrell Suggs (league-leading 7 FF's, 70 total tackles), but I think Avril had an underrated overall season. At defensive end, you don't pick up a lot of tackles, but he did a great job getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks (11th in the league), 6 FF's (second only to Suggs), and scored a pair of touchdowns. I would be more than okay with one of the above guys winning (or even another player with a convincing enough case), but I would like to make a case for a guy who might not get a lot of votes.

Coach of the Year
Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco
13-3 (10-2 conference, 5-1 division), +151 points (11th PF, 2nd PA)

Took a team that went 6-10 last year and in his first year improved the team by 7 games. He helped revive Alex Smith's career, and turned the Niners into a great traditional team (pound the rock, play tough defense). That he did so in his first year speaks volumes. I would have said Mike McCarthy of Green Bay had the Pack gone unbeaten, but he deserves at least second place for taking the defending champs with a shortened training camp coming off a title and potential for Disease of More destruction. Credit him for keeping that team grounded and being able to survive so many teams' best shots all season long.

Monday, January 2, 2012

NFL Playoff Preview

Happy new year everyone! It's seemed like this NFL season has gone by really quickly, and that just yesterday Aaron Rodgers was helping get Green Bay off to a 13-0 start. And yet here we are, 17 weeks of football gone by, with so many great stories and moments that made it seem like the lockout never happened. Now we get down to the great part that college football is passing up on: the playoffs. I'll go over each conference before making an unofficial Super Bowl prediction. Who knows if I'll even get these picks right?

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE
To no surprise, the Patriots (13-3) fell in line behind Tom Brady and grabbed the top seed. They get a bye along with the Ravens (12-4), who look like they're getting back into form. Meanwhile, Houston (10-6) gets its first ever playoff game at home, and the Broncos (8-8) backed into a division title and a home game. Pittsburgh (12-4) is going to be a tough out, and I was a little surprised that Cincinnati (9-7) was able to sneak in for the other spot. Kudos to guys like Andy Dalton for never giving up.

Saturday: Bengals @ Texans. Houston is really not in good shape right now, having lost 3 in a row after clinching the division... not how you want to go into battle. But I'm not sure how sold I am on Cincy either. They did lose this week, but it was to a Baltimore team with motivation to win. I think I have to lean towards the road team in this one. Bengals over Texans.

Sunday:  Steelers @ Broncos. I like the Denver defense and all, and I would put myself in the camp that supports Tim Tebow, but he really has not been very good the last few weeks. And he's facing a great defense in the group led by Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. Steelers over Broncos.

Divisional Round: A decent Bengals team that was able to get by a hurting Texans team then gets Tom Brady and Company? Have fun with that. Meanwhile, we get a third Ravens-Steelers matchup that I would only assume has to be a bloodbath this time since it hasn't happened yet this year. As a Packer fan I know too well that it's hard to beat a team 3 times in one season (see Wild Card loss to the Cardinals in 2010). Patriots over Bengals, Steelers over Ravens.

Conference Championship: Big Ben plays well in big games, and the Patriot defense is absolutely terrible. Say no more. Steelers over Patriots.

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE
Green Bay (15-1), other than Kansas City, looked like probably the best team in the NFL en route to home field throughout. San Francisco (13-3) looked great this year too in what is likely a Coach of the Year season for Jim Harbaugh. New Orleans (13-3) is back again and will be a tough out, especially in the Superdome, while the Giants (9-7) are getting hot at the right time. Atlanta (10-6) is hoping to look better in this postseason than last year, and the Lions (10-6) are back for the first time since last millenium.

Saturday: Lions @ Saints. Detroit, playing for playoff seeding, gave up 480 yards passing and 6 touchdowns to Matt Flynn. Granted it was to most of Green Bay's best receivers, but consider that, then remember that Drew Brees set a new passing yards record, and realize that Detroit will have to wait at least another year for some great January moments. Saints over Lions.

Sunday: Falcons @ Giants. This one is more up for grabs. Atlanta hasn't really impressed me this year, and the Giants have had good and bad games all year, but they're on a roll right now. I find it hard for Atlanta to come into the Meadowlands and steal a win against Eli Manning, who is making a great argument for his inclusion among the elite quarterbacks of the NFL. Giants over Falcons.

Divisional Round: Chalk played out here and we saw Green Bay barely escape against the Giants in the Meadowlands earlier this year. At Lambeau with a week to recover, I think Rodgers and crew have a little more breathing room this time. Meanwhile, San Francisco has the right strategy for this time of year, but Drew Brees is Drew Brees and I have no idea what to expect from Alex Smith in January. Packers over Giants, Saints over 49ers.

Conference Championship: It almost seems like destiny that we get a rematch of the season opener. Problem is, in September it was about 60-70 degrees warmer. Rodgers showed last postseason he can pass well in cold weather. Brees and company have problems (2007 at the Bears for the NFC title, last year in Seattle to name a couple instances.) That said, this is probably the scariest matchup for the Packers all season, but I give the edge to Green Bay (I know, I'm biased). Packers over Saints.

SUPER BOWL XLVI 
Another rematch between two of the best teams in the NFL. Credit Pittsburgh's defense again all you want, and criticize Green Bay's all you want, but there are two major considerations for this rematch.

1. Yes, the Packer defense relies a little too heavily on the takeaway (especially the interception), but in 15 of their 16 games this season they recorded at least one. That's scary consistency. Granted, the one game they didn't get one was the one they lost, but I see that game as a wake up call.

2. I'm not sure if people remember this or not. Let's look back at a quote from ESPN Stats and Info from before Super Bowl XLV.
"This will be Aaron Rodgers' 13th career start indoors. While his record indoors is just 6-6, Rodgers has been spectacular playing inside. He has thrown 25 touchdown passes with just six interceptions and has completed 68.4 percent of his passes. No quarterback since 2008 has a higher passer rating indoors than Rodgers' 111.5."-Vince Masi, ESPN S&I
Add in his numbers from this year, plus the Super Bowl, and he's thrown 35 touchdowns with just 6 picks in his career indoors. The accuracy and passer ratings I'm sure are similar. The dude is lethal anywhere, but even more so inside. In Indy? The Steelers (or any AFC team for that matter) have no chance. Packers over Steelers.

I will freely admit that there is likely a bias to this since I am a Packers' fan and see the team's flaws as no problem. The NFL always seems to remind us that any team can win on any given Sunday. The Giants, Saints, and Steelers could all take great care of the ball and keep Rodgers off the field and knock off the defending champs. But I also see in Green Bay a team that knows how to win, hasn't suffered from the Disease of More, and has a great chance of being the first team in a decade to repeat as champions.